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FANTASY FOOTBALL IN-SEASON FEATURES

Predictions & Projections
David Dorey  

Sortable Player Projections | Game Predictions Summary | Projections by Team

WEEK 14
2011
CLE at PIT (thu) * HOU at CIN NE at WAS PHI at MIA
ATL at CAR IND at BAL NO at TEN SF at ARI
BUF at SD KC at NYJ * NYG at DAL TB at JAC
* Update * CHI at DEN * MIN at DET * OAK at GB * STL at SEA (mon)

Prediction: BUF 14, SD 31

The Bills are 5-7 and on a five game losing streak. They drag their 1-5 record to San Diego where the champagne is flowing after they just ended their own six game losing streak on Monday night. This is bound to be ugly but still favors the Chargers. The difference between these two teams is that the Chargers are like a guy who jumped off a sinking ship and finally reached the surface where he can breath. The Bills are the other guy that got his jacket stuck on the railing and is just about out of bubbles.

Buffalo Bills
Homefield: Ralph Wilson Stadium
AstroTurf
  Opp Score   Opp Score
1 @KC 41-7 10 @DAL 7-44
2 OAK 38-35 11 @MIA 8-35
3 NE 34-31 12 @NYJ 24-28
4 @CIN 20-23 13 TEN 17-23
5 PHI 31-24 14 @SD -
6 @NYG 24-27 15 MIA -
7 Bye - 16 DEN -
8 WAS 23-0 17 @NE -
9 NYJ 11-27      
Bills Report | Statistics | Roster
BUFFALO at SD Rush Catch Pass
QB Ryan Fitzpatrick - - 190,2
RB C.J. Spiller 60 10 -
WR David Nelson - 40,1 -
WR Steve Johnson - 70,1 -
PK Dave Rayner FG 2 XP -
Pregame Notes: The Bills shut out the Redskins in week eight and apparently that was the expiration date on their magical season because it has been nothing but downhill since. The final four games feature two road games and hosting the Broncos and Dolphins who have swapped places with the Bills in almost every way. With Fred Jackson gone and the early season passing stats long cooled, the season is over and mainly serves to help us win our fantasy leagues.

QUARTERBACK: Ryan Fitzpatrick had a freakish good game against the Jets in week 12 but that was an interdivisional game where results always are different. Aside from that one effort, Fitzpatrick has only thrown for three touchdowns over the last four games and been worse on the road. Notable too is that the lack of a rushing game with Jackson gone means tougher times for Fitzpatrick.

The Chargers have allowed plenty of yards and scores at home but has faced some great quarterbacks. Fitzpatrick does not qualify so expect one passing score and moderate yardage. There is a chance for two scores but only if there is late trash time.

RUNNING BACKS: C.J. Spiller was a pleasant surprise when he rushed for 83 yards on 14 carries against the Titans and even scored once when he recovered his own fumble in the endzone. Spiller only managed to gain 55 yards on 19 runs in the most recent road game in New York. Tashard Choice had five carries for 20 yards but Spiller remains the primary back here. But the Chargers have only allowed two runners to score in San Diego and been far better against the run. Look for a more moderate showing by Spiller and no touchdown this time.

WIDE RECEIVERS: While so much has taken a turn for the worse for the Bills, at least Steve Johnson has been better in recent weeks and scored in both of the last two games with around 60 yards in each. Johnson has six touchdowns on the year and is marginally more productive than David Nelson who has five scores but never more than around 50 yards in the last two months.

Any touchdown pass almost has to end up with a wideout which means mostly Johnson and then Nelson. The yardage has always been marginal though and both are risky picks.

TIGHT ENDS: The Bills still use Scott Chandler for up to five or six catches in a game but he has not scored since week six and the Chargers have been tough on the position in San Diego where only two touchdowns were allowed and never more than 44 receiving yards. Chandler rolled his ankle last week and may not play. I am ruling him out

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM QB RB WR TE PK DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points BUF 14 11 8 22 20 17
Preventing Fantasy Points SD 18 16 15 14 22 31


San Diego Chargers
Homefield: Qualcomm Stadium
Grass
  Opp Score   Opp Score
1 MIN 24-17 10 OAK 17-24
2 @NE 21-35 11 @CHI 20-31
3 KC 20-17 12 DEN 13-16
4 MIA 26-16 13 @JAC 38-14
5 @DEN 29-24 14 BUF -
6 Bye - 15 BAL -
7 @NYJ 21-27 16 @DET -
8 @KC 20-23 17 @OAK -
9 GB 38-45      
Chargers Report | Statistics | Roster
SAN DIEGO vs BUF Rush Catch Pass
QB Philip Rivers - - 260,3
RB Ryan Mathews 100 30 -
RB Mike Tolbert 30,1 - -
TE Antonio Gates - 60,1 -
WR Vincent Brown - 20 -
WR Malcolm Floyd - 50,1 -
WR Vincent Jackson - 80,1 -
PK Nick Novak 1 FG 4 XP -

Pregame Notes: Big win in Jacksonville has the Chargers thinking their 5-7 record is still in contention and there is a final road game to Oakland for the season finale but after this game they host the Ravens, then travel to Detroit and finish in Oakland. Even if the Chargers could run the table it is probably not good enough for post season play and it would be a shock if they could win four in a row.

QUARTERBACK: Philip Rivers struggled most of the year to post expected stats but over the last month he has been passing for around 300 yards and a couple of scores in four of the last five weeks. He comes off a 294-yard, three touchdown effort in Jacksonville and returns home to face the Bills who have allowed no fewer than three passing scores to each of the last three road opponents. The rushing game works as well and serves to keep the passing yardage a bit lower.

Rivers is a good start this week and should manage no worse than moderate yardage and two or three scores. The Bills are just the weak opponent that the Bolts need to show up in San Diego.

RUNNING BACKS: Ryan Mathews comes off a 13 carry, 112 yard effort with one score in Jacksonville and he rolled up 137 yards on the Broncos in week 12. Mathews is healthy and running well enough that he even scored his own touchdown on Monday while Mike Tolbert also punched in a score. This should be a very nice game for Mathews against a defense that ranks 29th against the position. Consider him a must start for yardage alone and while Tolbert could score another touchdown, he is too inconsistent to rely on and has minimal yardage otherwise.

WIDE RECEIVERS: Malcolm Floyd finally is healthy and had four catches for 108 yards and a score in his first game back. Vincent Jackson rewarded his finger-crossing owners when he turned four receptions into 72 yards and one touchdown. This is the first time that both Jackson and Floyd have been together healthy since week eight. Vincent Brown falls back to a slot role but even he had a touchdown on his only catch last Monday.

The Bills are visiting and the Chargers are looking better. Time to start both Jackson and Floyd who have very good chances for a score and decent yardage. Brown becomes too risky with Floyd back.

TIGHT ENDS: Even with the wideouts all healthy again, Antonio Gates still gained 70 yards on six catches in Jacksonville and has been good for at least 50 yards or so every week. Have to like the chance for a score here when the Bills allowed a tight end to score in the last two road games.

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM QB RB WR TE PK DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points SD 9 4 19 12 9 29
Preventing Fantasy Points BUF 23 29 18 24 14 7

WEEK 14
2011
CLE at PIT (thu) HOU at CIN NE at WAS PHI at MIA
ATL at CAR IND at BAL NO at TEN SF at ARI
BUF at SD KC at NYJ NYG at DAL TB at JAC
  CHI at DEN MIN at DET OAK at GB STL at SEA (mon)

a d v e r t i s e m e n t