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FANTASY FOOTBALL IN-SEASON FEATURES

Predictions & Projections
David Dorey  

Sortable Player Projections | Game Predictions Summary | Projections by Team

WEEK 13
2011
PHI at SEA (thu) CIN at PIT * GB at NYG * OAK at MIA
* ATL at HOU DAL at ARI * IND at NE * STL at SF
BAL at CLE * DEN at MIN KC at CHI TEN at BUF
* Updated * CAR at TB * DET at NO NYJ at WAS SD at JAC (mon)

Prediction: BAL 20, CLE 16

The Ravens remain tied with the Steelers at 8-3 in the AFC North though they own the tie breaker. The Browns remain at the cellar with a 4-7 record but are 3-3 at home while the Ravens are only 2-3 away from Baltimore.

Baltimore Ravens
Homefield: M&T Bank Stadium
Sport Turf
  Opp Score   Opp Score
1 PIT 35-7 10 @SEA 17-22
2 @TEN 13-26 11 CIN 31-24
3 @STL 37-7 12 SF 16-6
4 NYJ 34-17 13 @CLE -
5 Bye - 14 IND -
6 HOU 29-14 15 @SD -
7 @JAC 7-9 16 CLE -
8 ARI 30-27 17 @CIN -
9 @PIT 23-20   - -
Ravens Report | Statistics | Roster
BALTIMORE at CLE Rush Catch Pass
QB Joe Flacco - - 200,1
RB Ray Rice 80,1 40 -
TE Ed Dickson - 20,1 -
WR Anquan Boldin - 40 -
WR Lee Evans - 20 -
WR Torrey Smith - 50 -
PK Billy Cundiff 2 FG 2 XP -
Pregame Notes: The Ravens have been surprisingly bad on the road and only beaten the Rams and Steelers while losing to the Titans, Jaguars and Seahawks. And Ray Rice is likely to miss this week as well which hurts but the Ravens remaining schedule is hardly daunting and only the final game in Cincy may see them not favored. But the Browns? The Ravens have won every matchup since 2007.

QUARTERBACK: The temporary spike from playing the Bengals - 270 yards and two touchdowns - did not last for Joe Flacco. He only posted 161 yards and one touchdown against the 49ers in the Battle of the Brothers. Even including the one decent showing, Flacco has only passed for six touchdowns over the last eight games along with six interceptions and four lost fumbles. On the plus side, last week was the first time since the season opener that he had no turnovers and as a game manager - and little else - that is a primary concern for him. Flacco has only thrown more than one score just once in the last eight weeks.

Facing the NFL's best unit against quarterbacks, assume a lower effort here from Flacco who has hardly been a fantasy gem much lately anyway. Only ten passing scores have been allowed by the Browns - Flacco will happy enough to get just one.

RUNNING BACKS: Ray Rice was only marginally effective against the 49ers defense but that was to be expected even in a home game. The problem this week is that he is on the road again where he has never played well this season. Even in St. Louis he only had 81 rushing yards and otherwise has never run for more than 50 yards in an away game. Fortunately his role as a receiver always increases away from Baltimore and he has been a safe bet for close to 100 total yards in almost every game.

The Browns have a problem stopping the run but at home are better and have only given up two rushing scores to running backs. Rice is a must start and should have a good game here but the monster effort likely comes in week 16 when the Browns visit Baltimore.

WIDE RECEIVERS: Marginal passing stats translate into the same for the wideouts who have both scored in three different games and had two 100+ yard efforts. Anquan Boldin had his two big yardage efforts both at home and then scored in games where he had lower yardage. His most recent score was on his only catch in the game against the visiting Bengals. Torrey Smith blew up in the Cincy game and also in St. Louis but otherwise has been lower key and just as likely to end with fewer than 35 yards. Lee Evans is back and has only one catch in two games. The two starters can have a big game but they are rare and harder to call. And when they are not posting those big stats they are very mediocre in fantasy terms.

