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Predictions & Projections
David Dorey  

Sortable Player Projections | Game Predictions Summary | Projections by Team

WEEK 13
2011
PHI at SEA (thu) CIN at PIT * GB at NYG * OAK at MIA
* ATL at HOU DAL at ARI * IND at NE * STL at SF
BAL at CLE * DEN at MIN KC at CHI TEN at BUF
* Updated * CAR at TB * DET at NO NYJ at WAS SD at JAC (mon)

Prediction: TEN 20, BUF 13

Players to Watch: Scott Chandler

The win over the Buccaneers gives the Titans a theoretical chance at the postseason but they are only 2-3 on the road. The Bills are sort of in a free fall now with a four game losing streak but a 4-1 home record.

Tennessee Titans
Homefield: LP Field
Grass
  Opp Score   Opp Score
1 @JAC 14-16 10 @CAR 30-3
2 BAL 26-13 11 @ATL 17-23
3 DEN 17-14 12 TB 23-17
4 @CLE 31-13 13 @BUF -
5 @PIT 17-38 14 NO -
6 Bye - 15 @IND -
7 HOU 7-41 16 JAC -
8 IND 27-10 17 @HOU -
9 CIN 17-24      
Titans Report | Statistics | Roster
TENNESSEE at BUF Rush Catch Pass
QB Matt Hasselbeck - - 190,2
RB Chris Johnson 70 20 -
TE Jared Cook - 20 -
WR Lavelle Hawkins - 50 -
WR Nate Washington - 60 -
WR Damian Williams - 40,1 -
PK Rob Bironas 2 FG 2 XP -
Pregame Notes: The Titans win at home over the Bucs keeps them above .500 but that will be hard to maintain considering this week and the Saints, Jaguars and Texans coming up. Chris Johnson is back again (Part III) which helps if he can last longer than one game. The Bills seemed like a "lay down and die" team without Fred Jackson but last week they nearly beat the Jets. But that was inside the division and the Titans will be harder for them to prepare to play since you can never quite be sure which Titans will show up on any given Sunday.

QUARTERBACK: While Chris Johnson may incur major swings in production, not so for Matt Hasselbeck who has thrown seven touchdowns over the last seven games along with seven interceptions and seven sacks. Kind of freaky actually. Bottom line - no matter what, Hasselbeck is not going to win games for the Titans, he only tries to not lose them. He almost always scores - and just once - and still could be swapped out for Jake Locker at any time.

Harder to say this week than usual because the Bills are without Fred Jackson which could change field position issues dramatically - like last week when Mark Sanchez only passed for 160 yards but had four touchdowns. I'm giving Hasselbeck two scores but just one would be more reliable.

RUNNING BACKS: He did it again. In fact, Chris Johnson comes off one of the best games of his entire career with 190 yards on 23 carries against the Buccaneers. This followed his 13 yards on 12 runs against the Falcons. He has three games with over 100 rushing yards but they are always sandwiched by mediocre to poor efforts. He has only scored twice this season. And you cannot merely expect him to do well only against bad defenses because he was held to 34 yards on 14 runs by the Colts.

The Bills at home have been far better against the run but life without Jackson could mean field position problems and Ryan Fitzpatrick is just not as good as last week suggested. It is always going to be a risk using Johnson until he gains some consistency but he could have a decent game here against the new Bills of the past four weeks.

WIDE RECEIVERS: Not unlike everything else about the Titans, Nate Washington had nine catches for 115 yards and two scores in Atlanta but sandwiched that game with 3-40 and 1-12. Plus Locker was the one throwing the ball in the Falcons tilt. Damian Williams has scored in three of the last four games with marginal yardage in all but one. Lavelle Hawkins is playing a bigger role in recent games but still is not fantasy relevant.

The secondary is the Bills bigger weakness and not so much from allowing a lot of yards but from giving up touchdowns. Ten wideouts have already scored on them including two players with double scores. The yardage was never going to be that high here but at least one score should end up in this unit and a chance for two if the other does not end up with a tight end.

TIGHT ENDS: Jared Cook cannot be relied on for a fantasy start with only two scores on the year and three games above 35 yards but he does show up big on the rare occasions he is a factor. There is a chance of something this week but the risk far outweighs it.

