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Predictions & Projections
David Dorey  

Sortable Player Projections | Game Predictions Summary | Projections by Team

WEEK 15
2011
JAC at ATL (thu) * CIN at STL * MIA at BUF SEA at CHI
DAL at TB (sat) * CLE at ARI NE at DEN * TEN at IND
BAL at SD * DET at OAK * NO at MIN WAS at NYG
* UPDATED CAR at HOU GB at KC * NYJ at PHI * PIT at SF (mon)

Prediction: NYJ 17, PHI 23

Update: Jeremy Maclin is listed as questionable but was back for a full practice on Friday and is expected to play.

The 8-5 Jets are still in the hunt for a wild card and bring their 2-4 road record to Philly. Yes, 6-1 at home and 2-4 on the road. The Jets are on a three game winning streak and slapping up some nice points on the scoreboard lately. The Eagles are 5-8 and out of it long ago and they are just, what? Yes - 1-5 at home. At least Vick is back.

New York Jets
Homefield: Meadowlands Stadium
FieldTurf
  Opp Score   Opp Score
1 DAL 27-24 10 NE 16-37
2 JAC 32-3 11 @DEN 13-17
3 @OAK 24-34 12 BUF 28-24
4 @BAL 17-34 13 @WAS 34-19
5 @NE 21-30 14 KC 37-10
6 MIA 24-6 15 @PHI -
7 SD 27-21 16 NYG -
8 Bye - 17 @MIA -
9 @BUF 27-11      
Jets Report | Statistics | Roster
NY JETS at PHI Rush Catch Pass
QB Mark Sanchez - - 200,2
RB Shonn Greene 80 - -
RB LaDainian Tomlinson 20 20,1 -
TE Dustin Keller - 40 -
WR Plaxico Burress - 40 -
WR Jeremy Kerley - 30 -
WR Santonio Holmes - 50,1 -
PK Nick Folk 1 FG 2 XP -
Pregame Notes: The Jets still need some help to reach the playoffs if they lose any of the remaining games and this week and then hosting the suddenly hot again Giants are not going to be easy. The defense just lost FS Jim Leonhard with a torn right patellar tendon and the Jets have just not been as good away from home. But if they cannot win here - the playoffs are not going anywhere for them anyway.

QUARTERBACK: One of the oddities of 2011 - Mark Sanchez rushed for five touchdowns and Michael Vick has none. Sanchez scored all but one in a home game though and on the road he has been less effective. The last five trips away from New York have only totaled four touchdowns and that included two in New England where there is a big jar that says "Take Three". He's also been more likely to have a sub-200 yard game away from home.

The Eagles have always allowed a visiting quarterback to throw for at least one score if not more. But the Eagles show up some times and others they do not. They are just playing for pride now but after this season that counts for something. I like to play it safe here and assume a lower game from Sanchez.

RUNNING BACKS: Shonn Greene has scored an unprecedented four times over the last two games and been effective as a receiver as well as a runner. His 129 yards against the Chiefs was a season high as were the 58 yards he gained on three catches. Last week - it all went right. And yet he was just as effective in Washington two weeks ago.

The Eagles have been soft against the run even at home but they can also show up and shut down Beanie Wells and the Patriots backfield in the last two home games. Eagles on the road - always bad against the run but at home it all depends on which Eagles show up that week. Green has been hot in the last two games but had no scores in the six previous matchups and struggled to gain more than 70 or 80 yards in those. Again - using that risky most recent history figure on Greene slowing down on the road this week. He could surprise - he mostly disappoints.

WIDE RECEIVERS: This should be interesting with two "shut down" corners in the same game. Nnamdi Asomugha will naturally match on Plaxico Burress unless they change it which they have not historically. Of the seven touchdowns scored by Burress, only one came in a road game and that was back in week three. Burress was blanked last week against the Chiefs and it wasn't even the first time this year. Santonio Holmes has been on a roll with a touchdown in each of the last three games though his yardage had remained below 60 in almost every game this year.

I like a score to end up here and that should favor Holmes strongly. He just never has much yardage.

