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Predictions & Projections
David Dorey  

Sortable Player Projections | Game Predictions Summary | Projections by Team

GB at DET (thu) * BUF at NYJ DEN at SD PIT at KC
MIA at DAL (thu) * CAR at IND HOU at JAC * TB at TEN
SF at BAL (thu) * CHI at OAK * MIN at ATL * WAS at SEA
* UPDATED ARI at STL * CLE at CIN * NE at PHI * NYG at NO (mon)

Prediction: CLE 3, CIN 24

Players to Watch: Jermaine Gresham

Update: Peyton Hillis finally had limited work on Friday and may be able to play this week. He is optimistic but needs to clear the medical staff and pregame warmups before that can happen. Montario Hardesty was limited in practices all week and is also questionable but is expected to play. That means a bad matchup anyway will see the meager workload spread out over two and maybe three runners. I am not changing the projections but even those bad numbers could be high.

The 4-6 Browns hit the road for their rematch of the season opener when the Bengals won 27-17. The Browns are 1-3 in away games and the 6-4 Bengals are still just one game back of the Steelers and Ravens with a 2-2 home mark. The Bengals are on a two game losing streak.

Cleveland Browns
Homefield: Cleveland Stadium
  Opp Score   Opp Score
1 CIN 17-27 10 STL 12-13
2 @IND 27-19 11 JAC 14-10
3 MIA 17-16 12 @CIN -
4 TEN 13-31 13 BAL -
5 Bye - 14 @PIT -
6 @OAK 17-24 15 @ARI -
7 SEA 6-3 16 @BAL -
8 @SF 10-20 17 PIT -
9 @HOU 12-30      
Browns Report | Statistics | Roster
CLEVELAND at CIN Rush Catch Pass
QB Colt McCoy - - 190
RB Chris Ogbonnaya 40 20 -
RB Montario Hardesty 30 10 -
TE Ben Watson - 30 -
WR Mohamed Massaquoi - 50 -
WR Greg Little - 50 -
PK Phil Dawson 1 FG XP -
Pregame Notes: The fun and games of the season are now officially over. The final games are @CIN, BAL, @PIT, @ARI, @BAL and PIT. How brutal is that? This begs the question if the Browns are just going to rent apartments for their new coaching staffs every season. A long season ends not with a bang or a whimper, but instead a BAM-BAM-BAM-BAM-BAM-BAM.

QUARTERBACK: That opening game for Colt McCoy of 213 yards and two scores ends up to be about the most productive fantasy game of the year for him. He has scored only three times over the last five games and never more than once per matchup in that time. Defenses are calling the Browns offense as the most unimaginative they have played against and the Browns have not scored more than 17 points since week two. McCoy is a game manager but not because the running game takes over.

The Bengals are bent out of shape from their recent losses and the Browns show up at the wrong time. No need to consider McCoy in any week much less in Cincy.

RUNNING BACKS: Peyton Hillis ran for 57 yards on 17 carries against the Bengals in the season opener and has already been ruled out this week again because of his hamstring. Montario Hardesty was able to practice some last week and may be back for this game depending on how practice goes. I will assume a split between he and Chris Ogbonnaya.

The Bengals held them to only 57 yards in the opener and at home they have yet to give up more than 66 yards to any runner (and that was Fred Jackson). Neither Hardesty or Ogbonnaya is an attractive start this week.

WIDE RECEIVERS: The only wideout of note in the first meeting was Mohamed Massaquoi with a season high 77 yards on three catches. He has since never had more than 46 yards in any game and scored twice on the season. Josh Cribbs also was limited to around 50 yards per game and scored in three of the last four matchups but losing his role back to Massaquoi.

The Bengals have only allowed one passing score to a wideout in Cincy this year and only one player ever gained more than 58 yards there. No fantasy value here this week or in any coming week.

TIGHT ENDS: Ben Watson only accounts for about 30 yards in most games but on this team that is pretty notable. He has not scored in the last eight games.

Gaining Fantasy Points CLE 26 31 27 9 24 32
Preventing Fantasy Points CIN 6 14 12 8 4 4

Cincinnati Bengals
Homefield: Paul Brown Stadium
  Opp Score   Opp Score
1 @CLE 27-17 10 PIT 17-24
2 @DEN 22-24 11 @BAL 24-31
3 SF 8-13 12 CLE -
4 BUF 23-20 13 @PIT -
5 @JAC 30-20 14 HOU -
6 IND 27-17 15 @STL -
7 Bye - 16 ARI -
8 @SEA 34-12 17 BAL -
9 @TEN 24-17      
Bengals Report | Statistics | Roster
CINCINNATI vs CLE Rush Catch Pass
QB Andy Dalton - - 200,1
RB Cedric Benson 120,1 - -
TE Jermaine Gresham - 50,1 -
WR A.J. Green - 40 -
WR Jerome Simpson - 60 -
WR Andre Caldwell - 30 -
PK Mike Nugent 1 FG 3 XP -

Pregame Notes: The Bengals were competitive in the last two games but losses to the Steelers and Ravens likely sink any divisional hopes already though they play again later on in weeks 13 and 17. The Bengals have made major strides this year to be sure but are not quite up to the level of the top teams. They are easily already better than the Browns.

I like a defensive score.

QUARTERBACK: Andy Dalton took over midway through the season opener against the Browns and has never looked back. He has scored in all but one game and just last week had a career best 373 yards in Baltimore. Combined with Bruce Gradkowski, the pair passed for 173 yards and two scores in the opener over the Browns who generally play good in the secondary and are so weak against the run that teams just ignore the pass in most cases.

The Browns have only allowed nine passing scores this year though three went to Matt Hasselbeck. In Cincy, no reason why the Bengals need to air it out too much. Look for a moderate game with likely just one score via the pass.

RUNNING BACKS: Cedric Benson opened the season with his best game of the year - 25 runs for 121 yards and one score in Cleveland. He has since only topped 100 yards one other time and scored just four times on the year including oddly enough twice last week in Baltimore. The Browns are very weak against the run in all venues and allow well over 100 yards to every opposing team. The Bengals will be happy enough to let Benson turn in probably his final big game of the season.

WIDE RECEIVERS: The availability of A.J. Green will be decided later on this week since his knee remains sore and swollen and requires more treatments. Green missed last week and Jerome Simpson filled in with a career best 152 yards on eight catches. In the season opener, Green had one catch for a 41-yard touchdown and Simpson turned in 44 yards on four catches. With Joe Haden prowling around, it makes it hard to rely on any wideout this week against the #1 defense against the position. I will assume a limited Green can play but the Browns on the road have only allowed one touchdown to a wideout and never more than than 66 yards.

TIGHT ENDS: The Browns are much weaker against tight ends and Jermaine Gresham already opened up the season with one of his best efforts when he caught six passes for 58 yards and one touchdown. Gresham has scored in three of the last five games, expect a decent showing again against the Browns and a good chance for one touchdown.

Gaining Fantasy Points CIN 17 26 9 14 12 9
Preventing Fantasy Points CLE 1 23 1 19 23 15

GB at DET (thu) BUF at NYJ DEN at SD PIT at KC
MIA at DAL (thu) CAR at IND HOU at JAC TB at TEN
SF at BAL (thu) CHI at OAK MIN at ATL WAS at SEA
  ARI at STL CLE at CIN NE at PHI NYG at NO (mon)

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