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Predictions & Projections
David Dorey  

Sortable Player Projections | Game Predictions Summary | Projections by Team

WEEK 10
2011
OAK at SD (thu) DEN at KC * NE at NYJ * STL at CLE
* ARI at PHI * DET at CHI * NO at ATL * TEN at CAR
BAL at SEA HOU at TB * NYG at SF WAS at MIA
* UPDATED * BUF at DAL JAC at IND * PIT at CIN MIN at GB (mon)

Prediction: NE 17, NYJ 24

Update: Both Kevin Faulk and BenJarvus Green-Ellis are listed as questionable and were limited in all practices this week. Green-Ellis has been like this before and played and Faulk may show up as well but as with all things Patriot - there is a risk.

Here is a must watch game for the AFC East title. The Jets, Patriots and Bills are now locked at 5-3 and the division is wide open unlike any time in the recent past. The Pats are only 2-2 in road games and are coming off back-to-back losses for only the third time in the last decade. The Jets are 4-0 at home and on a three game winning streak. This is a replay of week five when the Patriots won 30-21 in New England.

New England Patriots
Homefield: Gillette Stadium
FieldTurf
  Opp Score   Opp Score
1 @MIA 38-24 10 @NYJ -
2 SD 35-21 11 KC -
3 @BUF 31-34 12 @PHI -
4 @OAK 31-19 13 IND -
5 NYJ 30-21 14 @WAS -
6 DAL 20-16 15 @DEN -
7 Bye - 16 MIA -
8 @PIT 17-25 17 BUF -
9 NYG 20-24 - - -
Patriots Report | Statistics | Roster
NEW ENGLAND at NYJ Rush Catch Pass
QB Tom Brady - - 270,2
RB BenJarvus Green-Ellis 40 10 -
TE Rob Gronkowski - 50 -
TE Aaron Hernandez - 60,1 -
WR Chad Ochocinco - 10 -
WR Deion Branch - 40 -
WR Wes Welker - 90,1 -
PK S. Gostkowski 1 FG 2 XP -
Pregame Notes: Ah yes, week five. Back when the Pats were on their streak of 30+ point games and home wins. Then Dallas ruined the point streak. The Steelers clubbed them in Pittsburgh and the Giants came in and ruined the home win record. It is like no one respects traditions anymore. A win here at least sweeps the pesky Jets but tables have turned in the last month since they last met. Is it conceivable that the Pats could lose three in a row?

QUARTERBACK: After starting the year on a red hot streak, Tom Brady has cooled at least some and it started in the last matchup with the Jets when he passed for 321 yards and only one touchdown - his only single score game of the year. He also had a season high four sacks in that game and one interception. Brady still delivers strong stats, just no longer "top of the chart" stuff.

The Jets at home have only allowed three touchdowns over four games. Brady is a must start and should still end up with decent yardage but more than one touchdown will be out of character for the Jets who will be plenty motivated as well.

RUNNING BACKS: After leading all runners in week eight, Kevin Faulk had to rest his 35-year old knees and did not play last week. This backfield is still mostly for BenJarvus Green-Ellis though will always be a risk to rely on as was shown in week eight. BGE rushed for 136 yards on 27 carries and scored twice in the previous meeting with the Jets in what was clearly his best game of the year. It was also far away the worst game for the Jets but it was indicative of their dichotomy.

The Jets on the road have allowed six scored and two runners have topped 100 yards. At home, only two tailbacks have scored and no one has run for more than 88 yards. The Jets at home are a different animal and not a nice one. After being burned by him last time, have to believe he will be attended to better this time around.

WIDE RECEIVERS: Deion Branch has been less effective in recent games but recorded a score on seven catches for 74 yards in the previous Jets meeting. It was his best fantasy game but he has been rather quiet away from home in recent weeks though his other two touchdowns came in those away games along with minimal yardage. Wes Welker caught five passes for 124 yards on the Jets in Week five and Darrell Revis was unable to always lock on him. Chad Ochocinco has not caught a pass since the last Jets meeting.