CB Joe Haden naturally matches on with Anquan Boldin and should keep him in check. That leaves Torrey Smith the better bet but the Browns have only allowed four touchdowns thrown to a wideout this year and no wideout has turned in more than 87 yards in Cleveland. Expect a lesser effort this week.

TIGHT ENDS: There is no reliable fantasy stats from this unit comprised of Ed Dickson and Dennis Pitta. Dickson has been the better bet in most games and scored three times but even he has remained well below 50 yards in all but one of the last eight games. Pitta has even less though he caught his first touchdown of the season in the 49ers game.

The weakness of the secondary is with tight ends and Jermaine Gresham just scored on them last week for the sixth touchdown allowed to the position. No fantasy value here because of the inconsistency and lower stats but the score is more likely to end up here.

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM QB RB WR TE PK DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points BAL 22 6 24 13 4 2
Preventing Fantasy Points CLE 1 23 1 22 25 11


Cleveland Browns
Homefield: Cleveland Stadium
Grass
  Opp Score   Opp Score
1 CIN 17-27 10 STL 12-13
2 @IND 27-19 11 JAC 14-10
3 MIA 17-16 12 @CIN 20-23
4 TEN 13-31 13 BAL -
5 Bye - 14 @PIT -
6 @OAK 17-24 15 @ARI -
7 SEA 6-3 16 @BAL -
8 @SF 10-20 17 PIT -
9 @HOU 12-30      
Browns Report | Statistics | Roster
CLEVELAND vs BAL Rush Catch Pass
QB Colt McCoy - - 150
RB Peyton Hillis 60,1 10 -
RB Montario Hardesty 20 10 -
TE Ben Watson - 20 -
WR Mohamed Massaquoi - 30 -
WR Greg Little - 50 -
PK Phil Dawson 3 FG 1 XP -

Pregame Notes: The season is realistically over but at least the Browns have done most of their scoring - such as it was - in games against divisional opponents and still have both matchups left with the Ravens and Steelers over the final five games. That's plenty brutal but at least the players are getting healthy for the final bloody gauntlet.

QUARTERBACK: No changes here to the game manager Colt McCoy and his one touchdown per week standard that rarely crests much over 200 yards. This week he has to rely on the Ravens continuing to be less formidable on the road he'll still struggle to get one touchdown pass. Never enough yardage to merit fantasy consideration, it could be even less this time facing the #2 defense against quarterbacks.

RUNNING BACKS: Last week Montario Hardesty was slated to play but his injured calf tightened up in pregame warmups and he never played a down. Peyton Hillis was also returning from his own hamstring injury and took the full load, running for 65 yards on 19 carries and not suffering any setback. Chris Ogbonnaya was limited to only three runs with Hillis back and won't get that much if Hardesty can make it this week.

The road Ravens are softer against the run with two of the last three road trips allowing a 100 yard rusher and a score. That's less likely here, but the score is possible and moderate yardage divided up assuming Hardesty can play this week.

WIDE RECEIVERS: Greg Little turned in his first NFL touchdown last week and ended with 57 yards on five catches against the Bengals but he also dropped several other passes. Mohamed Massaquoi was not only blanked by the Bengals, it was his second time in the last three games so he falls completely from fantasy relevance. Josh Cribbs had been a growing factor but returned to mostly just special teams as of last week. The slot man Jordan Norwood also scored and had 69 yards on four catches but has been of little production in all other games this year.

The Ravens secondary is the weakest link of the defense and the most likely place for a passing score to end up. But there is no wideout here even remotely worthy of a fantasy start so disregard this position every week.

TIGHT ENDS: No fantasy value.

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM QB RB WR TE PK DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points CLE 25 32 27 11 22 32
Preventing Fantasy Points BAL 2 4 11 2 5 21

WEEK 13
2011
PHI at SEA (thu) CIN at PIT GB at NYG OAK at MIA
ATL at HOU DAL at ARI IND at NE STL at SF
BAL at CLE DEN at MIN KC at CHI TEN at BUF
  CAR at TB DET at NO NYJ at WAS SD at JAC (mon)

a d v e r t i s e m e n t