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FANTASY FOOTBALL IN-SEASON FEATURES

Predictions & Projections
David Dorey  

Sortable Player Projections | Game Predictions Summary | Projections by Team

WEEK 15
2011
JAC at ATL (thu) * CIN at STL * MIA at BUF SEA at CHI
DAL at TB (sat) * CLE at ARI NE at DEN * TEN at IND
BAL at SD * DET at OAK * NO at MIN WAS at NYG
* UPDATED CAR at HOU GB at KC * NYJ at PHI * PIT at SF (mon)

Prediction: GB 27, KC 17

Update: James Starks still insists that he will play and has not been ruled out. Consider both Ryan Grant and James Starks as very risky starts this week.

The Packers are still perfect and the Chiefs are 5-8 with a 2-4 home record. Even Vegas says the Packers remain perfect by two touchdowns.

Green Bay Packers
Homefield: Lambeau Field
Grass
  Opp Score   Opp Score
1 NO 42-34 10 MIN 45-7
2 @CAR 30-23 11 TB 35-26
3 @CHI 27-17 12 @DET 27-15
4 DEN 49-23 13 @NYG 38-35
5 @ATL 25-14 14 OAK 46-16
6 STL 24-3 15 @KC -
7 @MIN 33-27 16 CHI -
8 Bye - 17 DET -
9 @SD 45-38      
Packers Report | Statistics | Roster
GREEN BAY at KC Rush Catch Pass
QB Aaron Rodgers - - 300,3
RB Ryan Grant 20 10 -
RB James Starks 40 20 -
TE Jermichael Finley - 60,1 -
WR Jordy Nelson - 90,1 -
WR Donald Driver - 40 -
WR James Jones - 70,1 -
PK Mason Crosby 2 FG 3 XP -
Pregame Notes: After a season of winning and never losing players, now James Starks has missed time and the sight of Greg Jennings writhing on the ground was very unwelcomed. It appears the Packers dodged a bullet but it may underscore a fantasy problem - when do the Packers start yanking players from the game to keep them healthy? Do they bother with the perfect season? Or do screw every fantasy owner who ends up in a championship game scouring the waiver wire for replacements?

QUARTERBACK: No need to think - Aaron Rodgers is having a magic season and already passed for 39 touchdowns. He's a lock for a big game and the only question is if he alone wins your league for you of if you have to count your other players.

300 yards and three scores is not a guarantee, but it appears to be his birthright.

RUNNING BACKS: James Starks may return from his ankle injury this week depending on how much he can practice. Ryan Grant will take his place again if needed and against the Raiders, Grant rekindled yesteryear when he turned ten runs into 85 yards and two touchdowns. That was a freakish game by Grant since he had never scored this year and even Starks only managed one touchdown. The fantasy value here is always limited to around 50 yards per game for Starks and anything else is gravy.

I will assume both can play and adjust later in the week.

WIDE RECEIVERS: The report on Greg Jennings is that his MCL injury is just a sprain and that he will not miss the playoffs but he will likely miss your playoffs if you were relying on him. He won't be replaced 1:1 though and the Packers will just rotate Jordy Nelson , Donald Driver and James Jones around and the rookie Randall Cobb will get some additional playing time. Jennings had scored nine times this year and leaves a hole even in this prolific offense.

The Chiefs secondary is not as good as the ranking suggests and besides - these are the Packers and there are a lot of them to cover. Nelson has been more of a home field star than on the road but this will give him some experience as the primary receiver. Nelson is a must play but beyond him it is less certain what to expect. Some speculation is that Jermichael Finley will see a boost in workload. It remains fairly speculative outside of Nelson though James Jones is the most likely to see an increase.

TIGHT ENDS: The notion that Rodgers will use Jermichael Finley is ironic given that his departure due to injury last year is when Jennings really took off as the primary receiver. So far, Finley has been little more than a decoy and a marginally reliable tight end. He has scored six times this year but only three times in the last ten games and rarely gains more than 50 yards. The Chiefs are weak against the position anyway though and it would make sense if only for this week.

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM QB RB WR TE PK DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points GB 1 24 1 10 3 1
Preventing Fantasy Points KC 13 27 7 26 17 18


Kansas City Chiefs
Homefield: Arrowhead Stadium
Grass
  Opp Score   Opp Score
1 BUF 7-41 10 DEN 10-17
2 @DET 3-48 11 @NE 3-34
3 @SD 17-20 12 PIT 9-13
4 MIN 22-17 13 @CHI 10-3
5 @IND 28-24 14 @NYJ 10-37
6 Bye - 15 GB -
7 @OAK 28-0 16 OAK -
8 SD 23-20 17 @DEN -
9 MIA 3-31      
Chiefs Report | Statistics | Roster
KANSAS CITY vs GB Rush Catch Pass
QB Kyle Orton - - 240,2
RB Dexter McCluster 30 20 -
RB Jackie Battle 30 - -
WR Jonathan Baldwin - 40 -
WR Steve Breaston - 60,1 -
WR Dwayne Bowe - 80,1 -
PK Ryan Succop 1 FG 2 XP -

Pregame Notes: The Chiefs chopped HC Todd Haley and now DC Romeo Crennel will take over for the rest of the season. Haley had a tough job this year with losses of Jamaal Charles, Tony Moeaki and Matt Cassel and now the starting quarterback is no longer certain. No matter what, hard to imagine the Chiefs keeping up with the Packers.

QUARTERBACK: Interim HC Romeo Crennel has not named a starting quarterback yet and chances are Tyler Palko has played his last since his results were only getting worse every week. The Chiefs drafted Ricky Stanzi out of Iowa and he may play but then again, why throw him into the fire in an offense that won't likely be the same in 2012 anyway? Kyle Orton is another option depending on his dislocated finger.

I will assume Orton can play and update later as warranted. The Packers on the road always allow at least one score if not as many as four and high yardage as well. Who the quarterback will be has an especially critical importance this week.

RUNNING BACKS: The Chiefs are content to chop up the workload into three with Jackie Battle as the slightly heavier used back and Dexter McCluster adding in as a complementary back. Of course Thomas Jones remains involved as well and there is no fantasy value here from a unity with a total of two rushing touchdowns all season. The Packers have a decent rush defense so ignore all backs from the Chiefs at least this week.

Packer matchups always turn into passing shootouts anyway.

WIDE RECEIVERS: There is a sense that the Chiefs have far more talent at wide receiver than the stats indicate which is mostly an indictment of the quarterback. Dwayne Bowe has remained productive with yardage but has not scored since week five. Steve Breaston last scored nine games ago and has been consistently only around 40 yards in almost all games. Jonathan Baldwin has only one game of any note but has at least flashed some raw talent that can be molded into a productive receiver very soon.

The Packers always score, it turns into a shootout and the passing game goes nuts. That makes Bowe and Breaston worthwhile starts this weekend and either could score. The Packers are very weak against the position and this could be a very nice game for both starters if the quarter situation gets straightened out in time.

TIGHT ENDS: No fantasy value.

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM QB RB WR TE PK DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points KC 30 25 20 32 28 21
Preventing Fantasy Points GB 31 14 30 32 6 5

WEEK 15
2011
JAC at ATL (thu) CIN at STL MIA at BUF SEA at CHI
DAL at TB (sat) CLE at ARI NE at DEN TEN at IND
BAL at SD DET at OAK NO at MIN WAS at NYG
  CAR at HOU GB at KC NYJ at PHI PIT at SF (mon)

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