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FANTASY FOOTBALL IN-SEASON FEATURES

Predictions & Projections
David Dorey  

Sortable Player Projections | Game Predictions Summary | Projections by Team

WEEK 13
2011
PHI at SEA (thu) CIN at PIT * GB at NYG * OAK at MIA
* ATL at HOU DAL at ARI * IND at NE * STL at SF
BAL at CLE * DEN at MIN KC at CHI TEN at BUF
* Updated * CAR at TB * DET at NO NYJ at WAS SD at JAC (mon)

Prediction: CAR 27, TB 17

Update: Josh Freeman will be a game time decision because of his shoulder and even if he plays he is no lock to make it through the entire game. If he cannot play, Mike Williams' takes a hit in fantasy value.

This is the first meeting between these divisional rivals and the 4-7 Buccaneers have been 3-3 at home while the 3-8 Panthers are only 1-4 on the road and only that thanks to the Colts last week. But the Buccaneers are on a five game losing streak and are struggling to post any points.

Carolina Panthers
Homefield: Bank of America Stadium
Grass
  Opp Score   Opp Score
1 @ARI 21-28 10 TEN 3-30
2 GB 23-30 11 @DET 35-49
3 JAC 16-10 12 @IND 27-19
4 @CHI 29-34 13 @TB -
5 NO 27-30 14 ATL -
6 @ATL 17-31 15 @HOU -
7 WAS 33-20 16 TB -
8 MIN 21-24 17 @NO -
9 Bye -      
Panthers Report | Statistics | Roster
CAROLINA at TB Rush Catch Pass
QB Cam Newton 60,1 - 240,1
RB DeAngelo Williams 70 - -
RB Jonathan Stewart 50,1 10 -
TE Greg Olsen - 30 -
WR Brandon LaFell - 40 -
WR Steve Smith - 60,1 -
WR Legedu Naanee - 50 -
PK Olindo Mare 2 FG 3 XP -
Pregame Notes: The Panthers still struggle to win most games but mainly thanks to the defense that remains bottom ten against all positions. The offense has been on a nice streak as of late with four of the last five games ending up scoring 21 or more points. The remaining schedule is not easy but the Panthers are playing for next year anyway. This week could be a nice statement game with a second consecutive road win.

QUARTERBACK: Cam Newton scored ten rushing touchdowns to set the rookie QB record and to come within two of the all-time record for quarterbacks. With five games left to play, it should be a lock to happen. Newton has remained above 200 passing yards in all but one game and has 12 passing touchdowns as well. He remains almost a guarantee for 50 yards and a rushing score every week.

The Buccaneers allow at least one score if not two or three to every opposing quarterback along with healthy yardage so expect a big game here since the Buccaneers also rank poorly against the run. Newton could double up on rushing scores for the third time this season.

RUNNING BACKS: DeAngelo Williams had a freakish game at Indy when he scored twice on his 15 runs for 69 yards. Williams only scored once previously this year and his 15 carries were also a season high. More often he sticks around ten runs per week. Jonathan Stewart did not score but had one of his better games of the year when he ran for 70 yards on ten runs and added three catches for 12 yards.

This week they face a rush defense no better than the Colts and one that has allowed four runners to top 100 yards and gave up 14 touchdowns to running backs. That could easily end up with Newton of course as it has in most every other game this year. This is one of the easiest matchups left on the schedule (along with the rematch in week 16) and it is going to be one of the few remaining spots where playing either running back carries less risk and some upside. But they always split and rarely score.

WIDE RECEIVERS: The Panthers face a soft secondary that could allow a nice game for Steve Smith this week but the same was true in Indy and he only turned in three catches for 68 yards. No other wideout here carries any real fantasy value so far and yet Smith has seen a decline in his stats in recent weeks. Over the last three games, he scored only once and averaged only around 50 yards per matchup. I'll forecast a score for Smith since he is the most likely to catch it but it is no longer the highly probable event it was earlier in the year.

TIGHT ENDS: Like Smith, Greg Olsen has really decline over the last month or more with only one touchdown since week five and fewer than 50 yards for the last three weeks. He's lost his fantasy value for now.


RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM QB RB WR TE PK DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points CAR 2 23 15 8 17 25
Preventing Fantasy Points TB 23 31 22 24 23 19


Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Homefield: Raymond James Stadium
Grass
  Opp Score   Opp Score
1 DET 20-27 10 HOU 9-37
2 @MIN 24-20 11 @GB 26-35
3 ATL 16-13 12 @TEN 17-23
4 IND 24-17 13 CAR -
5 @SF 3-48 14 @JAC -
6 NO 26-20 15 DAL -
7 CHI 18-24 16 @CAR -
8 Bye - 17 @ATL -
9 @NO 16-27      
Buccaneers Report | Statistics | Roster
TAMPA BAY vs CAR Rush Catch Pass
QB Josh Freeman - - 220,1
RB LeGarrette Blount 120,1 10 -
TE Kellen Winslow Jr. - 50 -
WR Preston Parker - 20 -
WR Mike Williams - 80,1 -
WR Arrelious Benn - 40 -
PK Conner Barth 1 FG 2 XP -

Pregame Notes: The offense has been hard-pressed to throw many points on the board since midseason thanks to a rushing offense that rarely scores and Josh Freeman who throws for one score and moderate yardage no matter what the situation calls for. The defense has not allowed fewer than 20 points for the last seven games though the offense topped 20 points only twice in that time frame.

QUARTERBACK: The offense has just never gotten into a higher gear this season and whatever magic Josh Freeman had in the past with scoring touchdowns and avoiding interceptions has been lost. Freeman has thrown for 12 touchdowns on the year with 16 interceptions. He's only had one game without a score but has almost never posted any significant fantasy points this year.

Chances are good that Freeman will see his standard one touchdown pass against a secondary that has allowed as much to all but one opponent. But the yardage is not likely to be more than moderate if even that.

RUNNING BACKS: While LeGarrette Blount has been light on scoring - just two touchdowns in the last seven games - he has topped 100 rush yards three times. He had a season best three catches for 56 yards in Tennessee and surprisingly posted back-to-back 100 yard games in both Green Bay and Tennessee. Going against the very weak Buccaneer rush defense will prove a big benefit here as it has for every opponent. The Bucs have already surrendered 17 touchdowns to the position so even Blount should pick up at least one score. This will be as good as it is going to get for Blount this season.

WIDE RECEIVERS :Mike Williams has finally come back to life with two straight games over 80 yards and with one touchdown in each. No other wide receiver has more than one 80+ yard game for the Bucs if even that much and the yardage has been below average every week. The unit has accounted for ten touchdowns so far to maintain some value, they just don;t do much outside of the score or so every week.

The Panthers secondary has allowed about one score per week for opposing wideouts anyway and Williams is by far the more likely to catch a score for what would be three consecutive weeks. No other wideout here has any discernible fantasy value.

TIGHT ENDS: Aside from his freakish 132 yard performance against the Packers, Kellen Winslow Jr. has been trudging along with more than around 50 yards per week and has scored just twice. The Panthers are weaker against the position but Winslow just has not been a real factor all year.

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM QB RB WR TE PK DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points TB 15 28 18 20 18 19
Preventing Fantasy Points CAR 17 32 8 20 26 26

WEEK 13
2011
PHI at SEA (thu) CIN at PIT GB at NYG OAK at MIA
ATL at HOU DAL at ARI IND at NE STL at SF
BAL at CLE DEN at MIN KC at CHI TEN at BUF
  CAR at TB DET at NO NYJ at WAS SD at JAC (mon)

a d v e r t i s e m e n t