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Predictions & Projections
David Dorey  

Sortable Player Projections | Game Predictions Summary | Projections by Team

WEEK 16
2011
HOU at IND (thu) * JAC at TEN OAK at KC * STL at PIT
ARI at CIN MIA at NE * PHI at DAL TB at CAR
* CLE at BAL * MIN at WAS * SD at DET * CHI at GB
* UPDATED DEN at BUF * NYG at NYJ * SF at SEA * ATL at NO (mon)

Prediction: CHI 10, GB 27

Update: James Starks has practiced and is expected to play. That makes Ryan Grant of no significance this week and even Starks will share and be of marginal value. Marion Barber is listed as doubtful and never practiced so is not expected to play this week.

The Bears are in a four game losing free fall and at 7-7 have realistically already missed their chances for the post season when they looked like a lock only a month ago. The Bears are only 2-4 on the road and the Packers are coming off their only loss of the season. This is a replay of week three when the visiting Packers won 27-17 in Chicago.

Chicago Bears
Homefield: Soldier Field
Grass
  Opp Score   Opp Score
1 ATL 30-12 10 DET 37-13
2 @NO 13-30 11 SD 31-20
3 GB 17-27 12 @OAK 20-25
4 CAR 34-29 13 KC 3-10
5 @DET 13-24 14 @DEN 10-13
6 MIN 39-10 15 SEA 14-38
7 @TB 24-18 16 @GB -
8 Bye - 17 @MIN -
9 @PHI 30-24      
Bears Report | Statistics | Roster
CHICAGO at GB Rush Catch Pass
QB Caleb Hanie - - 180,1
RB Marion Barber 20 - -
RB Kahlil Bell 50 50 -
WR Roy Williams - 30 -
WR Devin Hester - 40 -
WR Earl Bennett - 20 -
PK Robbie Gould 1 FG 1 XP -
Pregame Notes: The Bears witnessed the season slip through their fingers when Jay Cutler went down followed by Matt Forte for a one-two punch to the gut that they simply could not recover from. The final game in Minnesota could be a win and preserve a .500 record but a most promising season has gone sour for the Bears who still hold out hope they could get back Cutler or Forte before the season ends. Problem is - too little too late and the season ends in two weeks after two road games.

QUARTERBACK: Caleb Hanie has been named the starter this week at least as of Monday but he may end up giving way to Josh McCown either at the first snap or during the game. Hanie has not done himself any favors with three touchdowns and nine interceptions over his four starts. Jay Cutler passed for 302 yards and two scores in the week three meeting but Hanie has yet to show he can take advantage of weak defenses. Consider too the Packers are coming off their only loss and will be plenty focused.

RUNNING BACKS: Despite his sparing use, Marion Barber appears to have run out of gas and only managed 33 yards on 11 carries while Kahlil Bell ran for 65 yards on 15 carries and added 43 yards and a score on five receptions. Chances are both will play and that Bell will get the bulk of work but remember the Packers held Matt Forte to only two yards on nine carries in the first meeting though he added 80 yards on seven receptions.

Bell is the best start here but that doesn't mean too much. At least he'll add some receptions.

WIDE RECEIVERS: Quite frankly - doesn't matter. Johnny Knox miraculously missed severe injury last week when he was bent backwards farther than any person I have ever seen. He is out for the season while Sam Hurd has been released to prepare his defense as to why he kept bags of grass clippings inside his house . The latest Scarface wannabe, Hurd is on tap for 40 years of cell mates wanting him to "say hello to their little friend". This has been largely a wasteland all year though Earl Bennett was a decent play for a few weeks with Cutler under center. No consistency or even real production here.

TIGHT ENDS: No fantasy value.

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM QB RB WR TE PK DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points CHI 25 7 25 27 12 1
Preventing Fantasy Points GB 29 16 29 32 7 4


Green Bay Packers
Homefield: Lambeau Field
Grass
  Opp Score   Opp Score
1 NO 42-34 10 MIN 45-7
2 @CAR 30-23 11 TB 35-26
3 @CHI 27-17 12 @DET 27-15
4 DEN 49-23 13 @NYG 38-35
5 @ATL 25-14 14 OAK 46-16
6 STL 24-3 15 @KC 14-19
7 @MIN 33-27 16 CHI -
8 Bye - 17 DET -
9 @SD 45-38      
Packers Report | Statistics | Roster
GREEN BAY vs CHI Rush Catch Pass
QB Aaron Rodgers - - 300,3
RB Ryan Grant 30 10 -
RB James Starks 40 20 -
TE Jermichael Finley - 90,1 -
WR Jordy Nelson - 100,1 -
WR Donald Driver - 30 -
WR James Jones - 40,1 -
PK Mason Crosby 2 FG 3 XP -

Pregame Notes: Hard to believe Greg Jennings was the glue holding it all together. But the Packers finally fell from the ranks of the unbeaten in a surprising manner and the only change was the absence of Greg Jennings. Chalk it all up to the eventual bad game that all teams have and the final two matchups are at home against CHI and DET. Packers will end up with the same #1 seed and just need to get through the final two weeks without getting anyone else hurt while still winning. There is a chance they could sit players in the season finale but not likely this week.

QUARTERBACK: Aaron Rodgers picked a bad week to run out on his fantasy owners when he only passed for 235 yards and one score in Kansas City but he did rush in one touchdown to offer at least some fantasy value. Rodgers passed for 297 yards and three touchdowns in Chicago back in week three. He should be good for a similar performance here at home though if the Bears prove extra easy this time Rodgers may not press on yardage.

RUNNING BACKS: Chances are the Packers will allow James Starks to heal up this week since Ryan Grant has been effective in his place. Grant ran for 85 yards and two scores on ten carries in Oakland and then gained 66 yards on 12 runs in Kansas City. Grant rushed for a season best 92 yards on 17 runs in the previous meeting in Chicago anyway. That was one of the best games allowed by the Bears this year as well as produced by a Packers back.

It is always hard to rely on a touchdown by a Packers runner since they only have seven all year but Grant should have at least moderate yardage in this game.

WIDE RECEIVERS: Hard to use the Chiefs loss as a measuring stick of life without Greg Jennings since it was a bad game all around. In true Rodgers-fashion, each of the four wideouts were thrown four passes. Randall Cobb led the group with four receptions for 53 yards and Donald Driver was held to only two catches for seven yards but score a touchdown. James Jones (2-17) and Jordy Nelson (2-29) were both surprisingly ineffective. Again - it was just a trap game.

In the last meeting with the Bears, Jennings was the big leader with 119 yards on nine carries but that was normal for a road game. Jordy Nelson only gained 40 yards on three catches that again was normal for a road game. Expect a better showing this week from the wideouts and in particular for Nelson who should end up a lock for good yardage and a score.

TIGHT ENDS: Jermichael Finley did see a spike in workload with Jennings gone and was thrown ten targets. But he dropped several and ended with only three catches but gained 83 yards. The Bears are weak against the position and back in week three, Finley had his best game of the year with seven catches for 85 yards and three touchdowns.

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM QB RB WR TE PK DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points GB 1 25 1 10 4 3
Preventing Fantasy Points CHI 18 8 13 29 21 28

WEEK 16
2011
HOU at IND (thu) JAC at TEN OAK at KC STL at PIT
ARI at CIN MIA at NE PHI at DAL TB at CAR
CLE at BAL MIN at WAS SD at DET CHI at GB
  DEN at BUF NYG at NYJ SF at SEA ATL at NO (mon)

a d v e r t i s e m e n t