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Predictions & Projections
David Dorey  

Sortable Player Projections | Game Predictions Summary | Projections by Team

WEEK 13
2011
PHI at SEA (thu) CIN at PIT * GB at NYG * OAK at MIA
* ATL at HOU DAL at ARI * IND at NE * STL at SF
BAL at CLE * DEN at MIN KC at CHI TEN at BUF
* Updated * CAR at TB * DET at NO NYJ at WAS SD at JAC (mon)

Prediction: OAK 23, MIA 20

Update: Moore was unable to practice and is already listed out for the week.

The Raiders have a full game lead over the Broncos in the AFC West where chances are you gotta win the division or miss the playoffs. The Raiders are 4-1 in road games and take their three game winning streak to Miami where the Dolphins are only 2-3 at home and come off their one point loss to the Cowboys on Thanksgiving. This is a coin toss game and the Fins have prepared for ten days but the Raiders are just better away from home.

Oakland Raiders
Homefield: McAfee Coliseum
Grass
  Opp Score   Opp Score
1 @DEN 23-20 10 @SD 24-17
2 @BUF 35-38 11 @MIN 27-21
3 NYJ 34-24 12 CHI 25-20
4 NE 19-31 13 @MIA -
5 @HOU 25-20 14 @GB -
6 CLE 24-17 15 DET -
7 KC 0-28 16 @KC -
8 Bye - 17 SD -
9 DEN 24-38      
Raiders Report | Statistics | Roster
OAKLAND at MIA Rush Catch Pass
QB Carson Palmer - - 250,2
RB Michael Bush 60 30 -
TE Kevin Boss - 30 -
WR Louis Murphy - 50 -
WR Chaz Schilens - 30,1 -
WR Denarius Moore - 60,1 -
WR Darrius Heyward-Bey - 60,1 -
PK Sebastian Janikowski 2 FG 3 XP -
Pregame Notes: This final stretch run is not going to be an easy one with road games in Miami and Green Bay and then hosting the Lions. Darren McFadden cannot get healthy and there are receivers on the mend as well. But the Raiders have been consistently good on the road so this will be a competitive game and one that Carson Palmer is going to have to make happen.

QUARTERBACK: Carson Palmer comes off his first start without any scores but he still posted 301 yards on the Bears and that was without both Denarius Moore and Jacoby Ford on the field. He has six touchdowns in four starts and even rushed in a score in Minnesota. He faces a Miami secondary that has allowed one or two scores to all decent passing teams and yet the yardage has remained barely over 200 yards since opening the year allowing Tom Brady to pass for 517 yards.

Expect Palmer to throw for at least one score and likely two as do most opponents. He should end up with only moderate yardage.

RUNNING BACKS: Darren McFadden remains out with the foot that will never heal and so Michael Bush gets his fifth start in a row and shows just how important carrying the backup for your stud running backs can be. Bush has scored four times in those five games and had over 100 total yards in all but the Chicago matchup where he settled for 69 rush yards and 24 yards on four receptions. The Dolphins present the most stout defense that Bush has yet faced and only two runners have scored on them this year. They have allowed only one game over 87 rush yards.

Bush is a central key to the offense but he'll need to add receptions to maintain his fantasy value. A touchdown is less likely this week than any of the starts that Bush had. Last week full back Marcel Reese was called into service as a receiver and ended with 92 yards on five catches but that's an extreme exception to the single catch or two that Reese typically produces.

WIDE RECEIVERS: Jacoby Ford is expected to miss this game as well because of his foot injury but Denarius Moore should be able to play since he was close to making it last week in the Bears matchup. Darrius Heyward-Bey started for Moore last week and ended with 42 yards on four catches. Chaz Schilens received more playing time and had a season best 59 yards on four catches while Louis Murphy played ahead of T.J. Houshmandzadeh and had a season best 53 yards on two catches. The Raiders have no lack of moderately talented wideouts but will welcome back at least Moore this week.

So far Palmer does not use Kevin Boss much so any passing scores are most likely to end up with a wideout and the Fins have given up 12 scores to the position this year along with eight receivers turning in around 90 yards or more in their game. This is still a risk since Moore's health status is uncertain and Palmer is mixing and matching whatever he has to use. I like Moore to score if he is healthy since the speedy guys have done the most damage to the Fins. The scores are mostly speculative though and not reliable.

