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RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM QB RB WR TE PK DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points CAR 2 23 16 8 17 27
Preventing Fantasy Points ATL 17 5 20 8 16 10

FANTASY FOOTBALL IN-SEASON FEATURES

Predictions & Projections
David Dorey  

Sortable Player Projections | Game Predictions Summary | Projections by Team

WEEK 14
2011
CLE at PIT (thu) * HOU at CIN NE at WAS PHI at MIA
ATL at CAR IND at BAL NO at TEN SF at ARI
BUF at SD KC at NYJ * NYG at DAL TB at JAC
* Update * CHI at DEN * MIN at DET * OAK at GB * STL at SEA (mon)

Prediction: ATL 23, CAR 20

The 7-5 Falcons come off a painful loss to the Texans and are jeopardizing even a wild card bid without getting back on a winning streak. They take their 3-3 road record to Carolina where the Panthers are on a two game winning streak. This is a replay of week six when the Falcons won 31-17 in Atlanta.

Atlanta Falcons
Homefield: Georgia Dome
FieldTurf
  Opp Score   Opp Score
1 @CHI 12-30 10 NO 23-26
2 PHI 35-31 11 TEN 23-17
3 @TB 13-16 12 MIN 24-14
4 @SEA 30-28 13 @HOU 10-17
5 GB 14-25 14 @CAR -
6 CAR 31-17 15 JAC -
7 @DET 23-16 16 @NO -
8 Bye - 17 TB -
9 @IND 31-7 - - -
Falcons Report | Statistics | Roster
ATLANTA at CAR Rush Catch Pass
QB Matt Ryan - - 220,1
RB Michael Turner 90,1 - -
TE Tony Gonzalez - 60 -
WR Julio Jones - 70,1 -
WR Roddy White - 50 -
WR Harry Douglas - 30 -
PK Matt Bryant 3 FG 2 XP -
Pregame Notes: Losing to the Texans makes any dreams about the division vanish and the lack of offense in that road game is troublesome since two more away games remain including one in New Orleans. This week should be a win as well as the homestands against the Jaguars and Buccaneers but that would leave the Falcons 10-6 on the season and that may be just enough to get a wildcard. But they have to win out other than the Saints matchup.

QUARTERBACK: Matt Ryan only passed for 163 yards and one score in the previous matchup with the Panthers though he added a rare rushing score as well. That was the game where Michael Turner had all the fun and Ryan was never needed to do much. This week should be little different for Ryan who has not been that productive away from home other than against the Colts which no longer counts. Ryan always scores at least once in every game and the Panthers allow as much and rarely anything more. Figure on a lower game for Ryan because all that running equals fewer pass attempts. The last game with the Panthers only featured a season low 22 throws.

RUNNING BACKS: Back in week six, Michael Turner had his best game of the year when he rushed for 139 yards and two scores on 27 carries against the visiting Panthers. Those 27 runs were his highest in a game this year and could happen again as both teams will rely on the ground game more than the pass. Turner has been hampered a bit by a slow to heal groin pull and missed practice time to rest it. He also only managed 60 rush yards against the Vikings and 44 yards in Houston for the two most recent weeks.

Have to expect a decent showing here from Turner against one of the worst rushing defenses in the NFL but a repeat monster game is much less likely.

WIDE RECEIVERS: The Panthers have been generally good against the pass but mainly because they always allow opponents to run over them. In the previous meeting Julio Jones was out but Roddy White ended with just two catches for 21 yards and Harry Douglas gained 57 yards on his two receptions. The interesting part of Julio Jones is that he has three 100+ yard games and each came on the road. Jones missed two games earlier this year but has been really consistent with never fewer than 68 yards away from Atlanta. That would be high side in this game but it will bear watching. Away from home, secondaries seem to focus on White and limit him while Jones has a better showing. At home, Jones has only turned in ten catches for 125 yards over four games. Away, he has caught 24 passes for 441 yards and two touchdowns in four games. Pretty dramatic difference.

