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FANTASY FOOTBALL IN-SEASON FEATURES

Predictions & Projections
David Dorey  

Sortable Player Projections | Game Predictions Summary | Projections by Team

WEEK 14
2011
CLE at PIT (thu) * HOU at CIN NE at WAS PHI at MIA
ATL at CAR IND at BAL NO at TEN SF at ARI
BUF at SD KC at NYJ * NYG at DAL TB at JAC
* Update * CHI at DEN * MIN at DET * OAK at GB * STL at SEA (mon)

Prediction: TB 13, JAC 17

The Buccaneers are in a six game losing tailspin and are only 1-4 on the road. The Jaguars are just 3-9 and and 2-4 at home but only have a three game losing skid. The best aspect here is that someone has to win. Whatever happens here is probably not going to include a lot of points.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Homefield: Raymond James Stadium
Grass
  Opp Score   Opp Score
1 DET 20-27 10 HOU 9-37
2 @MIN 24-20 11 @GB 26-35
3 ATL 16-13 12 @TEN 17-23
4 IND 24-17 13 CAR 19-38
5 @SF 3-48 14 @JAC -
6 NO 26-20 15 DAL -
7 CHI 18-24 16 @CAR -
8 Bye - 17 @ATL -
9 @NO 16-27      
Buccaneers Report | Statistics | Roster
TAMPA BAY at JAC Rush Catch Pass
QB Josh Freeman - - 240,1
RB LeGarrette Blount 70 10 -
TE Kellen Winslow Jr. - 70,1 -
WR Preston Parker - 40 -
WR Mike Williams - 60 -
WR Dezmon Briscoe - 20 -
WR Arrelious Benn - 30 -
PK Conner Barth 2 FG 1 XP -
Pregame Notes: The Buccaneers are getting more dysfunctional as the season winds down. Shut down corner Aqib Talib has a hamstring injury and DL Brian Price was literally told to go home during the Carolina game by HC Raheem Morris who admitted the move in the post game presser with a "F-yeah". LeGarrette Blount threw Josh Johnson under the bus when the rushing game faltered last week and reportedly Blount was part of a group that severely beat a man who was too scared to press charges. Oh yeah, and the offense is worse and the defense gives up more points.

QUARTERBACK: Josh Freeman missed last week with a bad shoulder but is optimistic that he can play in this game. That will be determined in practices but I will assume he plays with only minor limitation if any and update as warranted. Freeman has been good for a score or two in almost every game but has never been better than what the opposing defenses allow all teams.

This week the Jaguars present one of the better secondaries in the league though Philip Rivers just turned in a big game there. In no way do Freeman and Rivers get compared though. Expect one passing score that could end up as two but moderate yardage.

RUNNING BACKS: LeGarrette Blount was on a nice roll with two 100 yard games on the road to Green Bay and Tennessee but then flopped at home against the Panthers with only 19 yards on 11 runs. The Jaguars at home have never allowed more than 65 rushing yards (Arian Foster) until last week when Ryan Mathews and the Chargers finally had their offense all working. Expect the Jags to bounce back this week and for Blount to end with just decent rushing yards and likely no score. Blount has only reached the endzone in three games and all were against the softest defenses.

WIDE RECEIVERS: There has been little progress in the offense this year and Mike Williams went from a star in 2010 to a dud but in the last three games, he has finally shown up with efforts of 7-83, 6-84 and 5-93 with two touchdowns scored. That was literally out of the blue considering his anemic stats prior this season. But he remains the only reasonable fantasy play this week and even then the Jags are outstanding against the position and only allowed six wideouts to score on them for the entire year and none have broken 100 yards since the season opener. Going against the #2 defense for the position makes even WIlliams a less attractive play this week.

TIGHT ENDS: The Jaguars are very weak against tight ends and allowed six touchdowns to the position and a couple of 100 yard games as well. Kellen Winslow Jr. has only scored twice this year but there are hardly any receivers on this team that can do any better. This is the weakness of the Jaguars by far so expect a decent showing by Winslow this week.

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM QB RB WR TE PK DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points TB 15 30 17 20 14 22
Preventing Fantasy Points JAC 6 9 2 28 4 13


Jacksonville Jaguars
Homefield: J'ville Municipal Stadium
Grass
  Opp Score   Opp Score
1 TEN 16-14 10 @IND 17-3
2 @NYJ 3-32 11 @CLE 10-14
3 @CAR 10-16 12 HOU 13-20
4 NO 10-23 13 SD 14-38
5 CIN 20-30 14 TB -
6 @PIT 13-17 15 @ATL -
7 BAL 9-7 16 @TEN -
8 @HOU 14-24 17 IND -
9 Bye -      
Jaguars Report | Statistics | Roster
JACKSONVILLE vs TB Rush Catch Pass
QB Blaine Gabbert - - 150,1
RB Maurice Jones-Drew 120,1 30,1 -
WR Cecil Shorts - 20 -
WR Jarett Dillard - 30 -
WR Mike Thomas - 40 -
PK Josh Scobee 1 FG 2 XP -

Pregame Notes: For a very forgettable season, this is one of two final chances to end on a high note and never have the Jaguars been so happy to see the Colts visiting in week 17. The offense has been lethargic all year and posted over 17 points only once. The defense has actually been very good but is so overshadowed by the offensive ineptness that it does not get the props it deserves. This is another team that ends with a whimper on a season that never went anywhere. To say that Maurice Jones-Drew is the MVP of this team is not only true, but may really be the Only Valuable Player.

QUARTERBACK: Blaine Gabbert is winding down his horrific rookie season where he has only thrown six touchdowns against six interceptions and only twice managed more than 190 passing yards. This is the worst spot to look for fantasy points and Gabbert has only passed for four scores over the last six weeks but enjoyed a two score game on Monday night against the Chargers.

The Buccaneers have always given up a passing touchdown but Gabbert jogs in as #32. This is maybe the final chance for a passing score so I like Gabbert's matchup but he is in no way worthy of fantasy consideration.

RUNNING BACKS: For Maurice Jones-Drew to lead the NFL in rushing yards is a testament to his talent and heart and determination. There has been nothing happening on the offense to concern the defenses and yet MJD has been churning out the 100 total yard games almost every week and topped 100 rush yards three times. He has five touchdowns on the season.

The incoming Buccaneers sport a defense that ranks #31 against the position and that has allowed 11 touchdowns to running backs over the last six weeks. This is as good as it will get for MJD who is a must start anyway.

WIDE RECEIVERS: Here lies the #32 wide receiver unit in the NFL and, true, it is partly a function of the quarterback play but these guys have done little to help out other than Jason Hill who has scored three times this year but was released last week. There is no fantasy value here and what little trickles here is split into four pieces.

TIGHT ENDS: No fantasy value.

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM QB RB WR TE PK DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points JAC 32 21 32 29 25 26
Preventing Fantasy Points TB 26 31 22 22 25 16

WEEK 14
2011
CLE at PIT (thu) HOU at CIN NE at WAS PHI at MIA
ATL at CAR IND at BAL NO at TEN SF at ARI
BUF at SD KC at NYJ NYG at DAL TB at JAC
  CHI at DEN MIN at DET OAK at GB STL at SEA (mon)

a d v e r t i s e m e n t