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Predictions & Projections
David Dorey  

Sortable Player Projections | Game Predictions Summary | Projections by Team

WEEK 14
2011
CLE at PIT (thu) * HOU at CIN NE at WAS PHI at MIA
ATL at CAR IND at BAL NO at TEN SF at ARI
BUF at SD KC at NYJ * NYG at DAL TB at JAC
* Update * CHI at DEN * MIN at DET * OAK at GB * STL at SEA (mon)

Prediction: OAK 14, GB 34

Players to Watch: Brandon Saine

Update: Both Jacoby Ford and Denarius Moore will miss this great opportunity for fantasy points. Darren McFadden remains out and may not even be in the country for all we know.

The 7-5 Raiders are tied with Denver for the AFC West lead thanks to losing in Miami and now are 4-2 on the road to visit the perfect Packers. The Packers cut it close last week but back at home have won all their games by nine points or more. And usually a lot more.

Oakland Raiders
Homefield: McAfee Coliseum
Grass
  Opp Score   Opp Score
1 @DEN 23-20 10 @SD 24-17
2 @BUF 35-38 11 @MIN 27-21
3 NYJ 34-24 12 CHI 25-20
4 NE 19-31 13 @MIA 14-34
5 @HOU 25-20 14 @GB -
6 CLE 24-17 15 DET -
7 KC 0-28 16 @KC -
8 Bye - 17 SD -
9 DEN 24-38      
Raiders Report | Statistics | Roster
OAKLAND at GB Rush Catch Pass
QB Carson Palmer - - 280,2
RB Michael Bush 70 30 -
WR Louis Murphy - 40 -
WR Jacoby Ford - 60 -
WR Denarius Moore - 50,1 -
WR Chaz Schilens - 70 -
WR T.J. Houshmandzadeh - 30,1 -
WR Darrius Heyward-Bey - 80,1 -
PK Sebastian Janikowski FG 2 XP -
Pregame Notes: The Raiders draw the short straw in this matchup but the remaining three games - DET, @KC and SD mean that the Raiders have their own destiny in their own hands and there is always a chance that someday, somehow, Darren McFadden may be healthy again and playing. The Raiders also have quite the gaggle of old and newly injured wide receivers so practices this week have to unwind to see who is going to start against the Packers points machine. The Packers win all their games and yet the opposing wideouts are all happy when they go home.

QUARTERBACK: Carson Palmer is still learning the offense but he has passed for eight touchdowns in five games and gained 300 or so yards in three of those. He has been very good in yardage and now faces the #31 defense against quarterbacks in a game certain to demand a lot of passing. Expect higher yardage and two scores. Three is possible but Palmer is still trying to get back up to speed. This could be a very big game if the right wide receivers return from injury.

RUNNING BACKS: Darren McFadden is still out with a foot injury and Michael Bush will take his sixth start trying to make amends for last week when he was held to only 18 yards on ten runs in Miami. Bush had been on a very nice streak of games with over 100 total yards and a touchdown in each. Marcel Reese chips in as a receiver but Bush has been mostly alone as the rusher and carried the ball 103 times over a four game period until the Miami fiasco.

There is a chance that McFadden may be back in a week or two but until then, Bush has been as good as you could ever hope for as an insurance for a first round draft pick. The Packers are only average against the run but control the scoreboard and forced all but one opponent from getting more than 19 rushing attempts for their primary runner. Bush can do well here if they will use him as a receiver but he's likely to get just moderate rushing yards and a touchdown is very hard to rely on.

WIDE RECEIVERS: Even though this is the best matchup of the year, this week is hard to gauge because of all the injuries. Denarius Moore is out with an sprained ankle but may return and Chaz Schilens injured his foot in the Miami game but is expected to play this week. Jacoby Ford has an outside chance of returning from his foot injury from back in week nine. This mishmash of players is hard enough to project when they are healthy. I will assume that all can play and adjust later in the week as needed.

