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FANTASY FOOTBALL IN-SEASON FEATURES

Predictions & Projections
David Dorey  

Sortable Player Projections | Game Predictions Summary | Projections by Team

WEEK 11
2011
NYJ at DEN (thu) * CIN at BAL PHI at NYG * TEN at ATL
* ARI at SF * DAL at WAS SD at CHI KC at NE (mon)
* BUF at MIA * JAC at CLE SEA at STL Bye Week
* UPDATED * CAR at DET * OAK at MIN TB at GB HOU, IND, NO, PIT

Prediction: JAC 10, CLE 16

Update: Montario Hardesty has been called a game time decision after having some limited work on Friday for the first time since he tore his calf. Hardesty is a long shot to suit up and even less likely to matter this week regardless.

The Jaguars are only 3-6 on the season and 1-4 away from Jacksonville. The Browns are also 3-6 and 2-3 when at home. The only sure thing here is that there will not be a lot of points in a game that could easily end up as the biggest "under" of the weekend. The only offensive weapon in the entire game is Maurice Jones-Drew.

Jacksonville Jaguars
Homefield: J'ville Municipal Stadium
Grass
  Opp Score   Opp Score
1 TEN 16-14 10 @IND 17-3
2 @NYJ 3-32 11 @CLE -
3 @CAR 10-16 12 HOU -
4 NO 10-23 13 SD -
5 CIN 20-30 14 TB -
6 @PIT 13-17 15 @ATL -
7 BAL 9-7 16 @TEN -
8 @HOU 14-24 17 IND -
9 Bye -      
Jaguars Report | Statistics | Roster
JACKSONVILLE at CLE Rush Catch Pass
QB Blaine Gabbert - - 120
RB Maurice Jones-Drew 100,1 10 -
TE Marcedes Lewis - 20 -
WR Jason Hill - 40 -
WR Mike Thomas - 30 -
PK Josh Scobee 1 FG 1 XP -
Pregame Notes: Hopefully Maurice Jones-Drew gets a Christmas bonus this year because he's pretty much carrying the entire company so far this year. The Jaguars have the worst passing game in the entire NFL and while MJD constantly faces defenses dedicated to stopping him, he still gets the job done. The Jaguars have only reached 20 points in a game once this season but a good defense and MJD have kept them in most games.

QUARTERBACK: This is the worst passing attack in the league that has never produced more than 221 passing yards or one score in a game. Blaine Gabbert has thrown for six touchdowns this season against five interceptions but his role is primarily to hand off the ball and try not to lose it. For the last four games, Gabbert has not thrown for more than 118 yards.

The Browns have one of the best secondaries around - stay away from anything not MJD on this team.

RUNNING BACKS: This is hardly a banner year for Maurice Jones-Drew but for him to have four touchdowns and remain above 80 rushing yards in all but one game is simply astounding in this offense. The weakness of the Browns defense is against the run but mostly in road games where opponents have scored four times against running in only one touchdown in Cleveland. But the yardage remains strong even for visitors and Jones-Drew is still a good play this week. This will be his easiest matchup of the year aside from the Colts games.

WIDE RECEIVERS: The worst passing team has the worst receivers in fantasy terms. Mike Thomas has only caught five passes for 33 yards over the last three games combined and Jason Hill was seemingly breaking out a few weeks ago but has only one catch for five yards over the last two games. Hill leads the receivers with three touchdowns but other than the Cincy game has been a marginal player at best. No reason to explain it - stay very far away from all those wideouts even in a dynasty league.

TIGHT ENDS: Marcedes Lewis has fared no better than the others and has no scores on the season. No fantasy value.

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM QB RB WR TE PK DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points JAC 32 20 31 30 25 27
Preventing Fantasy Points CLE 2 23 1 23 25 14
Advantage +31 to -31 JAC -30 3 -30 -7 0 -13


Cleveland Browns
Homefield: Cleveland Stadium
Grass
  Opp Score   Opp Score
1 CIN 17-27 10 STL 12-13
2 @IND 27-19 11 JAC -
3 MIA 17-16 12 @CIN -
4 TEN 13-31 13 BAL -
5 Bye - 14 @PIT -
6 @OAK 17-24 15 @ARI -
7 SEA 6-3 16 @BAL -
8 @SF 10-20 17 PIT -
9 @HOU 12-30      
Browns Report | Statistics | Roster
CLEVELAND vs JAC Rush Catch Pass
QB Colt McCoy - - 200,1
RB Chris Ogbonnaya 50 20 -
TE Ben Watson - 30,1 -
WR Josh Cribbs - 50 -
WR Greg Little - 60 -
PK Phil Dawson 3 FG 1 XP -

Pregame Notes: The Browns lost to the Rams thanks to missing a 22-yard field goal at the end of the game but that is only the season in a nutshell for this struggling team. The offense has not scored more than 12 points for the last four games and is only now about to hit the brutal portion of the schedule with two games each against the Steelers and Ravens still remaining. Chances are good that a loss here means 2012 before you see another win for the Browns.

QUARTERBACK: While Colt McCoy has not progressed much this year, he has had to deal with injuries and the fact that most consider the Browns offensive scheme to be one of the most predictable, unimaginative dink-n-dunk attacks in the NFL. McCoy has scored at least once in most of his games though woes with the running game have plagued the offense as well.

The Jaguars have a very good secondary that has limited most opponents to one or two passing scores and marginal yardage. All but the Colts recorded a passing touchdown on them though and this should be the case here with marginal yardage and no more than one passing touchdown.

RUNNING BACKS: Peyton Hillis has already been ruled out and Montario Hardesty is no lock to play with a tear in his calf. That should end up with Chris Ogbonnaya shouldering the load again. After two weeks of minimal results for Ogbonnaya, he finally posted 90 yards on 19 carries against the weak Rams defense and he is at home again this week.

But the Jaguars are ranked well against the running backs. They have only allowed five rushing touchdowns to the position but on the road have been much less adept at stopping the run. Still this is a third-stringer taking a desperation start so anything more than moderate yardage and no touchdowns is hard to justify or rely on.

WIDE RECEIVERS: Mohamed Massaquoi is likely still out with his concussion but has been a nonfactor even when healthy. Greg Little comes off a career best 84 yards on six catches in the Rams loss but has never scored. Josh Cribbs scored twice over the last two road games but has been more often planted around 50 yards per game lately. This is one of the worst units in the league.

The Jaguars have one of the best secondaries in the league and this remains one of the east productive units in the league - no reason for any starts here. Little is due for a score but that doesn't mean he gets it anytime soon.

TIGHT ENDS: The tight ends do play a role here but there are three that play and Ben Watson is only marginally better than Alex Smith or Evan Moore. I like the passing score to end up here since the Jaguars are weak against the position and have allowed five scores to tight ends already. I am crediting Watson but it could be any of the three.

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM QB RB WR TE PK DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points CLE 24 32 28 8 23 30
Preventing Fantasy Points JAC 8 8 3 29 6 17
Advantage +31 to -31 CLE -16 -24 -25 21 -17 -13

WEEK 11
2011
NYJ at DEN (thu) CIN at BAL PHI at NYG TEN at ATL
ARI at SF DAL at WAS SD at CHI KC at NE (mon)
BUF at MIA JAC at CLE SEA at STL Bye Week
  CAR at DET OAK at MIN TB at GB HOU, IND, NO, PIT

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