I like Jones tentatively in this game that will be mostly about running the ball.

TIGHT ENDS: Tony Gonzalez turned in his worst game of the year in week six against the Panthers with only 29 yards on three catches but he has been on a four game streak with 70+ yards. He is a must start in the world of tight ends but should see lesser stats this week than normal but will be needed for more than the three small catches last time.

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM QB RB WR TE PK DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points ATL 10 10 14 4 15 28
Preventing Fantasy Points CAR 16 32 11 17 29 22


Carolina Panthers
Homefield: Bank of America Stadium
Grass
  Opp Score   Opp Score
1 @ARI 21-28 10 TEN 3-30
2 GB 23-30 11 @DET 35-49
3 JAC 16-10 12 @IND 27-19
4 @CHI 29-34 13 @TB 38-19
5 NO 27-30 14 ATL -
6 @ATL 17-31 15 @HOU -
7 WAS 33-20 16 TB -
8 MIN 21-24 17 @NO -
9 Bye -      
Panthers Report | Statistics | Roster
CAROLINA vs ATL Rush Catch Pass
QB Cam Newton 50,1 - 230,1
RB DeAngelo Williams 50 10 -
RB Jonathan Stewart 60 30 -
TE Greg Olsen - 40 -
TE Jeremy Shockey - 30 -
WR Brandon LaFell - 30 -
WR Steve Smith - 70,1 -
WR Legedu Naanee - 20 -
PK Olindo Mare 2 FG 2 XP -

Pregame Notes: Two wins in a row are encouraging and both came in road games. Now back at home the Panthers are looking at a tough remaining schedule with the Falcons, Texans, Buccaneers and Saints remaining. The offense has been posting big points in the last three games with never fewer than 27 but the offense has been almost all Cam Newton. The running backs take a back seat and even Steve Smith has cooled off. That makes Newton shoulder a huge load each week but so far he is up to the task in recent games.

QUARTERBACK: Cam Newton has tied the record for rushing touchdowns for a quarterback with 13 but with four games remaining, he'll likely bury it. Newton scored once on a run in Atlanta and gained 47 rushing yards but only passed for 237 yards and no scores with three interceptions.

Newton is a must start each week but the Falcons present a better defense than the recent opponents had. At home he'll be better than in the road matchup but is less likely to score major points here thanks to a very good Falcons rushing defense.

RUNNING BACKS: The Panthers still split up the workload here and DeAngelo Williams has been marginal in all but a couple of games against soft opponents. He gained 44 yards on 12 runs in the last meeting with the Panthers while Jonathan Stewart gained 48 yards and one score on seven runs in that game. Using either runner is a risky proposition if you expect more than around 50 total yards. Stewart has been marginally better in most recent games but with Newton hawing up to three rushing touchdowns each week, the fantasy play here is pretty high risk and low reward.

WIDE RECEIVERS: Steve Smith only brought in five catches for 66 yards in Atlanta and after a torrid start to the year has been much quieter. Smith has only scored once in the last four games and gained no more than 68 yards in those efforts. But he is clearly the preferred receiver and far more likely to score than any other wideout. Brandon LaFell and Legedu Naanee rarely top 40 yards or so in any game.

The Falcons should be without CB Brent Grimes and that helps. Smith at home is a must start regardless.

TIGHT ENDS: Greg Olsen has been little used in the last month with no scores and no more than 45 yards in a game. That even better than what Jeremy Shockey did in the same time period. But in the first meeting with the Falcons, Olsen generated 42 yards on five receptions and Shockey had a season best 60 yards on four catches. Olsen is a very low end play against a Falcons defense that has only allowed three scores to the position this season.


WEEK 14
2011
CLE at PIT (thu) HOU at CIN NE at WAS PHI at MIA
ATL at CAR IND at BAL NO at TEN SF at ARI
BUF at SD KC at NYJ NYG at DAL TB at JAC
  CHI at DEN MIN at DET OAK at GB STL at SEA (mon)

a d v e r t i s e m e n t