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FANTASY FOOTBALL IN-SEASON FEATURES

Predictions & Projections
David Dorey  

Sortable Player Projections | Game Predictions Summary | Projections by Team

WEEK 13
2011
PHI at SEA (thu) CIN at PIT * GB at NYG * OAK at MIA
* ATL at HOU DAL at ARI * IND at NE * STL at SF
BAL at CLE * DEN at MIN KC at CHI TEN at BUF
* Updated * CAR at TB * DET at NO NYJ at WAS SD at JAC (mon)

Prediction: SD 20, JAC 13

The Chargers ride in on a six game losing streak that really defies explanation other than regardless of the score being high or low, the Chargers are just going to have a few less points at the end. The season is in a shambles and losing to the visiting Broncos is a back breaker. The Bolts are only 1-4 in road games. The Jaguars are no better at 3-8 and a 2-3 home record but they have the defense to keep the score low. With these two teams, almost anything could happen. Flip a coin. Imagine this - they made it the Monday night game. Wow. Time to go Christmas shopping.

San Diego Chargers
Homefield: Qualcomm Stadium
Grass
  Opp Score   Opp Score
1 MIN 24-17 10 OAK 17-24
2 @NE 21-35 11 @CHI 20-31
3 KC 20-17 12 DEN 13-16
4 MIA 26-16 13 @JAC -
5 @DEN 29-24 14 BUF -
6 Bye - 15 BAL -
7 @NYJ 21-27 16 @DET -
8 @KC 20-23 17 @OAK -
9 GB 38-45      
Chargers Report | Statistics | Roster
SAN DIEGO at JAC Rush Catch Pass
QB Philip Rivers - - 240,1
RB Ryan Mathews 50 20 -
RB Mike Tolbert 20,1 20 -
TE Antonio Gates - 60,1 -
WR Vincent Brown - 30 -
WR Malcolm Floyd - 50 -
WR Vincent Jackson - 50 -
PK Nick Novak 2 FG 2 XP -
Pregame Notes: The Chargers slide has been caused by a defense that ranks no better than average against all positions and a quarterback that has gone from superstar to turnover machine. With every loss, Philip Rivers assures the media that nothing is wrong and that it was just a bad game. Norv Turner echoes the sentiment but the season is already over even in the AFC West. Turner could be coaching his last games there and Rivers is trying to find a new way to say all is well.

QUARTERBACK: About the only person not saying that Philip Rivers is playing hurt is Rivers himself. He has 16 touchdowns on the season but 17 interceptions and four lost fumbles. Rivers has not been any better than the defenses allow him to be and goes against an above average secondary that has never allowed more than two touchdowns and eight of ten opponents were held to fewer than 200 passing yards.

Rivers the Bad will get one score and moderate yardage here. Rivers the Good could easily post two touchdowns and healthy yardage. Play it safe on Rivers.

RUNNING BACKS: Ryan Mathews comes off his best rushing effort of the year when he gained 137 yards on 22 carries against the Broncos though he had a season low five yards on one catch. Mathews has not scored since week three thanks to Mike Tolbert taking the short touchdowns. Mathews had been on a string of sub 40-yard rushing efforts but is healthy again and it showed last week.

The Jaguars at home have been very good against the run with no rusher gaining more than 65 yards there (and that was Arian Foster). The Chargers are going to split up carries anyway but there should be a running score that likely ends up with Tolbert.

WIDE RECEIVERS: The Chargers may get Malcolm Floyd back this week from his hip injury but about all he will do is make a muddled situation even worse. Vincent Jackson not only varies from 165 yards and two scores down to only one catch for 22 yards, but he does it on successive weeks. Jackson has four monster games and his other seven efforts have been game killers mostly under 40 yards. Vincent Brown has logged some decent games replacing Floyd but only has one score and last week led all receivers with just 50 yards on three catches.

