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FANTASY FOOTBALL IN-SEASON FEATURES

Predictions & Projections
David Dorey  

Sortable Player Projections | Game Predictions Summary | Projections by Team

WEEK 11
2011
NYJ at DEN (thu) * CIN at BAL PHI at NYG * TEN at ATL
* ARI at SF * DAL at WAS SD at CHI KC at NE (mon)
* BUF at MIA * JAC at CLE SEA at STL Bye Week
* UPDATED * CAR at DET * OAK at MIN TB at GB HOU, IND, NO, PIT

Prediction: KC 10, NE 38

Players to Watch: Tyler Palko

This Monday night game may not be what the Chiefs want to watch. The Patriots are trying to reclaim their swagger and the Chiefs just lost their quarterback. Knowing the "Roll 'em up" scoring preference of the Patriots, this could get ugly. Consider this a Patriot love letter to the league that says the two recent losses are old history.

Kansas City Chiefs
Homefield: Arrowhead Stadium
Grass
  Opp Score   Opp Score
1 BUF 7-41 10 DEN 10-17
2 @DET 3-48 11 @NE -
3 @SD 17-20 12 PIT -
4 MIN 22-17 13 @CHI -
5 @IND 28-24 14 @NYJ -
6 Bye - 15 GB -
7 @OAK 28-0 16 OAK -
8 SD 23-20 17 @DEN -
9 MIA 3-31      
Chiefs Report | Statistics | Roster
KANSAS CITY at NE Rush Catch Pass
QB Tyler Palko - - 220,1
RB Dexter McCluster 20 30 -
RB Jackie Battle 60 - -
WR Jonathan Baldwin - 30 -
WR Steve Breaston - 60 -
WR Dwayne Bowe - 70,1 -
PK Ryan Succop 1 FG 1 XP -
Pregame Notes: The Chiefs already lost Jamaal Charles to start the season and now appear to have lost Matt Cassel as well. That's a death blow to most offenses and this is no exception. Also problematic - they failed to get a veteran backup and will rely on Tyler Palko. The schedule is just now turning very brutal and the Chiefs get to likely get slaughtered for at least the next five weeks. Chances of a fantasy difference maker on this team now? Not bloody good.

QUARTERBACK: Matt Cassel is out indefinitely with hand surgery and likely is gone for the season. That means Tyler Palko gets his first ever NFL start and he has only thrown 13 passes in the regular NFL season. If and when Palko falters, the Chiefs could turn to the rookie Ricky Stanzi but for now - It's Palko time!

In fairness, Palko knows the offense and has no game film on him. Plus he faces the bad Patriots secondary but there is nothing in this that speaks to the first game out being worthy of any fantasy consideration. Palko is worth grabbing in that "remember Kurt Warner?" sort of vein but keep expectations low for now. If you ever wanted, deep down in your soul, to start Palko on your fantasy team, this is the best matchup he will have this year. No way of knowing what that really means though.

RUNNING BACKS: Thomas Jones is fading into the sunset now and gets only three or four carries per week while Jackie Battle carries the load and rarely does much with the opportunity. He has only scored once and usually settles for around 70 rushing yards in recent games. Dexter McCluster has been a non factor in most games but did show up with a surprising six catches for 48 yards against the Broncos.

The Pats defense is average at best but they are at home and this game just seems a setup for a beatdown on Monday night. Expect marginal yardage from Battle and no score.

WIDE RECEIVERS: This could have been a great week for Dwayne Bowe against the worst secondary in the league. But Bowe has not scored since week five anyway or had more than 88 yards in a game in that time. Steve Breaston has been marginally better at yardage but has only two touchdowns on the season and those were against the Colts so they do not really count. The Chiefs are going to have to throw the ball without question. Both Bowe and Breaston are interesting plays this week with huge risk and yet a bit of upside too because we cannot know what to expect.

