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Predictions & Projections
David Dorey  

Sortable Player Projections | Game Predictions Summary | Projections by Team

WEEK 12
2011
GB at DET (thu) * BUF at NYJ DEN at SD PIT at KC
MIA at DAL (thu) * CAR at IND HOU at JAC * TB at TEN
SF at BAL (thu) * CHI at OAK * MIN at ATL * WAS at SEA
* UPDATED ARI at STL * CLE at CIN * NE at PHI * NYG at NO (mon)

Prediction: WAS 10, SEA 17

Players to Watch: WAS backfield purely for a chuckle

Update: Santana Moss had full practices and is expected to finally return this week from his hand injury which is still not yet 100%. I am inserting him into the projections but this first game back he is more likely to lower Jabbar Gaffney's stats than to produce fantasy relevant numbers himself.

The slumping Redskins are on a six game losing skid and take their 1-4 road record to face the Seahawks who are 2-2 at home and on a two game winning streak. This game smacks of an "under" since the Skins cannot score and both teams are better on defense than offense. This should end up as one of the lower scoring games of the week since the Skins are averaging around 13 points per road game.

Washington Redskins
Homefield: FedEx Field
Grass
  Opp Score   Opp Score
1 NYG 28-14 10 @MIA 9-20
2 ARI 22-21 11 DAL 24-27
3 @DAL 16-18 12 @SEA -
4 @STL 17-10 13 NYJ -
5 Bye - 14 NE -
6 PHI 13-20 15 @NYG -
7 @CAR 20-33 16 MIN -
8 @BUF 0-23 17 @PHI -
9 SF 11-19      
Redskins Report | Statistics | Roster
WASHINGTON at SEA Rush Catch Pass
QB Rex Grossman - - 250,1
RB Ryan Torain 20 - -
RB Roy Helu 40 10 -
TE Fred Davis - 60,1 -
WR Donte Stallworth - 20 -
WR Santana Moss - 50 -
WR Anthony Armstrong - 30 -
WR Jabbar Gaffney - 60 -
PK Graham Gano 1 FG 1 XP -
Pregame Notes: Even a home a game against the Cowboys could not break the bad luck mojo for the Skins when they missed a long field goal in overtime and then let Dallas march down and win once again by three points or less. The Skins defense has been rather good overall but the offense has lost what little punch it ever had. Rex Grossman has bumped up the scoring but not the results. And the backfield remains a study in insanity.

QUARTERBACK: While Rex Grossman comes off the best game by a Redskins quarterback this season - 289 yards and three touchdowns - he's back on the road where he's never been effective. Grossman has played in only three away venues and never had more than 250 yards and totals just two scores against five interceptions and one lost fumble. The biggest problem with Grossman is that you can never be sure if he will be allowed to finish a game.

The Seahawks have always allowed at least one passing score to visitors though only once did a team have two. The Seattle rush defense has been good enough to force opponents to pass more but the success has been marginal. No reason to expect more than one score and moderate yardage this week.

RUNNING BACKS: This could be where HC Mike Shanahan has been his worst (though some argue never having a decent QB qualifies). Roy Helu has been the only productive running back for the Redskins and last week went from being the #2 to being #3. Tashard Choice was rolled out to get back at his ex-employer who did not feel much pain from his six runs for seven yards. Ryan Torain was the starter for the second insane week in a row and in the last two weeks he's rolled up 24 yards on only 16 carries. Choice was kicked to the curb on Tuesday like a bag of old newspapers.

At the end of the game, like some sort of afterthought, Roy Helu has spent the last two games with only 76 yards on 14 runs (5.1 YPC). Yes, Helu is always the most productive and yet the least used.

This week it matters less in Seattle where the Seahawks have never allowed more than 70 rushing yards to any runner and only Michael Turner has scored. This is yet another week to stay away from this backfield. Helu could end up with some stats as a receiver if they will use him but that only happened once and John Beck was the starter that week.

WIDE RECEIVERS: Though Rex Grossman may not win games, at least these last two weeks have created one good fantasy wideout per matchup. Leonard Hankerson gained 106 yards on eight catches before blowing up his knee and against the Cowboys, Jabbar Gaffney comes off a season best 115 yards and a score on seven receptions - tops for any Redskin wideout this year. The Seattle defense has been solid in most games though and more so at home where only three wideouts have scored against them and only Julio Jones had a game of any note. Donte Stallworth was resigned by the Skins and produced four catches for 51 yards and one score. If he does that more than once, he would deserve more than a yawn. Once Moss returns, Stallworth takes another step backwards.

