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Predictions & Projections
David Dorey  

Sortable Player Projections | Game Predictions Summary | Projections by Team

WEEK 13
2011
PHI at SEA (thu) CIN at PIT * GB at NYG * OAK at MIA
* ATL at HOU DAL at ARI * IND at NE * STL at SF
BAL at CLE * DEN at MIN KC at CHI TEN at BUF
* Updated * CAR at TB * DET at NO NYJ at WAS SD at JAC (mon)

Prediction: CIN 16, PIT 24

This is the rematch of week ten when the Steelers won 24-17 in Cincinnati. A win by the Steelers sweeps the Bengals and keeps pace with the Ravens though they own the tiebreaker of head to head. A win by the Bengals just makes the Ravens that much more likely to win the division and yet keeps the Bengals alive in the hunt for a wildcard at the least. If the Bengals cannot beat them at home, seems less likely they will win on the road.

Cincinnati Bengals
Homefield: Paul Brown Stadium
FieldTurf
  Opp Score   Opp Score
1 @CLE 27-17 10 PIT 17-24
2 @DEN 22-24 11 @BAL 24-31
3 SF 8-13 12 CLE 23-20
4 BUF 23-20 13 @PIT -
5 @JAC 30-20 14 HOU -
6 IND 27-17 15 @STL -
7 Bye - 16 ARI -
8 @SEA 34-12 17 BAL -
9 @TEN 24-17      
Bengals Report | Statistics | Roster
CINCINNATI at PIT Rush Catch Pass
QB Andy Dalton - - 200,1
RB Cedric Benson 50 - -
TE Jermaine Gresham - 50,1 -
WR A.J. Green - 40 -
WR Jerome Simpson - 30 -
WR Andre Caldwell - 50 -
PK Mike Nugent 3 FG 1 XP -
Pregame Notes: The Bengals are on the outside looking in for the divisional title and that's not likely to change but at 7-4 and with three very winnable games left to play - HOU, @STL and ARI - the Bengals could very well make the playoffs with a 10-6 record since the bar is lower this year than most. The offense has everyone back and healthy again and this week is the lone remaining tough road game. With any luck, the season finale against the Ravens will have them resting players in the final game and allow the Bengals a chance for a win they might not get any other week.

QUARTERBACK: Andy Dalton only passed for 170 yards and two scores with two interceptions in the previous meeting with the Steelers. He only completed 50% of his passes in one of his lowest outputs of the year. The Steelers have been even better against the pass at home this year so expect just one score from Dalton to match the five touchdowns that the Steelers gave up over their five previous home stands.

RUNNING BACKS: Even playing at home, Cedric Benson only managed 57 yards on 15 carries against the visiting Steelers for his worst game there. Now he travels to Pittsburgh where all but one runner was held to 51 or fewer yards. Chances are this will be even worse than his first matchup with the Steelers. Troy Polamalu playing won't be any help.

WIDE RECEIVERS: A.J. Green scored once in week ten when the Steelers showed up but only had the one 36-yard catch in the game. Andrew Hawkins actually led the team with 56 yards on five receptions while Andre Caldwell had the most targets with eight but only hauled in three receptions for 25 yards. Jerome Simpson was thrown four passes but had his only game with no catch on the year.

The primary wideout has never scored in Pittsburgh this year which means Green may not get that one scoring pass. The Steelers were able to handle the Bengals wideouts well just three weeks ago - figure on another down effort from the crew and likely no touchdown this time.

TIGHT ENDS: Jermaine Gresham has been a bigger factor in the last month and even scored once on the Steelers three weeks back when he caught four passes for 23 yards. He comes off a 68-yard effort over the Browns with a touchdown and has five scores on the season. Gresham is the best bet for a score and decent yardage from the Bengals this week.

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM QB RB WR TE PK DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points CIN 16 25 10 14 12 9
Preventing Fantasy Points PIT 3 10 3 9 7 17


Pittsburgh Steelers
Homefield: Heinz Field
Grass
  Opp Score   Opp Score
1 @BAL 7-35 10 @CIN 24-17
2 SEA 24-0 11 Bye -
3 @IND 23-20 12 @KC 13-9
4 @HOU 10-17 13 CIN -
5 TEN 38-17 14 CLE -
6 JAC 17-13 15 @SF -
7 @ARI 32-20 16 STL -
8 NE 25-17 17 @CLE -
9 BAL 20-23      
Steelers Report | Statistics | Roster
PITTSBURGH vs CIN Rush Catch Pass
QB Ben Roethlisberger - - 260,2
RB Rashard Mendenhall 60,1 10 -
TE Heath Miller - 40 -
WR Antonio Brown - 70,1 -
WR Hines Ward - 30 -
WR Emmanuel Sanders - 30 -
WR Mike Wallace - 80,1 -
PK Shaun Suisham 1 FG 3 XP -

Pregame Notes: The good news is that Troy Polamalu is expected to play this week after having "concussion-like" symptoms last week. The bad news is that Polamalu is starting to look like the type to have his career cut short by concussions before he ends up sitting in a room eating cereal for the rest of his life. The Steelers can still hope that the Ravens stumble and give back the division and the remaining schedule should be a nice string of wins other than the one trip to San Francisco but even that may not be bad since the 49ers will have already clinched a month before that and yet won't be able to reach the #1 seed.

QUARTERBACK: Ben Roethlisberger says he is not bothered by his thumb though he only passed for 193 yards and a score in Kansas City in their first game after the bye. Big Ben threw for 245 yards and one score in Cincy just two games ago but was sacked five times and had one interception. He always scores at least once in a home and most of his best yardage efforts have come in Pittsburgh.

The Bengals on the road allowed two passing scores to most opponents despite only giving up a stingy four touchdowns when at home. The last three opponents have also topped 270 yards on them so look for a better game from Big Ben this week.

RUNNING BACKS: Rashard Mendenhall only gained 44 yards on 16 runs in Cincy in week ten but he scored twice for the only time this season, Mendenhall has been much better in home games and scored in all but one. He is still light on yardage even in Pittsburgh and has little role as a receiver but is good for one touchdown.

WIDE RECEIVERS: After a season of solid scoring and yardage, Mike Wallace has fallen off his pace for the last two games with no scores and not more than 55 yards and that includes the first matchup with the Bengals. But both were on the road and back at home is where Wallace always gains 70+ yards and has scored in all but one game. Antonio Brown has been on a nice yardage streak with over 70 yards for the last five games though he has just one score on the season. None of the other wideouts amount to much in any game but this week I like both Brown and Wallace at home to show up with solid yardage and a good chance for one score each. The Bengals secondary has been much weaker in road games and just gave up two scores each to the wideouts from the Ravens and Titans.

TIGHT ENDS: Heath Miller gained a standard 31 yards on three catches against the Bengals and has not scored since week seven. Last week Weslye Saunders scored on his only catch in the game and has just three receptions on the season.

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM QB RB WR TE PK DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points PIT 11 21 2 16 16 28
Preventing Fantasy Points CIN 7 12 16 5 6 2

WEEK 13
2011
PHI at SEA (thu) CIN at PIT GB at NYG OAK at MIA
ATL at HOU DAL at ARI IND at NE STL at SF
BAL at CLE DEN at MIN KC at CHI TEN at BUF
  CAR at TB DET at NO NYJ at WAS SD at JAC (mon)

a d v e r t i s e m e n t