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Predictions & Projections
David Dorey  

Sortable Player Projections | Game Predictions Summary | Projections by Team

WEEK 12
2011
GB at DET (thu) * BUF at NYJ DEN at SD PIT at KC
MIA at DAL (thu) * CAR at IND HOU at JAC * TB at TEN
SF at BAL (thu) * CHI at OAK * MIN at ATL * WAS at SEA
* UPDATED ARI at STL * CLE at CIN * NE at PHI * NYG at NO (mon)

Prediction: CAR 27, IND 10

Update: Legedu Naanee is not only listed as questionable to play, he did not practice this week and is expected to be scratched from the game. Brandon LaFell will step up to replace him. Joseph Addai is questionable to play but had full participation in all practices this week and is expected to dress. Returning from a significant hamstring injury, he is likely to play shoulder a partial load and may not even be the primary runner. All three running backs are likely to participate and just diminish what one of them alone could do.

On the plus side, someone is going to win this game. The 2-8 Panthers are 0-4 on the road but head to Indy where the Colts are O-for-everywhere. The Colts could rise up and win a game potentially but have not scored more than ten points for the last four weeks. It just gets worse for the Colts and the Panthers are plenty motivated to beat anyone that they can.

Carolina Panthers
Homefield: Bank of America Stadium
Grass
  Opp Score   Opp Score
1 @ARI 21-28 10 TEN 3-30
2 GB 23-30 11 @DET 35-49
3 JAC 16-10 12 @IND -
4 @CHI 29-34 13 @TB -
5 NO 27-30 14 ATL -
6 @ATL 17-31 15 @HOU -
7 WAS 33-20 16 TB -
8 MIN 21-24 17 @NO -
9 Bye -      
Panthers Report | Statistics | Roster
CAROLINA at IND Rush Catch Pass
QB Cam Newton 40,1 - 210,2
RB DeAngelo Williams 50 - -
RB Jonathan Stewart 40 20 -
TE Greg Olsen - 30 -
WR Brandon LaFell - 50 -
WR Steve Smith - 80,2 -
WR Legedu Naanee - 30 -
PK Olindo Mare 2 FG 3XP -
Pregame Notes: The Panthers put up a game fight in Detroit last week and still have four more road games and only two home stands left to play. But the offense has scored over 21 points in three of the last four games while the defense still struggles just to keep the opponent under 30 points. At Indianapolis, that should not be a problem.

QUARTERBACK: Though he still has the Offensive Rookie of the Year wrapped up, Cam Newton has turned in a couple of games with marginal scoring but in those he was faced with better than average defenses which clearly does not pertain to the Colts. Every opponent has scored at least one passing touchdown on them if not as many as five. The yardage generally depends on how they want to do the damage.

This has the markings of a standard good game for Newton with plenty of rushing opportunities and at last one passing score.

RUNNING BACKS: Even combined, DeAngelo Williams and Jonathan Stewart no longer have much bearing in fantasy circles since as a group they only rank 30th in fantasy points. There have only been three touchdowns between the pair and only one effort over 100 yards. This week they face the Colts who have allowed seven touchdowns to running backs and seven different runners have topped 90 yards against them.

There should be a rushing score here but flip a coin to see which one gets it and the yardage is going to be halved anyway. Even in a good matchup, both players are still a risk for a minimal game because the other one could go off and leave them behind. Forget it - Newton is going to steal it again anyway.

WIDE RECEIVERS: There is no confusion in this backfield where all but two touchdowns have ended up with Steve Smith as well as the five 100 yard games, Smith is not that hard to forecast since he usually is just as good as the defense is bad. He gets around 8 or 9 targets every game and usually has either a big stat day or does little because they either cover him all the time or they don't. Brandon LaFell and Legedu Naanee just contribute enough to make the defenses bother to cover them.

The Colts secondary is not only bad, they have allowed four different wideouts to score twice against them.

TIGHT ENDS: Greg Olsen is likely to be quiet this week against a defense that has been good against tight ends (if nothing else) and he has only scored once in the last five games anyway. He's a marginal yardage play this week.

