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FANTASY FOOTBALL IN-SEASON FEATURES

Predictions & Projections
David Dorey  

Sortable Player Projections | Game Predictions Summary | Projections by Team

WEEK 13
2011
PHI at SEA (thu) CIN at PIT * GB at NYG * OAK at MIA
* ATL at HOU DAL at ARI * IND at NE * STL at SF
BAL at CLE * DEN at MIN KC at CHI TEN at BUF
* Updated * CAR at TB * DET at NO NYJ at WAS SD at JAC (mon)

Prediction: NYJ 16, WAS 20

The Jets come off a much needed win over the Bills that stops the sliding at 6-5 before any chance of postseason play is gone. The Jets are only 1-4 on the road though and they head to Washington to play the 4-7 Redskins who are only 2-3 at home. This will be a messy game to gauge other than it won't likely have a lot of points. The Skins just ended their six game losing streak.

New York Jets
Homefield: Meadowlands Stadium
FieldTurf
  Opp Score   Opp Score
1 DAL 27-24 10 NE 16-37
2 JAC 32-3 11 @DEN 13-17
3 @OAK 24-34 12 BUF 28-24
4 @BAL 17-34 13 @WAS -
5 @NE 21-30 14 KC -
6 MIA 24-6 15 @PHI -
7 SD 27-21 16 NYG -
8 Bye - 17 @MIA -
9 @BUF 27-11      
Jets Report | Statistics | Roster
NY JETS at WAS Rush Catch Pass
QB Mark Sanchez - - 220,1
RB Shonn Greene 60 10 -
TE Dustin Keller - 50 -
WR Plaxico Burress - 60,1 -
WR Santonio Holmes - 40 -
PK Nick Folk 3 FG 1 XP -
Pregame Notes: The specter of any playing time in January is getting smaller and the remaining schedule could easily be all wins or all losses thanks to playing several highly inconsistent teams and pulling three road trips in the final five weeks. The offseason will be an interesting one since virtually all pieces of the offense disappointed and failed to meet basic expectations.

QUARTERBACK: Mark Sanchez comes off a four touchdown game over the Bills but he's been little more than a game manager since the ground and pound returned about a month ago. Sanchez currently stands at 18 touchdowns against 11 interceptions and five lost fumbles. He's basically been little better than any average quarterback.

The Redskins are very good at home against the pass where almost all teams have had to settle for one score and low 200's in passing yardage just like a standard Sanchez road game.

RUNNING BACKS: LaDainian Tomlinson has been out with a sprained knee but has not been ruled out this week yet. But regardless, Tomlinson the third down back has remained below fantasy relevance and while he has been out, Joe McKnight has been no better. McKnight had some success against the Broncos but then turned around and only had 40 total yards against the visiting Bills. There is no reason to project for either as a sub-standard fantasy start.

Shonn Greene rolled up 78 yards on only 13 carries last week and that was with bruised ribs that bothered him the entire game. But Greene on the road has been even less productive and he only has two scores on the season and none in the last seven games. Greene only has one effort over 100 yards.

The Redskins are much weaker versus the run when away from home but in Washington they have been very solid and that holding down better backs - DeMarco Murray (25-73) and Frank Gore (19-107) as recent examples. Greene has never taken the next step up and that shows up more away from home where he typically gets fewer carries.

WIDE RECEIVERS: The scoring is here, not so much the yardage. Santonio Holmes caught his fifth score of the year in the Bills win but only had 22 yards on two catches and aside from facing the terrible secondary of the Patriots, Holmes has not topped 40 yards in over a month. Plaxico Burress also scored on the Bills and has fared marginally better with most games producing around 50 of 60 yards. The return to a heavier emphasis on rushing hasn't moved the ball any better, it just kills the clock faster and reduces the number of catches for the wide receivers. Patrick Turner has been replacing Jeremy Kerley while he is out but with minimal results.

The Skins have been very good against the wideouts this year and more so at home where only three wideouts have scored against them and two of those were on the Cowboys last week. Expect no more than one touchdown that should favor Burress only slightly. As always, the yardage attached will be moderate at best.

TIGHT ENDS: Dustin Keller comes off a shocking game of two touchdowns and 61 yards on four catches. Keller had not scored since week two and had been used more as a blocker for the past month. He cannot be reliable for more than around 40 yards or so.