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM QB RB WR TE PK DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points TEN 18 29 11 18 20 17
Preventing Fantasy Points BUF 27 28 21 25 11 5


Buffalo Bills
Homefield: Ralph Wilson Stadium
AstroTurf
  Opp Score   Opp Score
1 @KC 41-7 10 @DAL 7-44
2 OAK 38-35 11 @MIA 8-35
3 NE 34-31 12 @NYJ 24-28
4 @CIN 20-23 13 TEN -
5 PHI 31-24 14 @SD -
6 @NYG 24-27 15 MIA -
7 Bye - 16 DEN -
8 WAS 23-0 17 @NE -
9 NYJ 11-27      
Bills Report | Statistics | Roster
BUFFALO vs TEN Rush Catch Pass
QB Ryan Fitzpatrick - - 240,1
RB C.J. Spiller 50 20 -
TE Scott Chandler - 50,1 -
WR David Nelson - 40 -
WR Steve Johnson - 70 -
WR Brad Smith - 30 -
PK Dave Rayner 2 FG 1 XP -

Pregame Notes: The Bills were almost shockingly good last week against the Jets despite playing without Fred Jackson but that's more about the inter-divisional aspect of the game and the fact that the Jets likely felt they already had it won - and they still did. The Bills are still saddled with the same offense that never posted more than 11 points in the three previous games and now have no rushing offense. With four straight losses, everything points to the Jets game as one last hurrah before just accepting their fate again this year.

QUARTERBACK: Call it a fluke or a trap game or whatever you want, but Ryan Fitzpatrick passed for 264 yards and three touchdowns with no turnovers in New York against the Jets. It was his first three touchdown game since week two and really differed from the three previous games where he never passed for more than 209 yards or one score and at least two interceptions. Fitzpatrick had a nice blip last week but is still the same QB that passed for ten touchdowns and 11 interceptions over the last eight weeks.

The Titans secondary has been very good in road games where only one opponent passed for more than one touchdown thought twice they gave up 300+ yards. Expecting the Bills to return to their old self, anything more than one score and moderate yardage is hard to rely on.

RUNNING BACKS: The Bills actually did make C.J. Spiller into a primary back for the first time in his career. He ran 19 times for 55 yards and carried a 2.8 yard average in New York. Spiller has been horrible at running back for two years and even was converted into a wideout recently. He has one touchdown on the year and was never made for anything but minor complementary work to a real running back - even though he was a high first round flop pick.

But the Bills only gave Johnny White one carry and he gained two yards. Newly signed Tashard Choice ran twice and lost a net eight yards. There is no real reason to expect this group to improve just because they are at home this week. The Titans are nothing special against the run though they have allowed just five rushing scores. No reason to expect Spiller to be more than what he is.

WIDE RECEIVERS: Steve Johnson comes off a fascinating game where he mimicked Plaxico Burress shooting himself in the leg as an end zone dance and dropped a pass that could have been a game winning score. He was covered by Darrell Revis and yet still had eight catches for 75 yards and a score for his best effort since week three. Brad Smith finally scored this year with 77 yards on four catches but was going against his old team and has done nearly nothing in all other games for 2010.

Johnson is less likely to have a good game here and has been a nonfactor since week three. He worth some yardage but too hard to bite on him getting a touchdown when the Titans have only allowed six touchdowns to the position all season long.

TIGHT ENDS: After opening with four scores in this first three games, Scott Chandler scored in just one other matchup and had been held to far less yardage. But in the recent two weeks, he has accounted for 5-71 in Miami and 6-50 in New York against the Jets since the Bills are losing wide receivers and need the help. I like the chance for a a score this week against a defense that has give up four touchdowns over the last four road games to tight ends. He is still a risk of course, but this should be a more favorable setting for him.

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM QB RB WR TE PK DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points BUF 14 13 8 22 19 10
Preventing Fantasy Points TEN 11 22 4 30 13 6

WEEK 13
2011
PHI at SEA (thu) CIN at PIT GB at NYG OAK at MIA
ATL at HOU DAL at ARI IND at NE STL at SF
BAL at CLE DEN at MIN KC at CHI TEN at BUF
  CAR at TB DET at NO NYJ at WAS SD at JAC (mon)

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