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FANTASY FOOTBALL IN-SEASON FEATURES

Predictions & Projections
David Dorey  

Sortable Player Projections | Game Predictions Summary | Projections by Team

WEEK 10
2011
OAK at SD (thu) DEN at KC * NE at NYJ * STL at CLE
* ARI at PHI * DET at CHI * NO at ATL * TEN at CAR
BAL at SEA HOU at TB * NYG at SF WAS at MIA
* UPDATED * BUF at DAL JAC at IND * PIT at CIN MIN at GB (mon)

Prediction: WAS 17, MIA 23

Players to Watch: Roy Helu, Leonard Hankerson

The Skins hit the road with a four game losing streak and a 1-3 record away from home. The Dolphins come off their first win of the year when they surprisingly pasted the Chiefs in Kansas City. This is a game between misfits of sorts but the Fins are at home and have been playing well for three quarters in most games. Last week they made it four quarters.

Washington Redskins
Homefield: FedEx Field
Grass
  Opp Score   Opp Score
1 NYG 28-14 10 @MIA -
2 ARI 22-21 11 DAL -
3 @DAL 16-18 12 @SEA -
4 @STL 17-10 13 NYJ -
5 Bye - 14 NE -
6 PHI 13-20 15 @NYG -
7 @CAR 20-33 16 MIN -
8 @BUF 0-23 17 @PHI -
9 SF 11-19      
Redskins Report | Statistics | Roster
WASHINGTON at MIA Rush Catch Pass
QB John Beck - - 240,2
RB Roy Helu 50 40 -
TE Fred Davis - 40,1 -
WR Leonard Hankerson - 40 -
WR Anthony Armstrong - 30 -
WR Jabbar Gaffney - 60,1 -
PK Graham Gano 1 FG 2 XP -
Pregame Notes: The great news last week was that the Skins may have finally found a good running back to settle on. The bad news - no one else matter or really contributed. The fact that Roy Helu was so busy is all about the offense not functioning and settling for dump off passes. With nearly no passing game anymore the Skins are struggling to compete.

QUARTERBACK: Three starts and still no wins for John Beck but the fault is hardly his alone. Beck has only passed for two touchdowns in four games played against four interceptions and 15 sacks but he has been without Santana Moss and Chris Cooley. Not upgrading the receivers more this offseason was an oversight but in the lockout there wasn't time to deal with it anyway. Beck is just playing out a bad hand.

The Dolphins have been weak against the pass - no argument. But this is also the weakest passing attack they have yet faced. Too early to expect more than a mediocre showing for Beck but he has a shot at a couple of scores.

RUNNING BACKS: Roy Helu was given his first start and while he only rushed ten times for 41 yards, he was thrown a franchise record 17 passes for 14 catches that gained 105 yards. Helu actually knocked out Art Monk's team record in one of the top five performances as a receiving running back in the history of the NFL. As great as that sounds in a reception points league, consider that it was all about Beck not be able to do anything more than dump off to the running back.

That all said, HC Mike Shanahan says that Torain is now just a relief for Helu if he gets tired and that Helu stays on the field all downs. Tashard Choice is still likely a week or so away from being to play. What you choose to believe from Mr. Shanahan is up to you, but reason says Helu is now the Washington equivalent of DeMarco Murray. Only with less rushing yards and opportunities.

The Fins may have their weaknesses but rushing defense is not one of them. Only two runners have scored on the Fins and most end up with marginal yardage. Expect more use of Helu as a receiver this game since the run is unlikely to do that much.

WIDE RECEIVERS: This has de-evolved into one of the least productive units in the NFL and it was never strong to start with. Last week saw Jabbar Gaffney catch the lone touchdown on his meager four catches for 40 yards. Anthony Armstrong had no catches and has yet to gain more than 24 yards in any game. Leonard Hankerson is getting his chance with Santana Moss out and has topped out at four catches for 34 yards. In fantasy terms, this group has only Gaffney as a fantasy relevant player and only marginally so.

This is the area where the Fins are the weakest but relying on anyone outside of Gaffney is a longshot with huge risk. The Fins have allowed ten scores to the position so at least one more should be in the cards this weekend.