TIGHT ENDS: No fantasy value

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM QB RB WR TE PK DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points KC 28 21 17 32 27 22
Preventing Fantasy Points NE 31 18 32 9 10 10
Advantage +31 to -31 KC 3 -3 15 -23 -17 -12


New England Patriots
Homefield: Gillette Stadium
FieldTurf
  Opp Score   Opp Score
1 @MIA 38-24 10 @NYJ 37-16
2 SD 35-21 11 KC -
3 @BUF 31-34 12 @PHI -
4 @OAK 31-19 13 IND -
5 NYJ 30-21 14 @WAS -
6 DAL 20-16 15 @DEN -
7 Bye - 16 MIA -
8 @PIT 17-25 17 BUF -
9 NYG 20-24 - - -
Patriots Report | Statistics | Roster
NEW ENGLAND vs KC Rush Catch Pass
QB Tom Brady - - 330,3
RB BenJarvus Green-Ellis 60,1 10 -
TE Rob Gronkowski - 80,1 -
TE Aaron Hernandez - 40 -
WR Chad Ochocinco - 30 -
WR Deion Branch - 40 -
WR Wes Welker - 110,2 -
PK S. Gostkowski 1 FG 5 XP -

Pregame Notes: The Patriots righted the ship after two straight losses and beat down the Jets to assume the division lead. This is a Monday night game and typically Brady and company loves looking good for the national audience and this is a way to send a message to the rest of the league that they are still a force to reckon with, even though it is only the injury decimated Chiefs showing up.

I like a defensive score here. I like that a lot.

QUARTERBACK: Tom Brady comes off his best game since week three and just threw for 329 yards and three touchdowns against the Jets in New York. He has tossed multiple scores in all but one matchup and now has six games over 300 passing yards. The incoming Chiefs secondary is nothing special and have already allowed an opponent to throw for three or more touchdowns in three different games. It is Monday night and Tom Brady wants a lot of chances for the camera to pan him on the sidelines. It helps with endorsements.

RUNNING BACKS: The rushing effort has been pretty dull for a month now but faces a weak Chiefs defense and should see a spark. BenJarvus Green-Ellis has not scored since week five but there is a decent chance for at least one touchdown this week and moderate to good yardage. Problem is that this game could end up as a blowout and then end up letting Stevan Ridley and Danny Woodhead get more playing time at the expense of Green-Ellis.

The backs are always a risk here but at last Green-Ellis has nice upside against a defense that has allowed eight rushing touchdowns.

WIDE RECEIVERS: Hard as it was to believe, Chad Ochocinco actually mattered in the Jets game when he caught TWO passes for 65 yards. He had almost no playing time in the second half though and had no catches in the three previous games. Deion Branch has been light on yardage almost all year but at least scored four times so far. Problem is that they were almost always in road games and at home, Branch has a habit of disappearing because he is almost never an initial read for Brady.

Wes Welker should get back on track this week after a night on Revis Island only granted him 46 yards on six catches in New York and he has turned in three of the last four outings with less than 50 yards. The Chiefs are soft in the middle and this should be a Monday night return to the limelight for Welker who is always better at home. Branch and Ochocinco are marginal starts as always.

TIGHT ENDS: Aaron Hernandez is still good and worthy of a weekly start but Rob Gronkowski has turned into a machine in recent weeks. He has topped 90 yards in each of the last three games while scoring a total of three touchdowns. He is getting 10+ targets a week - double that of Hernandez. Gronk is a must start and the newest elite tight end in the league.

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM QB RB WR TE PK DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points NE 3 23 6 1 9 15
Preventing Fantasy Points KC 17 27 20 21 17 11
Advantage +31 to -31 NE 14 4 14 20 8 -4

WEEK 11
2011
NYJ at DEN (thu) CIN at BAL PHI at NYG TEN at ATL
ARI at SF DAL at WAS SD at CHI KC at NE (mon)
BUF at MIA JAC at CLE SEA at STL Bye Week
  CAR at DET OAK at MIN TB at GB HOU, IND, NO, PIT

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