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FANTASY FOOTBALL IN-SEASON FEATURES

Predictions & Projections
David Dorey  

Sortable Player Projections | Game Predictions Summary | Projections by Team

WEEK 11
2011
NYJ at DEN (thu) * CIN at BAL PHI at NYG * TEN at ATL
* ARI at SF * DAL at WAS SD at CHI KC at NE (mon)
* BUF at MIA * JAC at CLE SEA at STL Bye Week
* UPDATED * CAR at DET * OAK at MIN TB at GB HOU, IND, NO, PIT

Prediction: SD 17, CHI 34

The Chargers are 4-5 and on a four game losing steak. They bring their 1-3 road mark to Chicago where the Bears are 6-3 and on a four game winning streak. This is no time to change the trends.

San Diego Chargers
Homefield: Qualcomm Stadium
Grass
  Opp Score   Opp Score
1 MIN 24-17 10 OAK 17-24
2 @NE 21-35 11 @CHI -
3 KC 20-17 12 DEN -
4 MIA 26-16 13 @JAC -
5 @DEN 29-24 14 BUF -
6 Bye - 15 BAL -
7 @NYJ 21-27 16 @DET -
8 @KC 20-23 17 @OAK -
9 GB 38-45      
Chargers Report | Statistics | Roster
SAN DIEGO at CHI Rush Catch Pass
QB Philip Rivers - - 320,2
RB Ryan Mathews 50 40 -
RB Mike Tolbert 20 30 -
TE Antonio Gates - 90,1 -
WR Vincent Brown - 80,1 -
WR Vincent Jackson - 50 -
WR Patrick Crayton - 30 -
PK Nick Novak 1 FG 2 XP -
Pregame Notes: The loss to the visiting Raiders was a big setback and now the Chargers are only 2-2 inside the division. The only wins outside the division have been against the visiting Vikings and Dolphins and neither game as a blowout. The problem with the passing game has been mostly related to actually scoring and now that LT Marcus McNeill is out with a neck injury, the less likely the rushing or passing effort is going to improve.

QUARTERBACK: The last two games have been good for Philip Rivers if only in a fantasy sense because he had gone five straight games of only one touchdown or none and then finally produced four scores against the visiting Packers and two more when the Raiders came last week. But those were both home games. Rivers needs to prove himself back out on the road.

The Bears rank lowly against quarterback but look who they have faced - Ryan, Newton, Rodgers, Brees and Stafford. This is the weaker spot of the defense though and Rivers has been great with yardage. He is a lock for one touchdown and has a shot at two if only in late game trash time.

RUNNING BACKS: Ryan Mathews has been nursing a sore groin but is healthy now and should see a bigger workload. He only tan six times for 34 yards in the Raider loss and gave way to Mike Tolbert. Matthews has been very productive in total yardage when healthy and should post at least moderate stats this week against a defense that is much tougher at home. The Bears have only allowed one rushing touchdown in Chicago and that was Adrian Peterson.

Expect moderate yardage and a swing back to Mathews in workload this week. A score is unlikely this week.

WIDE RECEIVERS: Malcom Floyd has been out with a hip pointer but Vincent Brown has stepped in and played very well for the last two weeks. Brown gained 79 yards in the Packers matchup and then scored once and gained 97 yards on the Raiders. Brown is starting to emerge and should replace Floyd for good in the near future if only because Floyd is too often injured. Vincent Jackson had his monster game of 141 yards and three scores against the Packers but then followed that up with only one catch for 22 yards because as Rivers says "he was double covered". That is a weekly occurrence anyway and now Jackson has one big game sandwiched inside four other weeks of 50 yards or fewer.

The Charger should find some success against this secondary that has allowed a few big games by wideouts like Greg Jennings (9-119) and Steve Smith (8-181). Jackson is too unreliable but Brown is coming on and makes for an interesting start with a shot at one score.