TIGHT ENDS: No fantasy value. Carson Palmer has made minimal use of the tight ends and over the entire season the unit has accounted for only one touchdown.

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM QB RB WR TE PK DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points OAK 21 3 19 28 10 14
Preventing Fantasy Points MIA 20 3 17 23 19 15


Miami Dolphins
Homefield: Dolphins Stadium
Grass
  Opp Score   Opp Score
1 NE 24-38 10 WAS 20-9
2 HOU 13-23 11 BUF 35-8
3 @CLE 16-17 12 @DAL 19-20
4 @SD 16-26 13 OAK  
5 Bye - 14 PHI -
6 @NYJ 6-24 15 @BUF -
7 DEN 15-18 16 @NE -
8 @NYG 17-20 17 NYJ -
9 @KC 31-3      
Dolphins Report | Statistics | Roster
MIAMI vs OAK Rush Catch Pass
QB Matt Moore - - 240,2
RB Reggie Bush 60 30 -
RB Daniel Thomas 40 - -
TE Anthony Fasano - 30 -
WR Brandon Marshall - 80,1 -
WR Brian Hartline - 60 -
WR Davone Bess - 40,1 -
PK Dan Carpenter 2 FG 2 XP -

Pregame Notes: Now it gets interesting. The Dolphins lost seven games in a row and the count down to firing Tony Sparano was started. But then they won three games in a row and all by really big margins while the defense shut down the opponent and the offense came to life. Between the Chiefs, Redskins and Bills, the Fins outscored them 86 to 20. Then the close loss in Dallas still should be a confidence booster since they took them to the final play before succumbing. Now what happens? Can the Fins string together some wins and make the offseason full of hard choices or just revert to their not good enough mode and make the decisions easy. None of the final five games are going to be easy.

QUARTERBACK: Matt Moore had been either posting small stats in games with one or no touchdowns and marginal passing yards or he had two games with three touchdowns in each. In Dallas on Thanksgiving, he finally had a "in the middle" game with a solid 288 yards but only one touchdown. Back at home Moore has been better overall with only one game that had no score. His performance depends on the success of the rushing game as much as any quarterback.

The Raiders secondary have allowed two passing scores eight different times and average the same two scores per game. This is likely a better game for Moore again with the two touchdowns and what should be healthy yardage.

RUNNING BACKS: Reggie Bush is still enjoying a revival to his career and while he did not score in Dallas as he had in the three previous games this year, Bush still rushed for 61 yards and gained 35 yards on three catches. Bush is not winning anyone's league for them but he's contributing every week and is worthy of a fantasy start at least as a flex play or a RB2. For the last five games, he's turned in either decent yardage or a score if not both.

The same cannot be said for Daniel Thomas who has been held to fewer than 53 yards and no score since week three.

The Raiders have been weaker against the run but only against the big power backs like Adrian Peterson or Willis McGahee or Fred Jackson. Not like 201 pound Reggie Bush. He'll maintain value with receptions but should have another moderate yardage game and more likely no touchdown.

WIDE RECEIVERS : Brandon Marshall comes off one of his best games of the year when he gained 103 yards on five receptions and scored once in Dallas., That fives him four 100+ efforts and yet he has never had fewer than two weeks between big games. Of course big games have completely eluded the rest of the wideouts and Brian Hartline's 77 yards in Dallas was his best since week three. The offense has moderate yardage at best when passing and Marshall is the only one likely to cash in.

This is the soft spot in the secondary and Marshall should almost guarantee a score and solid yardage. The second score is likely to end up here but could be for either Hartline or Bess or even Marshall again potentially.

TIGHT ENDS: Anthony Fasano has scored in three different games and his every-other week lines him up as due this week but he has rarely had more than 30 yards and when he doesn't score, he does little to help a fantasy team.

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM QB RB WR TE PK DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points MIA 23 10 26 25 13 31
Preventing Fantasy Points OAK 29 27 20 18 10 24

WEEK 13
2011
PHI at SEA (thu) CIN at PIT GB at NYG OAK at MIA
ATL at HOU DAL at ARI IND at NE STL at SF
BAL at CLE DEN at MIN KC at CHI TEN at BUF
  CAR at TB DET at NO NYJ at WAS SD at JAC (mon)

a d v e r t i s e m e n t