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Predictions & Projections
David Dorey  

Sortable Player Projections | Game Predictions Summary | Projections by Team

WEEK 10
2011
OAK at SD (thu) DEN at KC * NE at NYJ * STL at CLE
* ARI at PHI * DET at CHI * NO at ATL * TEN at CAR
BAL at SEA HOU at TB * NYG at SF WAS at MIA
* UPDATED * BUF at DAL JAC at IND * PIT at CIN MIN at GB (mon)

Prediction: MIN 13, GB 34

Players to Watch: Christian Ponder

This is the second meeting between the 8-0 Packers and the 2-6 Vikings. Just three weeks ago, the Packers pulled out a 33-27 win in Minny. This one should go with less of a question of the better team and the Monday night venue is tailor made for Rodgers to shine.

Minnesota Vikings
Homefield: Metrodome
FieldTurf
  Opp Score   Opp Score
1 @SD 17-24 10 @GB -
2 TB 20-24 11 OAK -
3 DET 23-26 12 @ATL -
4 @KC 17-22 13 DEN -
5 ARI 34-10 14 @DET -
6 @CHI 10-39 15 NO -
7 GB 27-33 16 @WAS -
8 @CAR 24-21 17 CHI -
9 Bye -      
Vikings Report | Statistics | Roster
MINNESOTA at GB Rush Catch Pass
QB Christian Ponder - - 230,1
RB Adrian Peterson 100 10 -
TE Vishante Shiancoe - 40,1 -
WR Devin Aromashodu - 50 -
WR Michael Jenkins - 30 -
WR Percy Harvin - 50 -
PK Ryan Longwell 2 FG 1 XP -
Pregame Notes: The Vikings come off their bye having last actually won a road game in Carolina but the game previous were these Packers coming to town. There is no pretense that the season is already over but at least there are strides being made for the future with the rookie quarterback Christian Ponder. Adrian Peterson has been a machine as well but it's almost been a waste of one of his prime years other than with fantasy owners.

QUARTERBACK: Christian Ponder passed for only 219 yards and two scores in the first meeting with the Packers - his first ever start no less and he then had 236 yards and a score in Carolina to round out his career thus far. On the road Ponder is likely to be a bit more intimated in Green Bay though he rose to the occasion in Carolina in only his second game.

The Packers have been plenty kind to quarterbacks this year but relying on anything more than one score and moderate yardage from a rookie in his third ever start is probably optimistic.

RUNNING BACKS: Adrian Peterson has been a machine when he is at home with a seven touchdowns over four games played there along with three monster yardage games. Peterson rushed for 175 yards on 24 carries and scored once on the visiting Packers for his biggest game of the year. Now he hits the road where he has never been better than 98 yards and has scored only twice in four trips.

The Packers at home have not allowed any runner to score though a few have decent yardage efforts. Peterson is a must start and should have decent yardage but unlikely a big game or even a touchdown this week. Peterson seems to be better with Ponder under center.

WIDE RECEIVERS: Michael Jenkins had a 72 yard catch to open up the last meeting and he ended with 111 yards and a score - by far his best effort of the year and predicated really on one long catch and his first 100 yard game of his entire career. He returned to a more normal 30 yards the next week. No other wide receiver had more than 35 yards against the Packers last time. This unit remains one of the least effective in the league with only four scores caught all year. Percy Harvin should be better this week than his two catches for 15 yards the last time since his ribs have healed more over the bye.

The Vikes are going to run as much as they can since they cannot compete in the air. Harvin is marginally attractive for yardage. The one passing score could end up anywhere but I am assigning it to the tight ends more as a place holder.

TIGHT ENDS: Vishante Shiancoe scored once in the previous Packers game and had 45 yards on four catches. He followed that up with 37 yards on three receptions in Carolina and remains an outlet for Ponder. I am assigning the score here just to put it somewhere. He is only slightly more likely to score than the rest.

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM QB RB WR TE PK DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points MIN 29 9 23 22 19 14
Preventing Fantasy Points GB 31 11 30 29 11 8


Green Bay Packers
Homefield: Lambeau Field
Grass
  Opp Score   Opp Score
1 NO 42-34 10 MIN -
2 @CAR 30-23 11 TB -
3 @CHI 27-17 12 @DET -
4 DEN 49-23 13 @NYG -
5 @ATL 25-14 14 OAK -
6 STL 24-3 15 @KC -
7 @MIN 33-27 16 CHI -
8 Bye - 17 DET -
9 @SD 45-38      
Packers Report | Statistics | Roster
GREEN BAY vs MIN Rush Catch Pass
QB Aaron Rodgers - - 320,3
RB Ryan Grant 30 20 -
RB James Starks 70 10 -
TE Jermichael Finley - 30 -
WR Greg Jennings - 130,2 -
WR Jordy Nelson - 80,1 -
WR Donald Driver - 20 -
WR James Jones - 40 -
PK Mason Crosby 2 FG 4 XP -

Pregame Notes: The Packers continue to roll along as the #1 seed in the NFC with an unbeaten string that is hard to see where it might end - if it does. The Packers are not blowing every team out but are always just good enough to win no matter what the score is. The scary part is that this is the same Packers team that ran the table in the playoffs last year only this one has all the players healthy.

I like a defensive score in this game.

QUARTERBACK: Not only did Aaron Rodgers pass for 335 yards and three scores in Minny three weeks ago, he is back home now where he has never had fewer than 312 yards and three touchdowns. Rodgers is the golden boy quarterback this year. Enjoy.

RUNNING BACKS: No changes to the duo that do not complement each other, they only detract from what could be with one back. James Starks is the more productive and had 75 yards on 13 runs in Minny but has only scored once this year. Ryan Grant only gained 29 yards on nine runs in that game and that is around his weekly norm. Plus he has not scored this year. The Vikings are decent against the run anyway so expect more of the same.

WIDE RECEIVERS: Greg Jennings easily led all receivers in the previous meeting with the Vikes when he snared seven catches 147 yards and one touchdown. With six scores and six games of 80+ yards, he's one of the lowest risk wideouts in the league. Jordy Nelson only caught four passes for 52 yards in the last meeting but he has scored in every home game and never gained less than 77 yards. James Jones turned in 63 yards on four receptions in Minny and he has scored in each of the last two home matchups.

This is the week - play your Packers wideouts. Actually, pretty much any week.

TIGHT ENDS: Jermichael Finley only caught two passes for 13 yards in the previous meeting though he scored once. His five touchdowns this year have all been in road efforts and none at home. Expect a lesser showing from Finley this week since he just disappears when back in Green Bay.

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM QB RB WR TE PK DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points GB 1 25 1 11 5 3
Preventing Fantasy Points MIN 26 17 26 20 32 9

WEEK 10
2011
OAK at SD (thu) DEN at KC NE at NYJ STL at CLE
ARI at PHI DET at CHI NO at ATL TEN at CAR
BAL at SEA HOU at TB NYG at SF WAS at MIA
  BUF at DAL JAC at IND PIT at CIN MIN at GB (mon)

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