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Predictions & Projections
David Dorey  

Sortable Player Projections | Game Predictions Summary | Projections by Team

WEEK 14
2011
CLE at PIT (thu) * HOU at CIN NE at WAS PHI at MIA
ATL at CAR IND at BAL NO at TEN SF at ARI
BUF at SD KC at NYJ * NYG at DAL TB at JAC
* Update * CHI at DEN * MIN at DET * OAK at GB * STL at SEA (mon)

Prediction: PHI 17, MIA 27

Update: Michael Vick had full practices all week and is good to go. Jeremy Maclin was limited in practices until Friday but then had a full day on Friday and is expected to play with no limitation from his hamstring.

Update #2: Back up the bus - Maclin had a setback to his hamstring on Saturday and is now a game time decision. I am lowering his stats on the risk that he will not play or will be limited.

The loss in Seattle dropped the Eagles to 4-8 and no amount of math is going to make them a contender this year. They take their 3-3 road record to Miami where the Dolphins are also 4-8 but have engineered a dramatic turnaround winning four of their last five and barley losing to the Cowboys. The Fins are 3-3 at home now and winning all the close games they kept losing earlier this year.

Philadelphia Eagles
Homefield: Lincoln Financial Field
Turf
  Opp Score   Opp Score
1 @STL 31-13 10 ARI 17-21
2 @ATL 31-35 11 @NYG 17-10
3 NYG 16-29 12 NE 20-38
4 SF 23-24 13 @SEA 14-31
5 @BUF 24-31 14 @MIA -
6 @WAS 20-13 15 NYJ -
7 Bye - 16 @DAL -
8 DAL 34-7 17 WAS -
9 CHI 24-30      
Eagles Report | Statistics | Roster
PHILADELPHIA at MIA Rush Catch Pass
QB Michael Vick 30 - 240,2
RB LeSean McCoy 60 30 -
TE Brent Celek - 50 -
WR DeSean Jackson - 40 -
WR Riley Cooper - 50,1 -
WR Jason Avant - 30 -
WR Jeremy Maclin - 40 -
PK Alex Henery 1 FG 2 XP -
Pregame Notes: The return of Michael Vick may help this week but the Eagles smack of a team in the final stages before something big happens. And not like "get a stripper for your birthday" kind of big but like "well, it has been fun, gents" kind of big. Just when the win over the Giants seemed to indicate that maybe the season was salvageable, Vick was hurt again the the Eagles were plowed over by the Patriots and Seahawks. There is dissension, unhappiness and carping to the media. It's like a precursor to the presidential elections next year.

QUARTERBACK: Michael Vick is expected back after missing two games with two broken ribs but he's not 100% healthy yet. Long as he has not setbacks this week he'll suit up but that should limit him as a runner and force him to remain more in the pocket.

Vick on the road has been good for decent yardage and usually two scores but this Eagles team is starting to have the wheels wobble and is not playing with consistency. The Fins are weaker against the pass than the run by far so Vick should end up with decent stats in this game - just with fewer rushing yards than usual.

RUNNING BACKS: LeSean McCoy should have bigger shoulders so his jersey could read his real name ' "All That is Good and Noble In Philly". While the rest of the team struggles and stumbles, McCoy has been an absolute rock and a top back in the NFL. He has scored in all but one game and normally totals over 100 yards thanks to receiving yards. He is a must start and a remarkable player that brings it in every single game.

All that puffery aside, McCoy is facing the #2 defense against running backs that has allowed only one touchdown to the position since the season opener and that was nine weeks ago on the road. If McCoy can approach his normal stats in this game the Eagles should just automatically make him the team MVP now. Probably should regardless actually.

WIDE RECEIVERS: This started out as a strength of the team. Now it is like the ghost of Terrell Owens has inhabited DeSean Jackson and yet only with the sullen mouthy part, not the actual production. Jackson has now scored since week five and is becoming a bigger black mark and cancer with every passing week. He went off on the reporters about his attitude (which actually confirms the attitude thing, DJ). Jeremy Maclin may return this week though he did not practice early in the week. I'll include him for now and adjust later as needed. Jason Avant had a freak big game against the Pats but otherwise has been little more than a miscast tight end. What will be interesting is to see what happens to Riley Cooper who has three straight games over 70 yards and one score. Maclin should push him back down the depth chart but he has been the only consistently productive receiver recently.

