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Predictions & Projections
David Dorey  

Sortable Player Projections | Game Predictions Summary | Projections by Team

WEEK 12
2011
GB at DET (thu) * BUF at NYJ DEN at SD PIT at KC
MIA at DAL (thu) * CAR at IND HOU at JAC * TB at TEN
SF at BAL (thu) * CHI at OAK * MIN at ATL * WAS at SEA
* UPDATED ARI at STL * CLE at CIN * NE at PHI * NYG at NO (mon)

Prediction: BUF 0, NYJ 26

Players to watch: Johnny White, Derek Hagen

Update: Naaman Roosevelt has been ruled out this week because of his shoulder and is removed from the projections.

This is a rematch of just three weeks ago when the Bills lost 11-27 to the visiting Jets and started the three game losing streak. The Jets left that game and then lost their next two. Both teams are 5-5 and watching the season slip away. But the Bills seem to be in a hurry to get it over. I like the shut out here against a reeling and injured Bills team. The Jets would love a "feel good" game.

Buffalo Bills
Homefield: Ralph Wilson Stadium
AstroTurf
  Opp Score   Opp Score
1 @KC 41-7 10 @DAL 7-44
2 OAK 38-35 11 @MIA 8-35
3 NE 34-31 12 @NYJ  
4 @CIN 20-23 13 TEN -
5 PHI 31-24 14 @SD -
6 @NYG 24-27 15 MIA -
7 Bye - 16 DEN -
8 WAS 23-0 17 @NE -
9 NYJ 11-27      
Bills Report | Statistics | Roster
BUFFALO at NYJ Rush Catch Pass
QB Ryan Fitzpatrick - - 160
RB Johnny White 40 10 -
RB C.J. Spiller 30 10 -
TE Scott Chandler - 30 -
WR David Nelson - 30 -
WR Steve Johnson - 40 -
WR Naaman Roosevelt - 30 -
PK Dave Rayner 0 FG 0 XP -
Pregame Notes: It seems almost inexplicable. Like the Bills signed a deal with the devil this year but did not realize the whole " good again" promise only lasted until November instead of January. This started out as the highest scoring offense in the NFL after the first few weeks and now cannot score more than one touchdown in a game. Injuries have hit all the positions and suddenly these are the Bills we remember and loved to play against. It is a 180 degree turn made on a dime.

QUARTERBACK: Once upon a time, a quarterback named Ryan Fitzpatrick started the year out with nine touchdowns in three games. He has only scored seven in the seven weeks since and only one per game since the scoring drought started in week nine. You know it is bad when the team is determining how much it will cost them to get out of the big contract they awarded him earlier this year before the curse started.

Fitzpatrick only passed for 191 yards and one score at home against the Jets. Now Donald Jones is back on IR and there is no running game support. No chance he should be a fantasy start this week.

RUNNING BACKS: Fred Jackson has truly had a magical year at the age of 31 and even in the final weeks of no scoring, he has still propped up his fantasy value with rushing and receiving yards. But he received a serious calf bruise in the Miami game and is no lock to play. He rushed for 82 yards on 18 runs and added 38 yards on three receptions in the previous meeting with the Jets but he may not play this week and has been missing practice. I will rule him out this week which leaves C.J. Spiller as the primary back who never had more than five carries in a game this year. Johnny White would take a role as well and would probably get the bulk of carries if only because Spiller has been so bad as a runner.

.The Jets are hurting and mad and at home. The Bills are swirling down the drain, are on the road and may be without Fred Jackson their only weapon. No need to expect much here this week. White is the Bills fifth round pick out of North Carolina he only has ten carries this season. Forget what Jackson did at home when healthy. This looks like a bad game brewing.

WIDE RECEIVERS: Donald Jones has been placed on injured reserve and Derek Hagen has been added to the roster for wideout depth. Hagen could end up replacing Naaman Roosevelt eventually but for this massacre game, Roosevelt will take over for Jones again. Back in week nine, Steve Johnson had a respectable 84 yards on three catches when the Jets visited and David Nelson scored once on his four catches for 36 yards. Figure Johnson gets Darrell Revis and is a no show this week and no wideout has an attractive fantasy start in him.

