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FANTASY FOOTBALL IN-SEASON FEATURES

Predictions & Projections
David Dorey  

Sortable Player Projections | Game Predictions Summary | Projections by Team

WEEK 11
2011
NYJ at DEN (thu) * CIN at BAL PHI at NYG * TEN at ATL
* ARI at SF * DAL at WAS SD at CHI KC at NE (mon)
* BUF at MIA * JAC at CLE SEA at STL Bye Week
* UPDATED * CAR at DET * OAK at MIN TB at GB HOU, IND, NO, PIT

Prediction: TB 17, GB 34

Players to Watch: None

The Buccaneers pack up their 4-5 record and hit the road where they are only 1-2. The Packers are a perfect 9-0 and at home. This is either a major smack down or a trap game of immense proportions.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Homefield: Raymond James Stadium
Grass
  Opp Score   Opp Score
1 DET 20-27 10 HOU 9-37
2 @MIN 24-20 11 @GB -
3 ATL 16-13 12 @TEN -
4 IND 24-17 13 CAR -
5 @SF 3-48 14 @JAC -
6 NO 26-20 15 DAL -
7 CHI 18-24 16 @CAR -
8 Bye - 17 @ATL -
9 @NO 16-27      
Buccaneers Report | Statistics | Roster
TAMPA BAY at GB Rush Catch Pass
QB Josh Freeman - - 280,2
RB LeGarrette Blount 60 - -
TE Kellen Winslow Jr. - 50,1 -
WR Preston Parker - 30 -
WR Mike Williams - 70 -
WR Dezmon Briscoe - 50 -
WR Arrelious Benn - 50,1 -
PK Conner Barth 1 FG 2 XP -
Pregame Notes: The Buccaneers are on a three game losing streak after their upset win over the visiting Saints in week six. But the offense has really struggled when facing even an average defense and the Saints win was the only time the Bucs posted more than 18 points in the last five games. The lingering problem with the Buccaneers this season has been that they started out a step down from where they were in 2010 and then they have just never improved. Same coaches and offense - no progress.

QUARTERBACK: Josh Freeman is usually a game manager who just throws for the 200 yards and scores once per game. But he has been as good as 303 yards this year (vs. NO) and scored twice in that matchup and the Bears loss. Both were at home. The Packers have been very weak in the secondary and more so because they dominate every opponent and force them into a shootout that so far no one else can win.

Freeman is a lock for a score and moderate yardage but could end up with two touchdowns and good yardage if only late in the already decided game.

RUNNING BACKS: LeGarrette Blount has been a major disappointment after starting at mid-season last year and scoring five times and rushing for around 100 yards in over half of his games. This year? He has one game over 81 yards (thank you Colts) and three touchdowns (thank you Colts and Vikings). On the road he has never gained more than 73 rushing yards.

The Packers have not allowed any back to score in Green Bay and there is no reason to expect more than the moderate rushing yards from Blount this week. He still is excluded as a receiver and Kregg Lumpkin has been steady with 30 yards each week as a receiver.

WIDE RECEIVERS: The wide outs have been marginal at best this year and only combined for seven receiving touchdowns. No receiver has broken 100 yards and none of them have been reliable for more than 50 yards in a game. This week may be as good as it gets for the wideouts and yet even that may not be enough to warrant any fantasy consideration this week. None of them have distinguished themselves from the others. The one passing score could end up with any of the four and I will give it to Arrelious Benn more as a placeholder. Secondary wideouts have been more likely to score on the Packers this year.

TIGHT ENDS: Kellen Winslow Jr. is a decent play this week going against one of the softest secondaries that has allowed five scores and plenty of yardage to opposing tight ends. Winslow has scored in two of the last three games though his yardage remains less than 50 yards almost every week.

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM QB RB WR TE PK DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points TB 16 27 20 20 19 26
Preventing Fantasy Points GB 32 11 31 30 12 5
Advantage +31 to -31 TB 16 -16 11 10 -7 -21


Green Bay Packers
Homefield: Lambeau Field
Grass
  Opp Score   Opp Score
1 NO 42-34 10 MIN 45-7
2 @CAR 30-23 11 TB -
3 @CHI 27-17 12 @DET -
4 DEN 49-23 13 @NYG -
5 @ATL 25-14 14 OAK -
6 STL 24-3 15 @KC -
7 @MIN 33-27 16 CHI -
8 Bye - 17 DET -
9 @SD 45-38      
Packers Report | Statistics | Roster
GREEN BAY vs TB Rush Catch Pass
QB Aaron Rodgers - - 310,3
RB Ryan Grant 40 10 -
RB James Starks 90,1 10 -
TE Jermichael Finley - 30 -
WR Greg Jennings - 90,1 -
WR Jordy Nelson - 80,1 -
WR Donald Driver - 20 -
WR James Jones - 40,1 -
PK Mason Crosby 2 FG 4 XP -

Pregame Notes: The question this week is not if the Packers are going to beat the Buccaneers - it would be the upset of the year if they did not - but rather how badly will they beat them. In the fantasy realm, we loved the 45-7 spanking of the Vikings. Not so much the 24-3 win over the visiting Rams that could have been double that. Plus the Packers have to play @DET and @NYG in the two weeks following this matchup.

QUARTERBACK: No need to ramble on about Aaron Rodgers who has thrown for 28 touchdowns in nine games and been over 300 yards in all but two games. That one low scoring affair against the Rams? Rodgers still posted 316 yards and three touchdowns in that game. The only time he failed to post 300 yards at home was last Monday when he threw for 250 yards and four touchdowns and was removed from the blowout in the fourth quarter.

Rodgers owners are clearly the smug guy in every league.

RUNNING BACKS: The only thing that could get into the way of a huge game by Rodgers is that James Starks is going against the worst rush defense in the league. The Bucs have allowed 13 touchdowns to running backs and plentiful yardage for the taking. Even Ryan Grant has a chance to be fantasy relevant for one week. The Packers have only scored three times via a running back rushing attempt and none since week two. Starks is a good play this week for at least yardage and his shot at a touchdown may never be better.

WIDE RECEIVERS: At home all the normal suspects have to be started. Jordy Nelson has scored in every home game this year including twice back on Monday. He has been a lock on a good showing at home (less on the road). Greg Jennings is now tied with Nelson with seven touchdowns and is always a lock for good yardage if not a score as well. James Jones has scored in four of the last six games and is a decent start as well. The Packers at home have been a thing of beauty in every game this year. The Buccaneers

TIGHT ENDS: Jermichael Finley has been oddly quiet in home games and all five of his scores came in road matchups. He has been the one player who has never had a good home game this year.

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM QB RB WR TE PK DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points GB 1 24 1 11 4 2
Preventing Fantasy Points TB 19 32 21 25 23 8
Advantage +31 to -31 GB 18 8 20 14 19 6

WEEK 11
2011
NYJ at DEN (thu) CIN at BAL PHI at NYG TEN at ATL
ARI at SF DAL at WAS SD at CHI KC at NE (mon)
BUF at MIA JAC at CLE SEA at STL Bye Week
  CAR at DET OAK at MIN TB at GB HOU, IND, NO, PIT

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