TIGHT ENDS: The scary part about Fred Davis is not that he has no production lately, it is that he gets it all in the fourth quarter during trash time. If that doesn't happen, Davis could really flop. The Dolphins have allowed four touchdowns to the position and all came in games in Miami. Davis has a decent shot at a score here but remains a risk.

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM QB RB WR TE PK DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points WAS 20 27 29 9 24 17
Preventing Fantasy Points MIA 29 4 25 26 18 20


Miami Dolphins
Homefield: Dolphins Stadium
Grass
  Opp Score   Opp Score
1 NE 24-38 10 WAS -
2 HOU 13-23 11 BUF -
3 @CLE 16-17 12 @DAL -
4 @SD 16-26 13 OAK -
5 Bye - 14 PHI -
6 @NYJ 6-24 15 @BUF -
7 DEN 15-18 16 @NE -
8 @NYG 17-20 17 NYJ -
9 @KC 31-3      
Dolphins Report | Statistics | Roster
MIAMI vs WAS Rush Catch Pass
QB Matt Moore 10,1 - 200,1
RB Reggie Bush 80 20 -
RB Daniel Thomas 40 - -
TE Anthony Fasano - 30,1 -
WR Brandon Marshall - 80 -
WR Brian Hartline - 30 -
WR Davone Bess - 20 -
PK Dan Carpenter 3 FG 2 XP -

Pregame Notes: The Fins finally come off a win and really it was just another standard game for them only this time they scored 17 points in the second half and held the Chiefs scoreless. It was a magic game where it all came together but it was also on the road and it wasn't just one player or play that mattered here. That has to be confidence building for the Fins who lost three recent games by three points or less and set a new record in allowing opponents to comeback.

QUARTERBACK: It was clearly the best game for Matt Moore who passed for 244 yards and three scores in Kansas City since he had only posted one score in three games previously. We can find out this week just how much of a magic game that was and at home it should be easier for Moore whose previous best was just 197 yards and one score.

The Skins have allowed a passing score or two in each of the last three away games along with 250 yards or so but this passing game is hardly as good. Expect one score and moderate yardage to be safe. Anything more would be impressive.

RUNNING BACKS: Though Daniel Thomas returned for the Kansas City game, he only gained 12 yards on seven carries and was clearly still hampered by his hamstring strain. But Reggie Bush took up the slack and ended up with a fantasy bang for the second week in a row. He had already turned in 120 total yards in the Giants loss and then gained 92 yards on 13 runs and added 50 yards on three catches in the Chiefs win along with his first rushing touchdown of the season. It was his first rushing score since late in 2009.

Hard to buy into Bush suddenly turning stud six years into his career but it is a nice in-season showing for a few weeks. The Skins have been nice to runners for over a month now and four players have topped 100 rushing yards on them. Thomas seems slow still because of the hammy and awarding Bush a rushing score when he has one in the last two years is really hard to do. Expect decent yardage from Bush in this home game with less impact from Thomas.

WIDE RECEIVERS: This remains a lackluster group but at least Brandon Marshall is getting some fantasy attention. He ended with eight catches for 106 yards and one score in Kansas City and has three games over 100 yards though this was the first with Matt Moore as the starter. The plus here is that Marshall generally gets 10 or more targets and at home has always gained 60+ yards. Davone Bess and Brian Hartline are nonfactors since Henne left.

The Skins are good against the position in allowing only two touchdowns all season though several wideouts have managed decent yardage against them. Marshall is going to get his passes and should end up with a decent yardage but relying on a score is tough to do on this defense.

TIGHT ENDS: Anthony Fasano comes off a two touchdown effort on the Chiefs but those were his only two catches in the game. He's been little used all year but faces a defense that has been weaker on the tight ends than the wideouts. And Moore has only four touchdowns this year with three of those going to Fasano. The yardage is likely marginal but there is a chance for a touchdown this week.

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM QB RB WR TE PK DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points MIA 24 14 26 25 15 32
Preventing Fantasy Points WAS 10 16 8 16 31 24

WEEK 10
2011
OAK at SD (thu) DEN at KC NE at NYJ STL at CLE
ARI at PHI DET at CHI NO at ATL TEN at CAR
BAL at SEA HOU at TB NYG at SF WAS at MIA
  BUF at DAL JAC at IND PIT at CIN MIN at GB (mon)

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