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Predictions & Projections
David Dorey  

Sortable Player Projections | Game Predictions Summary | Projections by Team

WEEK 10
2011
OAK at SD (thu) DEN at KC * NE at NYJ * STL at CLE
* ARI at PHI * DET at CHI * NO at ATL * TEN at CAR
BAL at SEA HOU at TB * NYG at SF WAS at MIA
* UPDATED * BUF at DAL JAC at IND * PIT at CIN MIN at GB (mon)

Prediction: STL 13, CLE 17

Players to Watch: Austin Pettis

Update: Danario Alexander is out again because of his hamstring and Lance Kendricks will also be sidelined this week with his foot injury. Sam Bradford has been limited all week and is listed as questionable but will play and will be better than he was last week.

This is going to be a tough one to watch. The 1-7 Rams are 0-4 in road games and visit the 3-5 Browns who are just 2-2 at home because Miami and Seattle showed up and were barely squeaked past. Whatever happens here is not going to involve many points so it is a coin flip to see which team makes the most mistakes. Here is the great part - Rams offense decent, defense bad. Browns offense bad, defense decent. This is a mess.

St. Louis Rams
Homefield: Edward Jones Dome
FieldTurf
  Opp Score   Opp Score
1 PHI 13-31 10 @CLE -
2 @NYG 16-28 11 SEA -
3 BAL 7-37 12 ARI -
4 WAS 10-17 13 @SF -
5 Bye - 14 @SEA -
6 @GB 3-24 15 CIN -
7 @DAL 7-34 16 @PIT -
8 NO 31-21 17 SF -
9 @ARI 13-19      
Rams Report | Statistics | Roster
ST. LOUIS AT CLE Rush Catch Pass
QB Sam Bradford - - 220
RB Steven Jackson 100,1 20 -
TE Lance Kendricks - 20 -
WR Brandon Lloyd - 50 -
WR Austin Pettis - 20 -
WR Brandon Gibson - 40 -
WR Danario Alexander - 20 -
PK Josh Brown 2 FG 1 XP -
Pregame Notes: Sam Bradford was able to play last week but the result was the same - it just took overtime to get there. The fun from beating the Saints is already waning but at least the remaining schedule is really very light. Four of the next five opponents have losing records and could be ripe for a beating. This week the Rams get a chance to face an injury decimated Browns squad.

QUARTERBACK: Sam Bradford returned from his high ankle sprain and played without any setbacks in Arizona when he passed for 255 yards and one interception. He missed two games with the injury but should be even better this week. The problem though is that in six games played, he has totaled only three touchdowns and posted just one score in a road game.

Freakish Saints game aside, the Rams are still struggling to score anything more than one touchdown in any game. The Browns secondary has been outstanding this year and allowed just eight touchdowns and only two quarterbacks were able to throw for over 200 yards on them. Bradford would be doing well enough to score even once on the road.

RUNNING BACKS: Steven Jackson comes off his second straight game with 100+ rushing yards and he's been much better in the last month finally healthy. Jackson has as many rushing touchdowns (4) as Bradford has passing scores. His role as a receiver has been largely ignored but Jackson is running as well as he has in years.

The Browns weakness is against the run and they allowed four scores to running backs over the last four weeks. This should be a grind it out, low scoring sort of game that plays into Jackson's wheelhouse. He should have 25+ carries here and turn in no less than a good game - everyone else has.

WIDE RECEIVERS: Greg Salas was lost for the season with a broken leg and in his place Austin Pettis was moved up and responded with four catches for 43 yards at the end of the Cardinals game. Pettis has done little in his rookie season so far but should be getting a chance for more playing time - it is worth a casual eye for the future. Danario Alexander may not play this week because of his hamstring but I will assume he can at least in a limited fashion and update if needed. The Rams have now placed Danny Amendola and Salas on injured reserve and even Mike Sims-Walker who was cut ended up on the Jags IR. The Rams have been hard on receivers for the second season in a row. The encouraging part of last week was that Bradford played with Brandon Lloyd for the first time and passed 13 times for five completions for 80 yards. Lloyd remains the only receiver here worthy of a fantasy start and even then he's just moderate yardage with a small chance for a score.

