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Predictions & Projections
David Dorey  

Sortable Player Projections | Game Predictions Summary | Projections by Team

WEEK 10
2011
OAK at SD (thu) DEN at KC * NE at NYJ * STL at CLE
* ARI at PHI * DET at CHI * NO at ATL * TEN at CAR
BAL at SEA HOU at TB * NYG at SF WAS at MIA
* UPDATED * BUF at DAL JAC at IND * PIT at CIN MIN at GB (mon)

Prediction: NYG 20, SF 24

Update: Ahmad Bradshaw has been ruled out already and will have Brandon Jacobs sub for him again this week. Hakeem Nicks is a game time decision this week because of his hamstring and only had some limited work on Thursday and Friday. Nicks won't be 100% if he does play. Check game inactives if you need to rely on Nicks this week but temper your expectations with an injured player going against a very tough defense on the road.

Update #2: Mario Manningham experienced swelling in his knee on Saturday and will be a game time decision. Check inactives if you intend on using Manningham.

The Giants are on a three game winning streak and just won in New England. They sport a 3-1 road record and at 6-2 are two games up in the NFC East. The 49ers are 7-1 and on a six game winning streak. A good game to watch but the homefield and better defense should be the difference for the 49ers.

New York Giants
Homefield: Meadowlands Stadium
FieldTurf
  Opp Score   Opp Score
1 @WAS 14-28 10 @SF -
2 STL 28-16 11 PHI -
3 @PHI 29-16 12 @NO -
4 @ARI 31-27 13 GB -
5 SEA 25-36 14 @DAL -
6 BUF 27-24 15 WAS -
7 Bye - 16 @NYJ -
8 MIA 20-17 17 DAL -
9 @NE 24-20 - - -
Giants Report | Statistics | Roster
NY GIANTS at SF Rush Catch Pass
QB Eli Manning - - 260,2
RB Brandon Jacobs 50 10 -
RB Ahmad Bradshaw 50 20 -
TE Jake Ballard - 60 -
WR Victor Cruz - 60,1 -
WR Hakeem Nicks - 50 -
WR Mario Manningham - 50,1 -
PK Lawrence Tynes 2 FG 2 XP -
Pregame Notes: Big win over the Pats helps cement the Giants as the front runner in the NFC East but the rubber hits the road starting now and the remaining schedule has both Dallas meetings, @SF, @NO and @NYJ. If the Giants can navigate that stretch with only a loss or two they are a lock for a couple of games in January. This week they face the negative image of the Patriots and a much different challenge.

QUARTERBACK: Eli Manning continues to be a solid fantasy play with multiple touchdowns in six of eight games and 250+ yards nearly every week. Against the admittedly soft Patriots secondary, Manning threw for 250 yards and two scores and that has been right where he ends up in most weeks.

That's high side for what to expect playing the 49ers who have only allowed 11 passing touchdowns this season. But the 49ers will play great rushing defense and force the Giants to compete with the pass so Manning is a safe play for a good game and has the chance for higher yardage. No opponent has passed for more than two scores on the 49ers.

RUNNING BACKS: Ahmad Bradshaw was out last week and Brandon Jacobs took the start to end up with 50 yards on 13 carries and added 38 yards on five catches. Nothing splashy but an upgrade from his normal production. Bradshaw has not been ruled out yet so I will include him for now and update as needed. His foot injury is still somewhat undefined and his prognosis is different with each source. I will assume a limited Bradshaw will play this week and update as needed.

The reality is that Bradshaw or not, the Giants are unlikely to mount any run game against the #1 defense against the position. No runner has score on the 49ers and none have rushed for more than 64 yards. Playing the #1 defense on the road is not a recipe for success.

WIDE RECEIVERS: Hakeem Nicks missed last week with a hamstring issue but is improving and has not been ruled out yet. The top two games by Nicks this year came in road tilts against WAS and ARI. He would add a lot to the effort if he can play since the 49ers are weaker against the pass. Victor Cruz (6-91) was the lead receiver against the Pats and has been on a red hot streak with five of the last six games producing 90+ yards. Even Mario Manningham has scored in each of the last two games. This unit is getting the job done but will be challenged this week.

