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FANTASY FOOTBALL IN-SEASON FEATURES

Predictions & Projections
David Dorey  

Sortable Player Projections | Game Predictions Summary | Projections by Team

WEEK 12
2011
GB at DET (thu) * BUF at NYJ DEN at SD PIT at KC
MIA at DAL (thu) * CAR at IND HOU at JAC * TB at TEN
SF at BAL (thu) * CHI at OAK * MIN at ATL * WAS at SEA
* UPDATED ARI at STL * CLE at CIN * NE at PHI * NYG at NO (mon)

Prediction: MIA16, DAL 27

Players to Watch: None

The Dolphins are only 3-7 but that is with a three game winning streak from a team that took those victories with a combined score of 86-20. Granted, they are only 1-4 on the road but are at least no longer losing every game by a field goal after allowing their opponent to make an improbable comeback. The Cowboys are also on a three game winning streak and are 4-1 at home. Something has to change and it is much more likely the road Dolphins. This should be an entertaining "middle" game on Thanksgiving.

Miami Dolphins
Homefield: Dolphins Stadium
Grass
  Opp Score   Opp Score
1 NE 24-38 10 WAS 20-9
2 HOU 13-23 11 BUF 35-8
3 @CLE 16-17 12 @DAL -
4 @SD 16-26 13 OAK -
5 Bye - 14 PHI -
6 @NYJ 6-24 15 @BUF -
7 DEN 15-18 16 @NE -
8 @NYG 17-20 17 NYJ -
9 @KC 31-3      
Dolphins Report | Statistics | Roster
MIAMI at DAL Rush Catch Pass
QB Matt Moore - - 210
RB Reggie Bush 50,1 20 -
RB Daniel Thomas 30 - -
TE Anthony Fasano - 40 -
WR Brandon Marshall - 60 -
WR Brian Hartline - 30 -
WR Davone Bess - 40 -
PK Dan Carpenter 3 FG 1 XP -
Pregame Notes: These Dolphins are a tough one to figure out. For seven futile weeks, they were never bad per se but never good enough. Their defense quietly has been rather good at keeping game scores low but the offense never had quite enough punch. For the last three weeks, there has been plenty of punching. The stomp on the Chiefs was unexpected and home games against the Skins and Bills were not a shock though the margin of victory was impressive. There is no chance that this all goes anywhere for the postseason but jobs are being saved and HC Tony Sparano is feeling a lot better about paying for all the Christmas presents this year.

QUARTERBACK: Matt Moore has started for the last six games and that has been four games that totaled just one passing touchdown with marginal yardage and then games against the Chiefs and Bills where he threw three touchdowns in each. He still has never exceeded 244 yards in a game but twice now he has popped up as an effective scorer.

The Cowboys on the road have always allowed exactly two touchdowns per opponent. Always. But at home they have only given up four scores over five games and never more than 250 yards. This should be another cool down week for Moore who has only three days to prepare anyway.

RUNNING BACKS: Reggie Bush has been on a four game stretch where he posted decent fantasy stats. He scored in the last three games and gained 120 total yards in the Giants matchup. His last two games - both big wins - saw him score three times but only gained 79 yards on 29 carries total. His role as a receiver has been marginal as well with rarely more than 20 yards via the pass.

Daniel Thomas still takes roughly an equal share of carries but has never ran in a score or had more than about 50 yards since the start of the season.

The Cowboys have been dinged in recent weeks by running backs but the Dolphins split up carries and Bush has really relied on scores for value in recent weeks. He has a good shot at one touchdown here but a really big yardage game would be very unexpected.

WIDE RECEIVERS: Despite the two good games by Matt Moore, the Fins wideouts have only combined for four touchdowns this season and only Brandon Marshall ever turns in a fantasy relevant game. Even then he only had one catch for five yards last week and has scored just once since week two. This is a one of the least productive crews in the league and have lost all fantasy value outside of Marshall who usually chips in 50 or 60 yards in most matchups with the upside for a nice effort in any given week.

Neither Brian Hartline or Davone Bess have produced over around 40 yards in any recent games.

The Cowboys have only allowed two wideouts to score in Dallas and none have topped 100 yards as a visitor. No reason here to expect more than the same marginal stats of most weeks for the Fins.