Lloyd will attract Joe Haden at least at times and that will impact his game. There is no other wideout there that really matters and the Browns have only given up three touchdowns to the position all season.

TIGHT ENDS:Lance Kendricks sprained his foot in the Cardinals loss but has not been ruled out for this game. He has never scored and has marginal yardage at best. No fantasy value.

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM QB RB WR TE PK DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points STL 31 20 20 28 28 20
Preventing Fantasy Points CLE 3 20 1 24 26 15


Cleveland Browns
Homefield: Cleveland Stadium
Grass
  Opp Score   Opp Score
1 CIN 17-27 10 STL -
2 @IND 27-19 11 JAC -
3 MIA 17-16 12 @CIN -
4 TEN 13-31 13 BAL -
5 Bye - 14 @PIT -
6 @OAK 17-24 15 @ARI -
7 SEA 6-3 16 @BAL -
8 @SF 10-20 17 PIT -
9 @HOU 12-30      
Browns Report | Statistics | Roster
CLEVELAND vs STL Rush Catch Pass
QB Colt McCoy - - 230,1
RB Chris Ogbonnaya 60,1 20 -
TE Ben Watson - 50,1 -
WR Josh Cribbs - 50 -
WR Greg Little - 60 -
PK Phil Dawson 1 FG 2 XP -

Pregame Notes: The Browns have an excellent chance to win this game. That concludes the optimism for the team that has a very brutal schedule left to play. Starting in week 13, you might as well cut any Browns you may be holding with a slate of games being BAL, @PIT, @ARI, @BAL and PIT. Rest assured - Peyton Hillis will have very little negotiating advantage in the offseason. Maybe none of the players will.

QUARTERBACK: While Colt McCoy resides on many fantasy waiver wires, the reality is that he foes score in nearly every game - sometimes twice - and has around 210 yards in most games. Sure - mediocre. But consistently so and he always has a few fantasy points a week.

That dovetails nicely into the Rams defense that has always allowed at least one score if not three and the only reason opponents do not have higher pass yards is because their running back is tearing up the Rams instead. Rely on McCoy for his standard of mediocrity.

RUNNING BACKS: It was only Monday but HC Pat Shumur already ruled out both Montario Hardesty and Peyton Hillis this week. Hardesty has a calf injury while Hillis pulled a hamstring in practice last week right before returning to the field for the first time since week six. That means everyone's favorite waiver wire grab Chris Ogbonnaya should bet the whole load again and this time - he might do something with it. Ogbonnaya has topped out at around 60 total yards but now he faces the road version of the Rams. That is a good thing.

The Rams have allowed six rushing touchdowns to the position and a few monster games along the way. That won't make Ogbonnaya anything more than the journeyman practice squad sort of player that he is, but it may just end up letting him have his first touchdown. Both teams are going to want to establish the run so Ogbonnaya should end up with more than the 13 carries he has so far topped out at this season.

WIDE RECEIVERS: Mohamed Massaquoi will likely miss this week with a concussion and that may keep him out for a while since he already had two previous concussions in the last four months. Greg Little has been quiet in recent weeks while Josh Cribbs has scored in the last two games while remaining around 50 yards in each. Cribbs leads the team with three touchdowns on the season but is only reliable for a bit of yardage each week.

The Rams are really weak against the position and gave up 13 touchdowns already. But this is also a very weak set of receivers. I am crediting the one passing score to a tight end but it could end up with Cribbs for the hat trick. It could be Little's first NFL score but the reliability factor is very small.

TIGHT ENDS: Ben Watson is one of the primary receivers and ever more so in home games where he typically ends with 50 or 60 yards with a chance for a score. The Rams have been great against the position because no one has needed to cascade down to them to win their game. The Browns will. Watson is a decent chance for moderate yards and a score.

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM QB RB WR TE PK DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points CLE 25 32 28 6 26 31
Preventing Fantasy Points STL 22 26 28 2 15 31

WEEK 10
2011
OAK at SD (thu) DEN at KC NE at NYJ STL at CLE
ARI at PHI DET at CHI NO at ATL TEN at CAR
BAL at SEA HOU at TB NYG at SF WAS at MIA
  BUF at DAL JAC at IND PIT at CIN MIN at GB (mon)

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