In order to help our members better use the starting information that The Huddle provides, the intent of this page is to discuss perceived differences between The Start Bench List and Predictions and Projections. The players below were identified by multiple members. The two reports are written by two different people so differences are always possible, but at least this page should help you make up your mind about these players on your roster.
JOSH FREEMAN (@ GBP) – PROJECTION: 280 YDS + 2 TD, SBL RATING: B
TUVEY: I get that Freeman will need to play catch-up most of the game. I get that the stats say Green Bay’s pass defense gives up a ton of yards and fantasy points. I get that garbage time points count the same as any other points. But nothing Freeman has done of late—particularly on the road—suggests he’ll capitalize on this matchup. I was a Freeman fan (and dynasty league owner) coming into the season so maybe I’m jaded, but I just don’t get a vibe of success from Freeman this week.
DOREY: Freeman is a game manager as I wrote about and he faces a secondary that has always allowed big yardage. In Green Bay, the only visitor with less than 270 passing yards was the rookie Christian Ponder in his third ever NFL game. So I like higher than normal yardage for Freeman who is going to have to throw almost exclusively starting maybe in the second quarter. As I wrote: "Freeman is a lock for a score and moderate yardage but could end up with two touchdowns and good yardage if only late in the already decided game."
CONSENSUS: Freeman is reliable for an average game like 210 yards and one score. But nearly everyone who plays the Packers end up with much more passing yards if not scores because they have to throw against the NFL's only unbeaten team. Expecting more than his normal mediocre showing is an upside play - worth it if you accept the risk.
VINCENT JACKSON (@ CHI) – PROJECTION: 50 YDS, SBL RATING: S2
TUVEY: It’s easy to beat up V-Jax after last week’s no-show/non-effort. I have to believe he received a phone call from his agent during the week that reminded him he’s still playing for a payday, so there will be a bit more focus to his game this week. Even if the Bears throw Peanut Tillman at him, Megatron still produced 7-81 against him so I like Jackson’s chances of doing something similar as Philip Rivers’ go-to wideout.
DOREY: Have to admit, hard not to be gun shy with Jackson when four of his last five games were under 50 yards and had no scores. The only road game where he had a decent showing was the monster game in week two in New England against the worst secondary in the NFL. The Bears have not allowed any wideout to score in Chicago so far this year. Could Jackson have a decent to good game here? Sure. Just like he could have against the Raiders, Chiefs and Broncos recently but he didn't.
CONSENSUS: The 50 yards projected is the reliable number in this case and pays homage to just what he has been doing in the last month other than his Packers explosion. Jackson has more upside than 50 yards by all means - he just has rarely fulfilled it. And yet - he still likely has more upside than most any other receivers you have on your roster.
RODDY WHITE (vs. BUF) – PROJECTION: 40 YDS, SBL RATING: S2
TUVEY: I get that DMD has Harry Douglas going off in Julio Jones’ spot while White receives the bulk of the defensive attention; otherwise White would be the S1 everyone projected him to be coming into the season. The 40 seems a little soft given that Atlanta will likely be without Jones and Tennessee has allowed 10 wideouts to go for 50 or better already this season. Bump the projection up to 60, slide Roddy to the low end of the S2s, and let’s go watch the Thanksgiving edition of “The League” with Sarah Silverman again.
DOREY: Cortland Finnegan can shut down a wideout and he's done just that many times this year. With no Jones, White is all but guaranteed to end up playing pattycake with Finnegan every play. If White gets 60 or more yards, then that means FInnegan wasn't on him as much as expected.
CONSENSUS: White will always have upside but this week matches up with the Titans CB Cortland Finnegan and that could snuff out almost all production. White remains a big risk this week and one that probably supercedes his upside.
|Start Bench List Ratings:
|S1: Start 'em Tier One (Stud / Great matchup)
||U: Upside player (Possible sleeper)
|S2: Start 'em Tier Two (Solid matchup)
||X: Unclear situation / Could go either way
|S3: Start 'em Tier Three (Borderline / Barely)
||B: Bench 'em (Bad Matchup / Too much risk)
||Predictions and Projections:
The projections are what is mostly likely to occur given everything that has recently happened added to the current team dynamics. They consider total rushing and passing yardage and scores and then distribute them between the most active starting players based on how the track record of the offense and the opposing defense along with variables like injuries, depth chart changes, venue, weather and so on.