TIGHT ENDS: H-back Charles Clay caught four passes for 69 yards with a touchdown last week but that was a fluke compared to the previous work this year rarely saw him catch more than one pass if even that. Anthony Fasano has been infrequently used and goes against a defense that has never allowed a touchdown to a visiting tight end.

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM QB RB WR TE PK DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points MIA 24 11 26 24 15 31
Preventing Fantasy Points DAL 11 7 9 29 8 7


Dallas Cowboys
Homefield: Cowboys Stadium
RealGrass
  Opp Score   Opp Score
1 @NYJ 24-27 10 BUF 44-7
2 @SF 27-24 11 @WAS 27-24
3 WAS 18-16 12 MIA -
4 DET 30-34 13 @ARI -
5 Bye - 14 NYG -
6 @NE 16-20 15 @TB -
7 STL 34-7 16 PHI -
8 @PHI 7-34 17 @NYG -
9 SEA 23-13      
Cowboys Report | Statistics | Roster
DALLAS vs MIA Rush Catch Pass
QB Tony Romo - - 270,3
RB Felix Jones 20 10 -
RB DeMarco Murray 80 30 -
TE Jason Witten - 50,1 -
WR Laurent Robinson - 60,1 -
WR Kevin Ogletree - 20 -
WR Dez Bryant - 90,1 -
PK Dan Bailey 2 FG 3 XP -

Pregame Notes: The Cowboys are on their own winning streak and coincidentally played the same teams as the Dolphins did for the last two weeks. The Cowboys seem to be over the hump in their inconsistent play and Romo is healthy and playing at a high level again but that's been the case in many of the past seasons only to once again crumble. The Cowboys always get the perk of a home game in a short week for Thanksgiving. They are past what should be the toughest part of their schedule excepting for the two matchups left with the suddenly sagging Giants.

QUARTERBACK: Tony Romo has been on a hot streak with eight touchdowns over the last three weeks and never fewer than 270 yards. He's scored in all but one game and has only thrown one interception over the last five matchups. He was not even sacked in the two most recent home games.

The Dolphins are nothing special in the secondary and half of their opponents score two more more touchdowns via the pass. What comes into play this week is that the Fins are excellent against the run and that should force Romo to throw more often. Expect a good game here by Romo that could end up big.

RUNNING BACKS: DeMarco Murray comes off his worst game as a starter when the Redskins held him to only 73 yards on 25 carries but he heads back home where three matchups have all produced 130+ rushing yards and two scores. Felix Jones is in the mix again but only had five carries to the 25 for Murray and DeMarco the Magnificent also doubles as a receiver with six catches in each of the last two games.

The Fins are top ranked against running backs though. They have only allowed one rushing score since the season opener and none in the last six games. This should be the first home game for Murray to drop below 100 rushing yards unless he breaks a long gainer. He's also less likely to score but will double as a receiver to maintain fantasy value.

WIDE RECEIVERS: Miles Austin remains out with his bad hamstring and Laurent Robinson continues to be everything that the Austin owners thought they were drafting. Robinson has scored in each of the last four games and doubled up in the most recent home stand versus the Bills. His yardage has been marginal at best since his 103 yards in Philly back in week eight but the scores continue to make him a nice free agent pickup by someone in every league.

Dez Bryant has been good for around 70 yards in almost every game and has scored in each of the last two games. His six scores lead the wideouts at least until Robinson plays one more game. Bryant has been more likely to score at home than on the road.

The Fins are on a very short week and traveling. The secondary has already allowed six scores over five road games for wideouts so expect both Bryant and Robinson to post at least decent stats this week with upside for a big game.

TIGHT ENDS: The Dolphins rank poorly against the tight ends thanks to playing the Patriots but have otherwise been far better against the position. Jason Witten has scored in five of the last seven games and should be a factor in this one as well though with lesser yardage.

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM QB RB WR TE PK DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points DAL 7 15 5 5 2 13
Preventing Fantasy Points MIA 21 3 15 24 19 17

WEEK 12
2011
GB at DET (thu) BUF at NYJ DEN at SD PIT at KC
MIA at DAL (thu) CAR at IND HOU at JAC TB at TEN
SF at BAL (thu) CHI at OAK MIN at ATL WAS at SEA
  ARI at STL CLE at CIN NE at PHI NYG at NO (mon)

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