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM QB RB WR TE PK DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points NYJ 12 20 20 15 21 8
Preventing Fantasy Points WAS 10 18 6 19 27 22


Washington Redskins
Homefield: FedEx Field
Grass
  Opp Score   Opp Score
1 NYG 28-14 10 @MIA 9-20
2 ARI 22-21 11 DAL 24-27
3 @DAL 16-18 12 @SEA 23-17
4 @STL 17-10 13 NYJ -
5 Bye - 14 NE -
6 PHI 13-20 15 @NYG -
7 @CAR 20-33 16 MIN -
8 @BUF 0-23 17 @PHI -
9 SF 11-19      
Redskins Report | Statistics | Roster
WASHINGTON vs NYJ Rush Catch Pass
QB Rex Grossman - - 200,1
RB Roy Helu 70,1 50 -
TE Fred Davis - 50,1 -
WR Santana Moss - 40 -
WR Anthony Armstrong - 20 -
WR Jabbar Gaffney - 30 -
PK Graham Gano 2 FG 2 XP -

Pregame Notes: The switch back to Rex Grossman along with using the obvious choice at running back was all that was needed to finally end the six game slide and that came in a road game no less. The Skins season is already over for all intents and purposes but at least now they know just how many of the players on their team they need to replace in the offseason. After shuffling through and past Roy Helu, Shanahan has anointed him as the starter now though it all comes perhaps a month and a half too late. The remaining schedule is no cakewalk to be sure, but at least Santana Moss is back and the right QB and RB is starting. Only needed 13 weeks to get there.

QUARTERBACK: What a difference. Under John Beck, the Skins never passed for more than one touchdown and twice had no scores. With Rex Grossman. the last two weeks were 292 yards and two scores against the Cowboys (plus a rushing TD) and then 314 yards and two scores in the Seattle win. Yes, it comes with a few more turnovers but at least the ball is always moving somewhere.

No mistake - the Jets are good against the pass. Over five road games they have only surrendered two passing scores though that in part is due to the shaky rushing defense that spits out yards and scores in most road games. Safest play here is to expect no more than one score and marginal yardage from Grossman.

RUNNING BACKS: Like the wayward bridegroom, HC Mike Shanahan is committing to Roy Helu as the starter "for sure" and he really means it this time. He apparently watched game film from <pick any game> and noticed that <pick any non-Helu RB> sucked as a running back but Helu always succeeded far in excess of his Redskins brothers when given the chance.

The beauty of Helu is that he can run well enough against even good defenses, and he doubles as a great receiver. In week nine, he had 14 catches for 105 yards to set a franchise record. Last week it was 54 yards on seven receptions and that was after he gained 108 and a score on 23 runs.

The Jets on the road are soft against the run and allowed six rushing touchdowns in their five previous matchups. It is optimistic to expect a monster game from Helu this week but he should cobble together at least 100 total yards with a good chance for at least one score. That makes for a fantasy starter in any league.

WIDE RECEIVERS: Santana Moss returned last week after being out for five games and made it through with no setbacks to his broken hand but he only had four catches for 29 yards while Jabbar Gaffney ended with 72 yards on five receptions and had 115 yards and a score in the Cowboys loss. Anthony Armstrong scored for the first time since the season opener but that was his first reception in four games.

Darrell Revis will latch onto one of these wideouts and Gaffney is both his natural match and the better wideout for at least this week. None of the wideouts for the Skins carry much appeal for this week.

TIGHT ENDS: The return of Grossman sparked an improvement for Fred Davis who has just over 50 yards in these last two games and scored in the Seattle win. The Jets a more likely to allow the score to end up here with Davis though the yardage may not be that significant.

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM QB RB WR TE PK DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points WAS 17 30 28 9 23 22
Preventing Fantasy Points NYJ 6 13 5 17 15 31

WEEK 13
2011
PHI at SEA (thu) CIN at PIT GB at NYG OAK at MIA
ATL at HOU DAL at ARI IND at NE STL at SF
BAL at CLE DEN at MIN KC at CHI TEN at BUF
  CAR at TB DET at NO NYJ at WAS SD at JAC (mon)

a d v e r t i s e m e n t