TIGHT ENDS: Dustin Keller has four scores on the year and all were at home. He tends to gain less in most road venues and is a risk to rely on for more than around 40 yards in any given week. Especially on the road. He has scored in only one game over the last 12 weeks.

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM QB RB WR TE PK DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points NYJ 12 8 23 16 20 6
Preventing Fantasy Points PHI 16 24 19 12 2 22


Philadelphia Eagles
Homefield: Lincoln Financial Field
Turf
  Opp Score   Opp Score
1 @STL 31-13 10 ARI 17-21
2 @ATL 31-35 11 @NYG 17-10
3 NYG 16-29 12 NE 20-38
4 SF 23-24 13 @SEA 14-31
5 @BUF 24-31 14 @MIA 26-10
6 @WAS 20-13 15 NYJ -
7 Bye - 16 @DAL -
8 DAL 34-7 17 WAS -
9 CHI 24-30      
Eagles Report | Statistics | Roster
PHILADELPHIA vs NYJ Rush Catch Pass
QB Michael Vick 50 - 220,1
RB LeSean McCoy 80,1 30 -
TE Brent Celek - 40 -
WR DeSean Jackson - 40 -
WR Jason Avant - 50,1 -
WR Jeremy Maclin - 50 -
PK Alex Henery 3 FG 2 XP -

Pregame Notes: This has been a season of much dissent and disappointment for the Eagles even though it was first expected to be a great season. But Michael Vick has broken down more than once and worse yet he has never scored as a runner. His passing stats have been less than stellar compared to 2010 as well. With just two home games left, the Eagles need to end the season on a high note and hope that there's not any blood letting in the offseason. The die may have already been cast though.

QUARTERBACK: Michael Vick is back again, this time from having two broken ribs back in week ten. He played well enough in Miami and came out with no setbacks or problems according to HC Andy Reid. Oddly enough, Vick has been less productive when he is at home because LeSean McCoy has a tendency to take the game over and reduce the need to pass.

Best assumption here is that McCoy again does his magic and doesn't require as much from Vick again this week.

RUNNING BACKS: There has been plenty of bad going on this year and none of it has anything to do with LeSean McCoy. He has been all that is good and noble about the Eagles. McCoy has 14 rushing scores and three more as a receiver. he has failed to score in just one game and basically has never turned in a bad effort. Never. He has been consistent gold with a dual role to ensure plenty of yards to go with the somewhat guaranteed touchdown.

The Jets on the road have been much weaker against the run and allowed seven scores and three 100+ yard efforts in the six games away from New York. expect the gold standard from McCoy and hope you always get so lucky in your drafts.

WIDE RECEIVERS: Steve Smith has been diagnosed with a bone bruise in his surgically repaired left knee and has been placed on injured reserve as one of those "much ado about nothing" guys. This week they will be monitoring Jeremy Maclin after he had his hamstring tighten up against the Dolphins and needed Riley Cooper to take his place. I will assume Maclin plays and update as needed. Darrell Revis should matchup on DeSean Jackson and hold him to a low game like most of his other efforts. Jackson only has three scores on the season though one was just last week in Miami. All three of his touchdowns came in road games though.

That should leave Jason Avant as the healthiest wideout not being covered by top defender though Cooper could show back up depending on how Maclin does. Have to lean towards Avant as most likely to score but the yardage is going to be moderate here at best.

TIGHT ENDS: Brent Celek is back to being a moderate play for some yardage since he has not scored since week eight but does post 40 to 50 yards in most recent games.

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM QB RB WR TE PK DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points PHI 8 6 9 21 17 8
Preventing Fantasy Points NYJ 5 9 4 14 19 30

WEEK 15
2011
JAC at ATL (thu) CIN at STL MIA at BUF SEA at CHI
DAL at TB (sat) CLE at ARI NE at DEN TEN at IND
BAL at SD DET at OAK NO at MIN WAS at NYG
  CAR at HOU GB at KC NYJ at PHI PIT at SF (mon)

a d v e r t i s e m e n t