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Predictions & Projections
David Dorey  

Sortable Player Projections | Game Predictions Summary | Projections by Team

WEEK 16
2011
HOU at IND (thu) * JAC at TEN OAK at KC * STL at PIT
ARI at CIN MIA at NE * PHI at DAL TB at CAR
* CLE at BAL * MIN at WAS * SD at DET * CHI at GB
* UPDATED DEN at BUF * NYG at NYJ * SF at SEA * ATL at NO (mon)

Prediction: CLE 3, BAL 24

Update: Shayne Graham will kick for Billy Cundiff who is out with a calf injury. Anquan Boldin will be held out due to surgery on his meniscus.

The Browns are on a four game losing streak with nothing looking up other than a merciful end to the season. The Ravens come off their loss in San Diego but at 10-4 are still tied with the Steelers for the division with the first tie breaker and only CLE and CIN left to play. This is a replay of week 13 when the Ravens won 24-10. The Browns are 1-6 on the road while the Ravens are 7-0 at home.

Cleveland Browns
Homefield: Cleveland Stadium
Grass
  Opp Score   Opp Score
1 CIN 17-27 10 STL 12-13
2 @IND 27-19 11 JAC 14-10
3 MIA 17-16 12 @CIN 20-23
4 TEN 13-31 13 BAL 10-24
5 Bye - 14 @PIT 3-14
6 @OAK 17-24 15 @ARI 17-20
7 SEA 6-3 16 @BAL -
8 @SF 10-20 17 PIT -
9 @HOU 12-30      
Browns Report | Statistics | Roster
CLEVELAND at BAL Rush Catch Pass
QB Seneca Wallace - - 160
RB Peyton Hillis 40 10 -
TE Evan Moore - 30 -
WR Mohamed Massaquoi - 50 -
WR Greg Little - 50 -
PK Phil Dawson 1 FG XP -
Pregame Notes: The first year of HC Pat Shumur winds down with not much accomplished with a likely 4-12 record and no progress having been made in any facet of the offense. Greg Little has offered some promise perhaps but no other element of the passing game has done much. This is the final road trip for the Browns who are no doubt tired from three weeks away from home and playing in a game they know they cannot likely win.

QUARTERBACK: Colt McCoy was out last week with a concussion and could be gone this time as well. Seneca Wallace took over in Arizona with a respectable 226 yards and one score but those numbers are hard to repeat this week. McCoy only threw for 192 yards and one score in the home matchup with the Ravens who have only allowed ten passing touchdowns this season. No reason to consider either quarterback this week.

RUNNING BACKS: Peyton Hillis is healthy again and took the entire load last week when he rushed for 99 yards and one score on 26 carries in Arizona but he only managed 45 yards on 12 runs against the Ravens three weeks ago. The Browns have just four rushing touchdowns this year anyway so expect Hillis to offer moderate yardage at best and likely no score. Hillis did turn in a 52 yard catch in the previous Ravens game but has been little used as a receiver this year.

WIDE RECEIVERS: No wideout accounted for more than three catches or 29 yards back in week 13 against these Ravens and Jordan Norwood remains out with a concussion. Greg Little comes off his first big game with 131 yards and one score on five catches in Arizona but only produced 18 yards on three catches in the home meeting. No reason to consider any wideout from the Browns this week.

TIGHT ENDS: Ben Watson was placed on injured reserve and he had 34 yards on three catches against the Ravens last time. That leaves mostly Evan Moore who scored on his two receptions for 28 yards in that game. But it was his only score over the last nine games so expect marginal stats this week.

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM QB RB WR TE PK DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points CLE 26 32 29 12 27 32
Preventing Fantasy Points BAL 2 4 10 2 4 18


Baltimore Ravens
Homefield: M&T Bank Stadium
Sport Turf
  Opp Score   Opp Score
1 PIT 35-7 10 @SEA 17-22
2 @TEN 13-26 11 CIN 31-24
3 @STL 37-7 12 SF 16-6
4 NYJ 34-17 13 @CLE 24-10
5 Bye - 14 IND 24-10
6 HOU 29-14 15 @SD 14-34
7 @JAC 7-9 16 CLE -
8 ARI 30-27 17 @CIN -
9 @PIT 23-20   - -
Ravens Report | Statistics | Roster
BALTIMORE vs CLE Rush Catch Pass
QB Joe Flacco - - 170,1
RB Ray Rice 150,1 20 -
TE Ed Dickson - 30,1 -
WR Anquan Boldin - 40 -
WR Lee Evans - 10 -
WR Torrey Smith - 40 -
PK Shayne Graham 1 FG 3 XP -
PK Billy Cundiff 1 FG 3 XP -

Pregame Notes: The Ravens have proven to be two very different teams between home and away. Undefeated at home, they have a losing record in away games which could haunt them in the season finale in Cincy where they need to win to ensure that they not only take the division, but get a first round bye. That makes these last two games very important if the Ravens really are going to be anything in the postseason - they need all the home games they can get.

I like a defensive score.

QUARTERBACK: At least Joe Flacco had two scores in the loss in San Diego -most his road games were only one touchdown and his game in Cleveland had only ten completions on 23 attempts for 158 yards but was saved by a monster game by Ray Rice. Expect yet another game of marginal stats from Flacco against a truly good secondary while Rice makes all the difference.

RUNNING BACKS: He's like the new Sweetness. Ray Rice has been a force the entire year and a dual threat that produced great consistency with total yardage. In week 13, he merely gained 204 yards on 29 runs in Cleveland with one score and now hosts them this week. Ravens have been riding Rice hard for the last four games with 20+ carries and should cash in yet again.

WIDE RECEIVERS: The Browns are #1 against wideouts and already held this unit to just three catches for 64 yards in the last meeting including Lee Evans having his traditional no catches. Torrey Smith has scored in the last two games but no wideout is a good fantasy start this week.

TIGHT ENDS: If there is a passing score - and there wasn't the last meeting - it would almost have to end up with either Ray Rice or a tight end. Ed Dickson already lead receivers in the last meeting with the Browns when he caught three passes for 47 yards. It is a risk to be sure, but he's the best bet.

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM QB RB WR TE PK DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points BAL 22 5 28 11 6 4
Preventing Fantasy Points CLE 3 25 1 19 22 11

WEEK 16
2011
HOU at IND (thu) JAC at TEN OAK at KC STL at PIT
ARI at CIN MIA at NE PHI at DAL TB at CAR
CLE at BAL MIN at WAS SD at DET CHI at GB
  DEN at BUF NYG at NYJ SF at SEA ATL at NO (mon)

a d v e r t i s e m e n t