Welker is a must start as he has shown before but Branch has been little used away from home and is not likely to score here for the third game in a row. It all depends on which player ends up with Revis mostly but in New York is as bad as it gets. The Jets have only allowed four touchdowns to the position and none at home since the season opener.

TIGHT ENDS: The two tight ends have been heavily used all year and especially in recent games. Rob Gronkowski finally scored last week to end his five game drought and turned in 101 yards against the Giants while Aaron Hernandez has scored in every game he has played this year except one - the Jets game. Gronk ended up with 4-31 in that matchup while Hernandez left with 5-56. The Jets have only allowed one touchdown to this position this year but the Pats will be working the duo the entire game and one will end up with a score - more likely Hernandez.

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM QB RB WR TE PK DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points NE 3 18 6 1 13 25
Preventing Fantasy Points NYJ 1 25 3 8 10 28


New York Jets
Homefield: Meadowlands Stadium
FieldTurf
  Opp Score   Opp Score
1 DAL 27-24 10 NE -
2 JAC 32-3 11 @DEN -
3 @OAK 24-34 12 BUF -
4 @BAL 17-34 13 @WAS -
5 @NE 21-30 14 KC -
6 MIA 24-6 15 @PHI -
7 SD 27-21 16 NYG -
8 Bye - 17 @MIA -
9 @BUF 27-11      
Jets Report | Statistics | Roster
NY JETS vs NE Rush Catch Pass
QB Mark Sanchez - - 250,2
RB Shonn Greene 90,1 10 -
RB LaDainian Tomlinson 10 30 -
TE Dustin Keller - 20 -
WR Plaxico Burress - 50,1 -
WR Jeremy Kerley - 30 -
WR Santonio Holmes - 70,1 -
PK Nick Folk 1 FG 3 XP -

Pregame Notes: The Jets have made a nice turn around since the loss in New England with three straight wins including a key victory in Buffalo just last week. The defense has been good all year but at least the offense is posting points and the have shelved the notion that they have to use all their cool wide receivers. This week may be the toughest remaining game to play and the most crucial as well.

QUARTERBACK: Mark Sanchez has gone from being a decent fantasy quarterback with multiple scores to to a far less productive or consistent player thanks to the "return to the run" by the offense. Sanchez always scores at home and passed for two touchdowns with 166 yards against the Pats a month ago.

The Patriots have allowed two scores to nearly every opponent along with major yardage. On the road, no opponent has thrown for less than 344 yards. That's four different games where the other team averaged 374 passing yards. Have to like the two scores again here and the yardage should be much better - not likely 350+ yards but by Sanchez standards.

RUNNING BACKS: Shonn Greene was checked for a concussion in the Bills game but came out okay though he did not return to the game. Green already rushed for 83 yards and one score on 23 carries against the Pats a month ago in one of his best games of the year. LaDainian Tomlinson only managed two carries for 13 yards in that game and has been a nonfactor in games since that week. Greene is running better in recent weeks and the Patriots are much less adept at stopping the run away from home. Expect a decent to good yardage effort here along with a score for Greene.

WIDE RECEIVERS: Plaxico Burress played last week despite a sore back and was effective anyway with a season best 79 yards on five catches in Buffalo. Burress only turned in three receptions for 42 yards in New England while Santonio Holmes scored once and gained 60 yards on four receptions.

No need to detail it - the Pats have one of the worst secondaries on the planet and both Burress and Holmes are must starts this week. Jeremy Kerley had a score in the previous meeting but has been lingering around just a catch or two per week.

TIGHT ENDS: Dustin Keller was also tested for a concussion last week and passed. He has not scored since week two and been good for only marginal yardage since. On the road against the Pats, he only had one catch for seven yards so figure on him more as a blocker again this week.

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM QB RB WR TE PK DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points NYJ 14 16 24 15 16 5
Preventing Fantasy Points NE 30 19 31 13 16 13

WEEK 10
2011
OAK at SD (thu) DEN at KC NE at NYJ STL at CLE
ARI at PHI DET at CHI NO at ATL TEN at CAR
BAL at SEA HOU at TB NYG at SF WAS at MIA
  BUF at DAL JAC at IND PIT at CIN MIN at GB (mon)

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