Whatever progress the offense makes will mostly be here and even then the Dolphins have been good against visitors outside of the Patriots. Vick is back, Jackson is turning into a headcase, Maclin is iffy and Cooper may be the odd man out despite being the best man when he is in. Makes this all a risky start for any though at least one wideout should leave with decent stats and a touchdown.

TIGHT ENDS: Brent Celek remains a part of the passing equation each week but has only two scores on the year and none in six games. He's worth moderate yardage each week and nothing more.

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM QB RB WR TE PK DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points PHI 7 6 9 21 18 14
Preventing Fantasy Points MIA 22 2 21 20 15 11


Miami Dolphins
Homefield: Dolphins Stadium
Grass
  Opp Score   Opp Score
1 NE 24-38 10 WAS 20-9
2 HOU 13-23 11 BUF 35-8
3 @CLE 16-17 12 @DAL 19-20
4 @SD 16-26 13 OAK 34-14
5 Bye - 14 PHI -
6 @NYJ 6-24 15 @BUF -
7 DEN 15-18 16 @NE -
8 @NYG 17-20 17 NYJ -
9 @KC 31-3      
Dolphins Report | Statistics | Roster
MIAMI vs PHI Rush Catch Pass
QB Matt Moore 20,1 - 170,1
RB Reggie Bush 80,1 30 -
RB Daniel Thomas 60 - -
TE Anthony Fasano - 30 -
WR Brandon Marshall - 60 -
WR Brian Hartline - 20 -
WR Davone Bess - 30,1 -
PK Dan Carpenter 2 FG 3 XP -

Pregame Notes: The Fins are presenting a tough case to the ownership. A month ago it was a foregone conclusion that it was time to fire 'em all and start over. Now that they are 4-1 and playing really well - what to do? The defense has been dominating and the offense has learned what it can and can't do and gets the job done. The final stretch of games will likely determine what happens since the final three are a trip through the division with BUF and NE coming in road games.

QUARTERBACK: Matt Moore has been inconsistent with two games of three touchdowns and yet three with none. But Moore has scored in all but one home game and even scored twice as a runner. Moore is mostly just being as good as he need to be and not making many mistakes in the process.

The Eagles are nothing special in the secondary and Nnamdi Asomugha is coming off a concussion with a sore knee and may not be a factor at all. The Eagles are weaker against the run so expect the Fins to spend more time rushing the ball.

RUNNING BACKS: Daniel Thomas comes off his best effort since week three when he gained 73 yards on 13 runs in the Raiders win but he has been more likely to remain around 50 yards per game and almost never catches a pass. He has just one reception over the last five games.

Reggie Bush has been the pleasant surprise for the last six weeks that he has just been as good as he has at any time in his career. He has scored in four of the last five games including all three home venues. He's been kicking out yardage as both a receiver and a runner and now faces one of the weakest defenses against the run. The Eagles have already allowed 12 scores to running backs and seven runners had 90 yards or more against them. Bush is on a streak and so are the Eagles.

WIDE RECEIVERS: The stats here have been better though only Brandon Marshall merits a fantasy start. Marshall has been good for around 60 to 100 yards per week other than the one catch game against the Bills. But Marshall has his big games on the road when the Fins need more than just rushing and defense to wins games. Davone Bess never has much yardage but scored in both of the recent home games and yet not more than 30 yards in either. The trend here says Bess catches the score but Marshall and his yardage is the only reasonable fantasy expectation.

TIGHT ENDS: Marginal fantasy value here though on occasion Anthony Fasano will score or have a freak 60 yard game but nothing nearly consistent enough for fantasy starts.

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM QB RB WR TE PK DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points MIA 22 9 25 23 11 30
Preventing Fantasy Points PHI 21 25 23 12 2 24

WEEK 14
2011
CLE at PIT (thu) HOU at CIN NE at WAS PHI at MIA
ATL at CAR IND at BAL NO at TEN SF at ARI
BUF at SD KC at NYJ NYG at DAL TB at JAC
  CHI at DEN MIN at DET OAK at GB STL at SEA (mon)

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