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM QB RB WR TE PK DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points CAR 2 28 14 7 19 26
Preventing Fantasy Points IND 24 30 30 5 28 26


Indianapolis Colts
Homefield: Lucas Oil Stadium
FieldTurf
  Opp Score   Opp Score
1 @HOU 7-34 10 JAC 3-17
2 CLE 19-27 11 Bye -
3 PIT 20-23 12 CAR -
4 @TB 17-24 13 @NE -
5 KC 24-28 14 @BAL -
6 @CIN 17-27 15 TEN -
7 @NO 7-62 16 HOU -
8 @TEN 10-27 17 @JAC -
9 ATL 7-31      
Colts Report | Statistics | Roster
INDIANAPOLIS vs CAR Rush Catch Pass
QB Curtis Painter - - 140
RB Delone Carter 30 - -
RB Donald Brown 40,1 - -
RB Joseph Addai 30 - -
TE Jacob Tamme - 40 -
WR Reggie Wayne - 40 -
WR Austin Collie - 20 -
WR Pierre Garcon - 30 -
PK Adam Vinatieri 1 FG 1 XP -

Pregame Notes: The Colts come off their bye wondering what can possibly work. There is a very realistic chance that they would end up without a victory this year and this week is probably as close as they are going to get. And yet injuries to Joseph Addai and Dallas Clark have diminished the team and Curtis Painter is in jeopardy of being replaced by Dan Orlovsky if only to try something different instead of willingly accepting futility.

QUARTERBACK: It is honestly getting embarrassing and painful to watch. Curtis Painter has played in eight games now and has five touchdowns - all in his first three weeks. Since then he has managed to throw over 100 yards only once and has racked up seven interceptions in the last four weeks without any touchdowns. He has no fantasy value and is likely to be replaced if only because no one else is going to do any worse.

The Panthers have held over half of their opponents to one or no touchdowns passing so no reason to expect Painter to end his four week scoring drought.

RUNNING BACKS: Joseph Addai remained in Indy during the bye to work on his ever injured hamstring that has kept him out since week seven. Delone Carter and Donald Brown have managed minimal fantasy value in his absence and this team has only five rushing touchdowns on the season and not one rusher with more than 89 yards in any game. Until Addai can practice, he has to be considered still out.

The Panthers are horrible at stopping the run and the Colts are horrible at running. It is the rare 32nd vs. 32nd. But it is easier to stop a runner who cannot run than to run against a defense that ... no wait... This will be the best matchup of the year for running backs and one should score but it could end up with any of them. A healthy Addai would be nice to see this week but that remains to be seen. I will assume he is out again and reinsert him if warranted. Otherwise, Brown becomes worthy of a desperation fantasy start.

WIDE RECEIVERS: A unit that was once #1 has fallen apart. Reggie Wayne has never had more than 77 yards in any game since week one and has not scored. Most weeks are sub-40 yard games. Pierre Garcon was Cinderella for two weeks and since has been even worse than Wayne and has not scored. None of these wideouts can be relied on for much more than 30 yards in a game.

Even with the Panthers showing up, no wideout here is worth a start unless you can live with 40 yards or so.

TIGHT ENDS: Dallas Clark is out with a lower leg injury and the Colts are not going to place him on injured reserve. Jacob Tamme stepped in for week 10 and delivered 75 yards on six receptions in the Jaguars matchup but that's so far out of the norm that it cannot be considered. Clark had less than 50 yards in almost all games this year.

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM QB RB WR TE PK DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points IND 31 32 25 23 30 29
Preventing Fantasy Points CAR 16 32 8 25 27 27

WEEK 12
2011
GB at DET (thu) BUF at NYJ DEN at SD PIT at KC
MIA at DAL (thu) CAR at IND HOU at JAC TB at TEN
SF at BAL (thu) CHI at OAK MIN at ATL WAS at SEA
  ARI at STL CLE at CIN NE at PHI NYG at NO (mon)

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