The 49ers secondary has been burned by the elite #1 wideouts that Nicks belongs to and there should be a good deal of passing in this matchup that will mostly end up here. Unless Ballard takes a score, both touchdowns will end up in this unit. Manningham is in the right place for one and Nicks could as well if he proves healthy enough.

TIGHT ENDS: Jake Ballard has to be the biggest surprise at tight end since he entered the season with nearly no expectations and now has three scores and five games over 50 yards including each of the last three. Ballard has a shot at a touchdown in this game and two of his scores were in road matchups but figure him more safe for solid yardage.

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM QB RB WR TE PK DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points NYG 7 12 4 13 27 8
Preventing Fantasy Points SF 19 1 18 19 2 5


San Francisco 49ers
Homefield: Monster Park
Grass
  Opp Score   Opp Score
1 SEA 33-17 10 NYG -
2 DAL 24-27 11 ARI -
3 @CIN 13-8 12 @BAL -
4 @PHI 24-23 13 STL -
5 TB 48-3 14 @ARI -
6 @DET 25-19 15 PIT -
7 Bye - 16 @SEA -
8 CLE 20-10 17 @STL -
9 @WAS 19-11      
49ers Report | Statistics | Roster
SAN FRANCISCO vs NYG Rush Catch Pass
QB Alex Smith - - 170,1
RB Frank Gore 120,2 - -
RB Kendall Hunter 30 - -
TE Vernon Davis - 40 -
WR Braylon Edwards - 40 -
WR Michael Crabtree - 60,1 -
PK David Akers 1 FG 3 XP -

Pregame Notes: At 7-1 the 49ers could just quit and the season would already be a success. Seven wins may have already won that division. The defense continues to be one of the best in the league and not just when they are playing at home. The offense is a classic error-free punishing run-based attack that is almost a throwback in this age of complicated pass-heavy offenses. There are still several tough spots left on the schedule but so are five meetings with NFC West divisional rivals. Those are becoming freebies.

QUARTERBACK: Alex Smith continues to provide the role as game manager with one score a week and moderate yardage at best but only two interceptions all year and those were on the road. He has almost no fantasy value with such low numbers weekly but at least does score in almost every game.

The Giants secondary has been much improved from the start of the season and has only allowed nine passing scores so far though that was helped by facing teams like STL, SEA, MIA and ARI. Smith is almost robotic now, no reason to expect different.

RUNNING BACKS: Frank Gore underwent x-rays on his ankle after the Redskins win but everything looked fine and his ankle is not expected to be an issue this week. Gore is on a five game stretch of 100+ yard rushing efforts and has five touchdowns on the season. His role as a receiver has been minimal but he has scored in each of the last three home games and enjoyed big games there as well.

The Giants on the road are much less accomplished against the run with five runners topping 100 yards on them and six scoring once or more. Beanie Wells gained 138 and three scores in week four on this defense. Gore should spit out yet another 100+ yard effort and stands a great chance for one score and possibly two. He's a must start anyway.

WIDE RECEIVERS: Braylon Edwards needed x-rays as well after bruising his shoulder against the Redskins but he too is expected to be fine this week and I will not consider him limited unless later word changes the current view. Edwards still has yet to score as a 49er and has not bee better than 42 yards in a game. Michael Crabtree continues to crank out the 50+ yard games without managing to top 70 yards so far. This is one of the least productive units in the entire league and a home game is not going to change that. The touchdown pass could end up anywhere though the Giants are weakest against this position.

The score for Crabtree is more placeholder than certainty.

TIGHT ENDS: Vernon Davis has really gone quiet in this offense and has not topped 50 yards in any game since the season opener. He has three scores on the year and there's no sign that will change this week. Davis has been a disappointment but one that the 49ers just have different plans for than receiving.

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM QB RB WR TE PK DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points SF 27 10 31 7 2 4
Preventing Fantasy Points NYG 16 22 23 6 9 12

WEEK 10
2011
OAK at SD (thu) DEN at KC NE at NYJ STL at CLE
ARI at PHI DET at CHI NO at ATL TEN at CAR
BAL at SEA HOU at TB NYG at SF WAS at MIA
  BUF at DAL JAC at IND PIT at CIN MIN at GB (mon)

a d v e r t i s e m e n t