What to expect in Jacksonville where only three wideouts have scored and just one had over 100 yards? Hard to say because of the wildly inconsistent nature of the Chargers. Anything above moderate yardage is hard to bank on and more often than not wrong.

TIGHT ENDS: Antonio Gates has been much lighter on yardage this year even when healthy and only has one effort that went over 75 yards. But he has scored in three of the last four games and the Jaguars biggest weakness on defense goes against this position. The Jags have allowed six touchdowns and two players exceeded 100 yards against them. Gates is a strong play this week.

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM QB RB WR TE PK DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points SD 10 4 17 10 11 29
Preventing Fantasy Points JAC 5 11 2 26 2 13


Jacksonville Jaguars
Homefield: J'ville Municipal Stadium
Grass
  Opp Score   Opp Score
1 TEN 16-14 10 @IND 17-3
2 @NYJ 3-32 11 @CLE 10-14
3 @CAR 10-16 12 HOU 13-20
4 NO 10-23 13 SD -
5 CIN 20-30 14 TB -
6 @PIT 13-17 15 @ATL -
7 BAL 9-7 16 @TEN -
8 @HOU 14-24 17 IND -
9 Bye -      
Jaguars Report | Statistics | Roster
JACKSONVILLE vs SD Rush Catch Pass
QB Blaine Gabbert - - 140,1
RB Maurice Jones-Drew 100,1 20 -
TE Marcedes Lewis - 30 -
WR Cecil Shorts - 20 -
WR Jason Hill - 40 -
WR Mike Thomas - 40 -
PK Josh Scobee 2 FG 1 XP -

Pregame Notes: The Jaguars are enigmatic given that their three wins came against the Colts, the Titans and Ravens. The defense has been stout this year and held almost all opponents to 20 points or less. But the offense has struggled to score even once in a game let alone twice. The Jaguars have only scored as many as 20 points once all season. The passing game ranks among the worst in the league and is not improving so the Jaguars remain little more than Maurice Jones-Drew and a great defense.

HC Jack Del Rio was fired on Tuesday. That won't make this game any better.

QUARTERBACK: It just never gets better. Blaine Gabbert was benched last week in the Houston loss but Luke McCown was no better and therein lies Gabbert's key. He may not be ready to start, but no one else on the team is any better. With only six touchdowns and two games that inched over 200 yards, this has been one of the worst passing offenses for the entire season. Gabbert has never passed for more than one score in a game and five of his last six efforts ended with fewer than 140 passing yards.

There is no need to match against the secondary when no one is worse than the Jags. Good shot for one score.

RUNNING BACKS: There is no debating - the sparkplug known as Maurice Jones-Drew is a man among men. He has to be. He is the only weapon of the Jaguars and constantly faces defenses dedicated to stopping him and yet he still turns in good to great yardage every week. He has scored five times this year and topped 100 total yards in eight of eleven games. All that is good with the Jaguars starts and ends with MJD.

The Chargers have been weaker against the run in recent weeks and five different runners gained at or over 100 rushing yards on them. He's the only safe start for the Jaguars anyway and a good play this week.

WIDE RECEIVERS: There is no reason to consider any Jaguar wideout for a fantasy start since it has been over a month since any of them gained more more than 50 yards in any game. Only five touchdowns have ever been caught by a wideout this year and most tight ends in the NFL produce more yardage than the Jags wideouts.

TIGHT ENDS: No fantasy value. Marcedes Lewis could have scored for the first time this year last week but flat out dropped the pass.

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM QB RB WR TE PK DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points JAC 32 19 32 30 24 26
Preventing Fantasy Points SD 18 15 15 15 21 29

WEEK 13
2011
PHI at SEA (thu) CIN at PIT GB at NYG OAK at MIA
ATL at HOU DAL at ARI IND at NE STL at SF
BAL at CLE DEN at MIN KC at CHI TEN at BUF
  CAR at TB DET at NO NYJ at WAS SD at JAC (mon)

a d v e r t i s e m e n t