TIGHT ENDS:Scott Chandler rarely has many yards and he only turned in three catches for 24 yards in the previous matchup with the Jets. With only one scoring game in the last seven weeks, he's a no go for a fantasy start again this week.

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM QB RB WR TE PK DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points BUF 20 9 12 22 18 11
Preventing Fantasy Points NYJ 3 17 2 22 16 32


New York Jets
Homefield: Meadowlands Stadium
FieldTurf
  Opp Score   Opp Score
1 DAL 27-24 10 NE 16-37
2 JAC 32-3 11 @DEN 13-17
3 @OAK 24-34 12 BUF -
4 @BAL 17-34 13 @WAS -
5 @NE 21-30 14 KC -
6 MIA 24-6 15 @PHI -
7 SD 27-21 16 NYG -
8 Bye - 17 @MIA -
9 @BUF 27-11      
Jets Report | Statistics | Roster
NY JETS vs BUF Rush Catch Pass
QB Mark Sanchez - - 220,1
RB Shonn Greene 90,1 - -
RB Joe McKnight 20,1 30 -
TE Dustin Keller - 40 -
WR Plaxico Burress - 60,1 -
WR Santonio Holmes - 70 -
PK Nick Folk 1 FG 3 XP -

Pregame Notes: At 5-5 the Jets chances for the postseason is sinking fast but this is a year where no AFC team has fewer than three losses so a wildcard bid is not impossible. The remaining schedule will likely see the Jets favored in all games but these last two losses will take a toll on their confidence and focus. The offense needs to show up again and at least it was only three weeks ago in Buffalo when the Jets scored 27 points. If the Jets cannot roll up a nice win here after ten days to prep, there are really big problems.

QUARTERBACK: Since the offense went into the "Ground-N-Pound" mode, Mark Sanchez has been little more than a game manager even when the team needed more. He was blanked in Denver last week for the second time this year and has been limited to one score in three of the four games previous. This includes the 230 yards and one score he had in Buffalo in week nine.

The Bills are struggling more every week and allowed six passing touchdowns over the last two games. Even Sanchez should be a lock to score once.

RUNNING BACKS: Shonn Greene injured his ribs in the Denver loss and sat out almost the entire game. There was some thoughts about letting him play in the second half but Joe McKnight (16-59) was running well enough and he added six catches for 66 yards. Chances are that McKnight will be getting a bigger share of the workload but Greene will remain the primary back. Greene rushed for 79 yards on 19 carries in the previous meeting with the Bills.

Tomlinson suffered a setback on Tuesday so McKnight should take his place again this week. Greene is back to full practices and won't be bothered by his ribs.

The Bills have already allowed 12 touchdowns to opposing running backs and this is shaping up to be a solid win for the Jets. Greene should flirt with 100 yards and score at least once in this game. There is even a good chance that McKnight gets his first touchdown of the year replacing Tomlinson who scored once in Buffalo three weeks ago.

WIDE RECEIVERS: Jeremy Kerley did not play last week because of his knee and I will rule him out again pending any information to the contrary. As the slot receiver for the Jets, his role is minimal anyway. Plaxico Burress has remained a marginal fantasy play because his yardage is always limited but at least his best game of the year was when he caught five passes for 79 yards against the Bills in week nine. Santonio Holmes scored once in that game but only had three receptions for 29 yards for one of his lowest efforts of the year. During this return to a heavier run attack, Holmes has been limited to fewer than 40 yards in most games.

TIGHT ENDS: Dustin Keller has not scored since week two but he had his best game of the last two months when he faced the Bulls in Buffalo and caught four passes for 64 yards. He tends to remain around 40 to 50 yards in most games lately.

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM QB RB WR TE PK DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points NYJ 14 17 21 19 20 7
Preventing Fantasy Points BUF 27 29 21 20 12 6

WEEK 12
2011
GB at DET (thu) BUF at NYJ DEN at SD PIT at KC
MIA at DAL (thu) CAR at IND HOU at JAC TB at TEN
SF at BAL (thu) CHI at OAK MIN at ATL WAS at SEA
  ARI at STL CLE at CIN NE at PHI NYG at NO (mon)

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