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Predictions & Projections
David Dorey  

Sortable Player Projections | Game Predictions Summary | Projections by Team

WEEK 12
2011
GB at DET (thu) * BUF at NYJ DEN at SD PIT at KC
MIA at DAL (thu) * CAR at IND HOU at JAC * TB at TEN
SF at BAL (thu) * CHI at OAK * MIN at ATL * WAS at SEA
* UPDATED ARI at STL * CLE at CIN * NE at PHI * NYG at NO (mon)

Prediction: NYG 20, NO 30

Update: Mario Manningham is a no go this week after being held out of practices with a bad knee and he is not expected to play on Monday. Ahmad Bradshaw has also not practiced and remains in doubt to play this week.

The Giants have lost their last two games and losing to the visiting Eagles was a mind bender. Now they hit the road where they are 3-2 to face the 7-3 Saints who are 4-0 at home and coming off their bye. This should be an interesting Monday night game. The Saints have been on bye and come in rested and prepared.

New York Giants
Homefield: Meadowlands Stadium
FieldTurf
  Opp Score   Opp Score
1 @WAS 14-28 10 @SF 20-27
2 STL 28-16 11 PHI 10-17
3 @PHI 29-16 12 @NO -
4 @ARI 31-27 13 GB -
5 SEA 25-36 14 @DAL -
6 BUF 27-24 15 WAS -
7 Bye - 16 @NYJ -
8 MIA 20-17 17 DAL -
9 @NE 24-20 - - -
Giants Report | Statistics | Roster
NY GIANTS at NO Rush Catch Pass
QB Eli Manning - - 270,2
RB Brandon Jacobs 50 20 -
TE Jake Ballard - 40 -
WR Victor Cruz - 100,1 -
WR Hakeem Nicks - 90,1 -
WR Mario Manningham - 60 -
PK Lawrence Tynes 2 FG 2 XP -
Pregame Notes: The Giants were riding high after beating the Patriots in week nine as a visitor but then came the loss in San Francisco. Back at home, they were taken down by an Eagles team no one, apparently including the Giants, thought would be much of a fight. The loss of Ahmad Bradshaw has never been compensated and games come down to how well Eli Manning can keep up. The upcoming stretch of games is pretty brutal but at least the Giants control their own destiny in the NFC East.

QUARTERBACK: Eli Manning has been valiantly trying to keep the team in games but he has no rushing support and the receivers choose odd times to suddenly develop a case of the drops. Manning does pass for over 250 yards every week and usually has two scores. He has 18 touchdowns on the season against nine interceptions.

The Saints usually allow high yardage and two scores to opponents because every game becomes a shootout of sorts. With a lack of a running game, figure on Manning passing for very nice yardage and scores if only in trash time.

RUNNING BACKS: The Giants are still waiting for medical clearance on Ahmad Bradshaw who has been out since week eight. Until he is cleared and practices, I will assume he needs another week. At least this is a Monday game and he gets the extra day to heal potentially. In his place, Brandon Jacobs has really done little more than he would have anyway. He scored once in New England but that is the only touchdown and his yardage has remained well under four yards per carry. He's a marginal start good for maybe 50 yards in a good game. D.J. Ware left last week with a concussion and may not play,

The Saints are easier to run on when away from home but in New Orleans have only allowed one rushing touchdown there and never more than 89 yards to a runner. Jacobs barely qualifies as a runner so expect another mediocre showing that makes you long for Ahmad Bradshaw.

WIDE RECEIVERS: This trio of wide receivers are among the best in the league and Hakeem Nicks is two games beyond the hamstring injury. Victor Cruz has grown into a major weapon on par with Nicks since he has turned in six games of 90+ yards and leads the team with five touchdowns. Mario Manningham was on a three game scoring streak but only came up with one catch against the Eagles. If a shootout happens this week - very likely - these are the guys you want on your team.

The Saints have not hosted a team with the passing ability of the Giants. Two scores should be near locks to end up here and all three should end up with no less than a decent game. The only team that passes well to face the Saints were the Packers who ended with three touchdowns and nearly 250 yards for their wide receivers.