TIGHT ENDS: Antonio Gates produces 50+ yards per game since returning a month ago and he has two touchdowns in that time as well. This week he faces the #32 ranked defense against tight ends that has allowed seven scores to the position and sizable yardage to the better receiving tight ends. This should be one of Gates best games of the year.

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM QB RB WR TE PK DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points SD 9 4 16 14 10 24
Preventing Fantasy Points CHI 26 11 16 32 14 15
Advantage +31 to -31 SD 17 7 0 18 4 -9


Chicago Bears
Homefield: Soldier Field
Grass
  Opp Score   Opp Score
1 ATL 30-12 10 DET 37-13
2 @NO 13-30 11 SD -
3 GB 17-27 12 @OAK -
4 CAR 34-29 13 KC -
5 @DET 13-24 14 @DEN -
6 MIN 39-10 15 SEA -
7 @TB 24-18 16 @GB -
8 Bye - 17 @MIN -
9 @PHI 30-24      
Bears Report | Statistics | Roster
CHICAGO vs SD Rush Catch Pass
QB Jay Cutler - - 240,2
RB Matt Forte 110,1 30 -
WR Roy Williams - 40 -
WR Devin Hester - 20 -
WR Earl Bennett - 80,1 -
WR Johnny Knox - 40 -
PK Robbie Gould 2 FG 4 XP -

Pregame Notes: The Bears are long shots to compete for the division crown but a quest for a wildcard is a definite possibility for a team just now getting hot. The running effort has been top notch this year and the defense has stepped up. Now the passing is making few mistakes and the final schedule is should see the Bears favored in most games. A tough schedule made the Bears stumble earlier in the season but they are playing very well and have even won their last two road games.

QUARTERBACK: Jay Cutler is on a quest to be average apparently since he only has 11 touchdowns and ends up around the low 200's in most games. but he has only thrown only three interceptions over the last six games and is no longer getting as beaten up every week. Cutler was sacked 14 times over the first three weeks. He has only been sacked four times in the three most recent games.

The Chargers have allowed multiple scores and high yardage to the better quarterbacks but Cutler has been pretty consistent with the moderate production. Expect one touchdown pass and a good chance for two scores since the Charger do not travel well.

RUNNING BACKS: Matt Forte has been a near machine though oddly enough his only two efforts below 100 rush yards in the last six weeks were in home games. Those were divisional though and always take a unique flavor. Forte has been playing at an elite level for the last six weeks and topped 110 rush yards in four of those games. He's playing for big payday and earning big bucks every week.

The Chargers have been good against the run in San Diego and yet soft whenever they leave. The last three road games featured Willis Mcgahee (16-125), Shonn Greene (20-112) and even Jackie Battle (19-70, TD). Forte should have no less than a good game here that could end up very big.

WIDE RECEIVERS: The Bears wideouts have been marginally productive as a group and each individual receiver has had one good game and then cruised along in mediocrity. There is amazingly no fantasy value here other than Earl Bennett who returned two weeks ago and has turned in games of 95 yards and a score in Philly and 81 yards versus the Lions. Most of the wideouts end up around 30 or 40 yards in every game and should not be considered. Bennett is showing something lately and is the only one worthy of a risk. The two passing scores should both end up in this unit since the Chargers have been kinder to wider receivers. But only Bennett is a low risk play.

TIGHT ENDS: No fantasy value.

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM QB RB WR TE PK DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points CHI 25 6 21 26 6 1
Preventing Fantasy Points SD 14 14 15 19 19 32
Advantage +31 to -31 CHI -11 8 -6 -7 13 31

WEEK 11
2011
NYJ at DEN (thu) CIN at BAL PHI at NYG TEN at ATL
ARI at SF DAL at WAS SD at CHI KC at NE (mon)
BUF at MIA JAC at CLE SEA at STL Bye Week
  CAR at DET OAK at MIN TB at GB HOU, IND, NO, PIT

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