There will be some nice fantasy points come out of this unit - there always are in Green Bay. I'll temper my speculation with knowing that practice reports could change it up markedly. assuming all can play including T.J. Houshmandzadeh,the yardage and scores are mostly speculation in this case.

TIGHT ENDS: No fantasy value.

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM QB RB WR TE PK DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points OAK 16 3 15 27 12 18
Preventing Fantasy Points GB 31 14 31 32 8 2


Green Bay Packers
Homefield: Lambeau Field
Grass
  Opp Score   Opp Score
1 NO 42-34 10 MIN 45-7
2 @CAR 30-23 11 TB 35-26
3 @CHI 27-17 12 @DET 27-15
4 DEN 49-23 13 @NYG 38-35
5 @ATL 25-14 14 OAK -
6 STL 24-3 15 @KC -
7 @MIN 33-27 16 CHI -
8 Bye - 17 DET -
9 @SD 45-38      
Packers Report | Statistics | Roster
GREEN BAY vs OAK Rush Catch Pass
QB Aaron Rodgers - - 340,3
RB Ryan Grant 30 10 -
RB Brandon Saine 30,1 30 -
TE Jermichael Finley - 30 -
WR Greg Jennings - 70,1 -
WR Jordy Nelson - 100,2 -
WR Donald Driver - 20 -
WR James Jones - 40 -
PK Mason Crosby 2 FG 4 XP -

Pregame Notes: It just keeps rolling along. The Packers are moving in on the Patriots record for most consecutive wins that stands at 21 but the Packers are at 18 and could then break it with the final win against the visiting Lions. The Packers have not only made themselves everyone's most desirous victory for their own hometown., they are looking as unstoppable as any team ever has.

QUARTERBACK: No need matching stats to a defense when Aaron Rodgers has passed for 37 touchdowns this year along with 3844 yards. He is at home so give him 300 yards, three touchdowns and anything he wants from the snack bar including the Super Nachos for $15. Rodgers has not passed for fewer than two scores in any game. 37 Touchdowns? How about just FIVE interceptions?

RUNNING BACKS: James Starks rolled his ankle and may not play though the injury is considered to be nothing long term and really a re-aggravation of a week 11 sprain. In his place will be Ryan Grant and the undrafted rookie Brandon Saine who filled in last week for six carries for 16 yards and four catches for 29 yards. Saine becomes of great interest now because he touches a football while wearing a yellow helmet with a big "G" on it. That is about all you need to know.

Saine will likely take third down duties and catch passes but could play a slightly bigger role given that Grant has been consistently under performing and his only real worth has been as a blocker. Starks will be back but watch Saine just to see if anything develops. Packer running backs are never born, they are discovered on the roster late in the season.

The Raiders are plenty soft against the run but the Packers always prefer to throw anyway. I'll credit one rushing score to Saine only because it could go anywhere and I hate adding John Kuhn in when he has one touch per game. The score could happen in any number of ways.

WIDE RECEIVERS: You do not project stats for Packer wideouts, you just fill in the check boxes. Jordy Nelson at home - big check yards and scores. Greg Jennings at home - check for less yardage and probably one score. James Jones at home - probably just one catch again. Donald Driver - check for minor yardage and small chance for a score. Bottom line - Nelson and Jennings in every game must be started. The rest are a risk for a low game.

TIGHT ENDS: The oddity about Jermichael Finley is that he has six touchdowns and not one in a home game. In fact most of his worst games came in Green Bay - just do not need him at home.

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM QB RB WR TE PK DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points GB 1 27 1 10 5 3
Preventing Fantasy Points OAK 27 27 19 18 11 26

WEEK 14
2011
CLE at PIT (thu) HOU at CIN NE at WAS PHI at MIA
ATL at CAR IND at BAL NO at TEN SF at ARI
BUF at SD KC at NYJ NYG at DAL TB at JAC
  CHI at DEN MIN at DET OAK at GB STL at SEA (mon)

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