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Predictions & Projections
David Dorey  

Sortable Player Projections | Game Predictions Summary | Projections by Team

JAC at ATL (thu) * CIN at STL * MIA at BUF SEA at CHI
DAL at TB (sat) * CLE at ARI NE at DEN * TEN at IND
BAL at SD * DET at OAK * NO at MIN WAS at NYG
* UPDATED CAR at HOU GB at KC * NYJ at PHI * PIT at SF (mon)

Prediction: MIA 24, BUF 17

Update: Both Anthony Fasano and Matt Moore are considered questionalbe on the injury report but have been able to pracitce on a limited basis and are expected to play.

This is a rematch of week 11 when the Dolphins won 35-8 and Buffalo still had Fred Jackson. Then again, the Fins had a head coach. Miami is only 1-5 in road games and the Bills are on a six game losing streak.

Miami Dolphins
Homefield: Dolphins Stadium
  Opp Score   Opp Score
1 NE 24-38 10 WAS 20-9
2 HOU 13-23 11 BUF 35-8
3 @CLE 16-17 12 @DAL 19-20
4 @SD 16-26 13 OAK 34-14
5 Bye - 14 PHI 10-26
6 @NYJ 6-24 15 @BUF -
7 DEN 15-18 16 @NE -
8 @NYG 17-20 17 NYJ -
9 @KC 31-3      
Dolphins Report | Statistics | Roster
MIAMI at BUF Rush Catch Pass
QB Matt Moore - - 180,2
RB Reggie Bush 50,1 30 -
RB Daniel Thomas 40 - -
TE Anthony Fasano - 20,1 -
WR Brandon Marshall - 70,1 -
WR Brian Hartline - 30 -
WR Davone Bess - 20 -
PK Dan Carpenter 1 FG 3 XP -
Pregame Notes: The Fins had gone 4-1 in recent games but then the loss to the Eagles was the final nail. HC Tony Sparano was fired so the team could get busy finding a replacement but the team he leaves behind is better than their record indicates. Of course the season has to end on a brutal note with games @NE and against the Jets. But this week is a chance to win only their second road game.

QUARTERBACK: Matt Moore is expected to play this week after being driven from the Eagles loss due to head and neck injuries. Moore had a "low-grade concussion" but will suit up to face the same team that the passed for three touchdowns on just a month ago. On the road, Moore should find it together to reach that many scores and he only ended with 160 yards in that game.

The Bills are no better here a month later and really worse thanks to an offense that has lost just about all punch. Moore is a low-end fantasy start but should reach a couple of scores.

RUNNING BACKS: Daniel Thomas still plugs away as the short yardage, relief back who never scores and rarely has more than 50 total yards. Thomas gained exactly 50 on 15 runs in the first meeting with the Fins. Reggie Bush ended that game with 32 yards and a touchdown on 15 carries with 34 more yards as a receiver. Bush has been better than that for a month now, topping 100 rush yards in each of the last two weeks.

The Bills are really struggling to score now and that leaves field position issues and bad situations for their own defense. Consider Bush a reasonable start this week who should notch another rushing score but his yardage likely won't get too big. These teams already know each other too well.

WIDE RECEIVERS: The previous meeting with the Bills was a rout and did not need to rely much on the wide receivers. Brandon Marshall had a season worst one catch for five yards. Brian Hartline turned in just one catch for 19 yards and Davone Bess was the leader with only two catches for 25 yards and one touchdown. I like one of the scores to end up with a wideout and Brandon Marshall should see a bigger role this time since three of his last four road games were all over 100 yards each.

Bess and Hartline have never been effective this year but Marshall remains worth a fantasy start if only for some yardage.

TIGHT ENDS: Anthony Fasano has been a marginal player all year and only had one catch over the last two games but he has four scores on the season and one came in the first meeting with the Bills. Add in that Buffalo is ranked 29th against the position with seven scores allowed and Fasano has a nice chance to get another score this week.

Gaining Fantasy Points MIA 24 11 26 24 12 30
Preventing Fantasy Points BUF 23 29 18 29 12 9

Buffalo Bills
Homefield: Ralph Wilson Stadium
  Opp Score   Opp Score
1 @KC 41-7 10 @DAL 7-44
2 OAK 38-35 11 @MIA 8-35
3 NE 34-31 12 @NYJ 24-28
4 @CIN 20-23 13 TEN 17-23
5 PHI 31-24 14 @SD 10-37
6 @NYG 24-27 15 MIA -
7 Bye - 16 DEN -
8 WAS 23-0 17 @NE -
9 NYJ 11-27      
Bills Report | Statistics | Roster
BUFFALO vs MIA Rush Catch Pass
QB Ryan Fitzpatrick - - 220,2
RB C.J. Spiller 30 10 -
WR David Nelson - 60,1 -
WR Steve Johnson - 70,1 -
WR Brad Smith - 40 -
PK Dave Rayner 1 FG 2 XP -

Pregame Notes: A season that started with so much promise is ending with just another long string of losses that are getting bigger each week it seems. The loss of Fred Jackson robbed the offense of their only consistently productive player and C.J. Spiller is hardly bringing the defense up close to the line of scrimmage. There is a distinct chance - make it a probability - that the Bills end up with a nine game losing streak and that will probably push the coaches out the door.

QUARTERBACK: Ryan Fitzpatrick only passed for 209 yards and no scores in Miami and has been held to just one touchdown in most games anyway. Back at home should see at least some improvement from the first meeting and the Fins secondary is only average. Fitzpatrick is not worth a fantasy start but should end up with decent yardage and at least one and possibly two touchdowns if only later in the game.

RUNNING BACKS: C.J. Spiller is not going to make anyone forget about Fred Jackson though in reality, Jackson is 31 years old and Spiller was supposed to be the future. Apparently the future is not going to be all that bright since he has remained pedestrian in his stats and his workload is slowly decreasing each week while the offense has to pass more. Spiller still has only a minimal role as a receiver.

Back in week 11, Jackson rushed for only 17 yards on seven carries but added 50 yards on five catches while Spiller only gained two yards on three carries. The Dolphins are great against the run and the Bills won't much bother with it this week.

WIDE RECEIVERS: Brad Smith remains more of a gimmick than a receiver and comes off a game with five targets and no receptions. Steve Johnson only managed two catches for 16 yards in the first meeting but has been far better in his other games. Johnson just recorded his first 100 yard game this season in the San Diego loss. Johnson also injured his hand but early reports are that it is a nonfactor and not limiting. David Nelson had just one catch for zero yards in that Miami matchup but has also been far better in virtually every other game. Nelson has scored five times this season while Johnson posted six touchdowns.

This is where the Bills will try to compete and should have more success than in the Miami fiasco if only in trash time. Johnson remains a decent start with a chance for a touchdown. The Fins have allowed eight scores over their six road games. The second score is more likely to end up with Nelson if it happens at all. This is where Chandler could have been at least a minor factor.

TIGHT ENDS: No fantasy value this week with Scott Chandler out with a high ankle sprain that may keep him from playing again this year. Mike Caussin replaces him but is not worth a flyer. Chandler accounted for a team high 71 yards on five catches in the first meeting.

Gaining Fantasy Points BUF 17 16 8 22 21 13
Preventing Fantasy Points MIA 18 4 21 18 14 16

JAC at ATL (thu) CIN at STL MIA at BUF SEA at CHI
DAL at TB (sat) CLE at ARI NE at DEN TEN at IND
  CAR at HOU GB at KC NYJ at PHI PIT at SF (mon)

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