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Predictions & Projections
David Dorey  

Sortable Player Projections | Game Predictions Summary | Projections by Team

WEEK 16
2011
HOU at IND (thu) * JAC at TEN OAK at KC * STL at PIT
ARI at CIN MIA at NE * PHI at DAL TB at CAR
* CLE at BAL * MIN at WAS * SD at DET * CHI at GB
* UPDATED DEN at BUF * NYG at NYJ * SF at SEA * ATL at NO (mon)

Prediction: DEN 24, BUF 13

Denver finally had less than a Tebow-rific game but at 8-6 they still lead the AFC West where no wild card shall come. The Broncos are 5-2 in road games. The Bills are on a seven game losing streak and have a 4-3 home record.

Denver Broncos
Homefield: Invesco Field
Grass
  Opp Score   Opp Score
1 OAK 20-23 10 @KC 17-10
2 CIN 24-22 11 NYJ 17-13
3 @TEN 14-17 12 @SD 16-13
4 @GB 23-49 13 @MIN 35-32
5 SD 24-29 14 CHI 13-10
6 Bye - 15 NE 23-41
7 @MIA 18-15 16 @BUF -
8 DET 10-45 17 KC -
9 @OAK 38-24      
Broncos Report | Statistics | Roster
DENVER at BUF Rush Catch Pass
QB Tim Tebow 70,1 - 150,1
RB Willis McGahee 90,1 - -
RB Lance Ball 30 - -
WR Eric Decker - 30 -
WR Eddie Royal - 10 -
WR Demaryius Thomas - 90,1 -
PK Matt Prater 1 FG 3 XP -
Pregame Notes: The Broncos played up with the Pats for the first half and even had the lead but Willis McGahee was hampered by a hamstring and the Broncos turned the ball over with regularity that killed their chances. These last two games are both easily in reach and the Broncos can still drive their way into the playoffs and host in the first round.

QUARTERBACK: While Tim Tebow only passed for 194 yards on the Patriots, he gained 93 yards on 12 runs and scored twice as a rusher. The plan was more about running the ball in the earlier parts of the game and the Tebow Magical Tour only sustained a bump in the road. This week he faces a Bills team that is almost as weak against the pass as the Patriots and a lot softer against the run. Expect a standard Tebow game with equal parts rushing and passing.

RUNNING BACKS: HC John Fox said that Willis McGahee had a hamstring injury on Monday but that it was nothing major and was not concerned about it. I will assume that McGahee can play with no real limitations and update as needed.

Lance Ball will fill in as needed depending on McGahee's health nd he gained 64 yards on 11 runs and scored once in the Patriots matchup while McGahee was held to seven runs for 70 yards. The Bills
are weak against the run and just gave up 203 yards to Reggie Bush last week. McGahee is a must start if healthy and if not - Ball is worth a shot.

WIDE RECEIVERS: No denying that Demaryius Thomas is the new kid in town. Eric Decker was the clear #1 receiver until the last three weeks when Thomas turned in three touchdowns and is averaging over 100 yards per game. There is no fantasy value in Decker anymore and Thomas has been targeted 13 times in each of the last two matchups - that's half of the passes in each. Thomas is due for a down game but is still worth a start and is the only Bronco receiver of any note now.

TIGHT ENDS: No fantasy value.

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM QB RB WR TE PK DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points DEN 11 18 22 31 26 12
Preventing Fantasy Points BUF 23 30 16 30 19 9


Buffalo Bills
Homefield: Ralph Wilson Stadium
AstroTurf
  Opp Score   Opp Score
1 @KC 41-7 10 @DAL 7-44
2 OAK 38-35 11 @MIA 8-35
3 NE 34-31 12 @NYJ 24-28
4 @CIN 20-23 13 TEN 17-23
5 PHI 31-24 14 @SD 10-37
6 @NYG 24-27 15 MIA 23-30
7 Bye - 16 DEN -
8 WAS 23-0 17 @NE -
9 NYJ 11-27      
Bills Report | Statistics | Roster
BUFFALO vs DEN Rush Catch Pass
QB Ryan Fitzpatrick - - 190,1
RB C.J. Spiller 40 50,1 -
WR David Nelson - 30 -
WR Steve Johnson - 80 -
PK Dave Rayner 2 FG 1 XP -

Pregame Notes: The losing skid has not stopped for the Bills and with two division leaders left to play it will be 2012 before they notch something in the 'W' column. The problem this week is that the Bills have been competitive in divisional games only. Last week was clearly the best shot at a win before the year was out and yet the Fins were too much to handle. Bringing in the Denver defense this week means the Bills are not likely to cure their scoring problems.

QUARTERBACK: Ryan Fitzpatrick has only turned in two decent games in the last two months and those were both against divisional rivals. Otherwise, he's been stuck in sub-200 yard games with either one or no touchdown passes. The Broncos defense has been very good against the position outside of facing a few of the elite quarterbacks in the league. More pertinent here is the rushing problems that the Bills will have. No reason to expect more than a moderate showing by Fitzpatrick.

RUNNING BACKS: C.J. Spiller was a shock when he gained 91 yards and a touchdown on 12 carries versus the Fins and he added nine catches for 76 yards and a score as a receiver. That's almost like taking his yearly totals and doubling them in one game. HC Chan Gailey has said that he does not want to overwork Spiller so more Tashard Choice will be used.

The Broncos have been good against the run with only four rushing touchdowns allowed this year and actually none in road games. Spiller is still worth a start - a surprise in itself - but his production is more likely to come from receptions than running this week. Choice plays but is not worth projecting.

WIDE RECEIVERS: Steve Johnson was pulled from the Miami loss because of his groin though he said he could have returned if they would have allowed him. Johnson claims to have dealt with the groin all year and has been on a nice four game stretch with no worse than 82 yards and/or a touchdown. He remains the only decent fantasy start on the squad and David Nelson is just a possession player good for a handful of catches per week and the rare touchdown on occasion. Johnson should end up as the lead receiver and possibly the only fantasy play for the Bills this week.

TIGHT ENDS: No fantasy value with Scott Chandler out for the year.

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM QB RB WR TE PK DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points BUF 14 9 7 22 22 13
Preventing Fantasy Points DEN 27 19 22 12 31 23

WEEK 16
2011
HOU at IND (thu) JAC at TEN OAK at KC STL at PIT
ARI at CIN MIA at NE PHI at DAL TB at CAR
CLE at BAL MIN at WAS SD at DET CHI at GB
  DEN at BUF NYG at NYJ SF at SEA ATL at NO (mon)

 
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