Santana Moss will try practicing and is not yet ruled out this week.

Chances are best that no score ends up here and it would not be reliable enough to bank on anyway. Gaffney remains just a yardage play.

TIGHT ENDS: Fred Davis has only produced nine catches for 77 yards over these last two Grossmanesque weeks but his best games came when Rex was under center. The last two opponents - MIA and DAL - were tougher on tight ends but the Seahawks have been weaker. The last visitor there was Ed Dixon of the Ravens who had ten catches for 79 yards and two touchdowns. This should be a better week for Davis.

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM QB RB WR TE PK DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points WAS 18 30 29 10 22 19
Preventing Fantasy Points SEA 9 5 11 26 21 29


Seattle Seahawks
Homefield: Qwest Field
FieldTurf
  Opp Score   Opp Score
1 @SF 17-33 10 BAL 22-17
2 @PIT 0-24 11 @STL 24-7
3 ARI 13-10 12 WAS -
4 ATL 28-30 13 PHI -
5 @NYG 36-25 14 STL -
6 Bye - 15 @CHI -
7 @CLE 3-6 16 SF -
8 CIN 12-34 17 @ARI -
9 @DAL 13-23      
Seahawks Report | Statistics | Roster
SEATTLE vs WAS Rush Catch Pass
QB Tarvaris Jackson - - 220,1
RB Marshawn Lynch 90,1 - -
WR Sidney Rice - 40 -
WR Doug Baldwin - 50,1 -
WR Mike Williams - 40 -
WR Ben Obamanu - 20 -
PK Steven Hauschka 1 FG 2 XP -

Pregame Notes: The never consistent Seahawks come off two nice wins - at home they trapped the Ravens and then put the stomp on the Rams who no longer can even play competitively at home. This week should be one of two remaining sure wins (STL too) but with the 49ers so far ahead the season is already over as far as the postseason is concerned. But with four home games remaining, more trap games could be coming since the Seahawks are always better at home and the defense can do the damage.

QUARTERBACK: Tarvaris Jackson remains in charge of one of the worst passing attacks in the NFL. As a team the Seahawks only have eight passing touchdowns on the season and Jackson has thrown a score in only four of his nine games played. He does have 11 interceptions and two lost fumbles and oddly enough has just one game of four at home where he passed for a touchdown.

The Skins are about average against the pass and allow just an average 230 yards and one score in most road games. That matches up with the high side of Jackson.

RUNNING BACKS: Marshawn Lynch is really no different than he has ever been but thanks to a few good runs and mostly goal line carries, he has scored in each of the last six games. He gained 88 yards or more in five of those six and yet, amazingly, only has a 3.8 yard per carry average. He received 23+ carries per week for the last three outings and produces fantasy stats by sheer volume of carries.

That should happen again this week against a decent rushing defense of the Redskins that plays softer on the road. Lynch has very limited upside but at least he has been consistently good in fantasy terms thanks to the one touchdown.

WIDE RECEIVERS: It is not enough to merely be one of the worst passing attacks, but those meager stats all get divided up by four or five wide receivers each week so that none of them have any reliable fantasy value. Sidney Rice scored last week but that was only his second on the season and he still only produced 35 yards on three catches. Bottom line - none of these receivers are certain to gain more than maybe 20 yards in a week. Doug Baldwin has caught a long pass in each of the last two games to help out but has not scored since week five. Even Rice is a poor play lately.

That all said, if there is one passing touchdown it will end up here. Who gets it is a guess since none of them have more than two scores on the season. I'll credit Baldwin but that's mostly a placeholder.

TIGHT ENDS: No fantasy value.

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM QB RB WR TE PK DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points SEA 28 23 13 31 32 18
Preventing Fantasy Points WAS 10 13 7 23 31 21

WEEK 12
2011
GB at DET (thu) BUF at NYJ DEN at SD PIT at KC
MIA at DAL (thu) CAR at IND HOU at JAC TB at TEN
SF at BAL (thu) CHI at OAK MIN at ATL WAS at SEA
  ARI at STL CLE at CIN NE at PHI NYG at NO (mon)

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