TIGHT ENDS: Jake Ballard injured his elbow in the Eagles loss but was able to return and play after the X-rays were negative. Ballard had a couple bad drops in that game and has been less of a factor in recent weeks. The Saints are better against tight ends than wideouts anyway so consider Ballard just a moderate play for yardage.

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM QB RB WR TE PK DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points NYG 8 13 3 17 27 8
Preventing Fantasy Points NO 20 25 19 12 25 8


New Orleans Saints
Homefield: Superdome
Sportexe Turf
  Opp Score   Opp Score
1 @GB 34-42 10 @ATL 26-23
2 CHI 30-13 11 Bye -
3 HOU 40-33 12 NYG -
4 @JAC 23-10 13 DET -
5 @CAR 30-27 14 @TEN -
6 @TB 20-26 15 @MIN -
7 IND 62-7 16 ATL -
8 @STL 21-31 17 CAR -
9 TB 27-16 - - -
Saints Report | Statistics | Roster
NEW ORLEANS vs NYG Rush Catch Pass
QB Drew Brees - - 320,2
RB Mark Ingram 40,1 - -
RB Pierre Thomas 30 20 -
RB Darren Sproles 40 50,1 -
TE Jimmy Graham - 70,1 -
WR Marques Colston - 90 -
WR Lance Moore - 30 -
WR Devery Henderson - 20 -
WR Robert Meachem - 30 -
PK John Kasay 3 FG 3 XP -

Pregame Notes: The Saints are on the inside track for the division this year and only two remaining games are likely to be problematic - this week when the Giants show up and in week 16 when the Falcons come to town. But the Saints have already beaten the Falcons once in Atlanta and mostly will be playing for playoff seeding this season. The toughest part of the year is already over and now the Saints can just focus on remaining healthy and winning easier games.

QUARTERBACK: The Drew Brees machine chugs along and while there is no denying he is a force - 23 touchdowns already this year - he has been slightly less productive for the last three games with never more than two scores and twice throwing for a mere 260 yards or so. The easier the opponent, the less yardage that Brees tends to post. That's a good thing this week and perhaps less so for the stretch run.

The Giants have already allowed three opponents to pass for 300+ yards and multiple scores for those teams as well. Brees is worth 300 yards and two scores in most games and that's likely a starting point this week.

RUNNING BACKS: No changes to the maddening rotation in this backfield. Mark Ingram returns with the goal line role and some early down work. Pierre Thomas has nice fantasy value when Ingram was gone but shifts back outside of relevance when Ingram is playing. Darren Sproles remains the pass catcher in the group though he tends to have much less productive games when away from New Orleans - not a factor this week or the rest of the way much.

The Giants rush defense has been much less effective this year with six players topping 100 yards against them and allowing nine touchdowns. That will get split up here of course but should see Sproles with a nice yardage game and a decent chance for one score by Ingram.

WIDE RECEIVERS: This group is still amazingly nonproductive considering the past and outside of Marques Colston, none are consistent enough to merit any fantasy attention. Even Colston has scored in just two games and remains around 50 yards or so in most games. Lance Moore scored two weeks in a row but only turned in one catch for 28 yards last week and has produced less than 50 yards in almost every game. Robert Meachem scored in the Atlanta game but went five straight games scoreless and with fewer than 40 yards.

Colston remains the only reasonable play of the group since he has enough consistency to minimize his risk.

TIGHT ENDS: While Jimmy Graham has cooled from his four straight games over 100 yards, he has scored a total of six touchdowns on the season and showed up with 82 yards and a score in the recent tilt in Atlanta. His lowest games have been against the weakest opponents. Now the Giants come to town and have allowed three scores to tight ends in the last two home games. Graham is a must start anyway.

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM QB RB WR TE PK DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points NO 4 3 7 2 3 22
Preventing Fantasy Points NYG 14 18 23 13 15 16

WEEK 12
2011
GB at DET (thu) BUF at NYJ DEN at SD PIT at KC
MIA at DAL (thu) CAR at IND HOU at JAC TB at TEN
SF at BAL (thu) CHI at OAK MIN at ATL WAS at SEA
  ARI at STL CLE at CIN NE at PHI NYG at NO (mon)

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