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Predictions & Projections
David Dorey  

Sortable Player Projections | Game Predictions Summary | Projections by Team

WEEK 16
2011
HOU at IND (thu) * JAC at TEN OAK at KC * STL at PIT
ARI at CIN MIA at NE * PHI at DAL TB at CAR
* CLE at BAL * MIN at WAS * SD at DET * CHI at GB
* UPDATED DEN at BUF * NYG at NYJ * SF at SEA * ATL at NO (mon)

Prediction: HOU 24, IND 10

The Texans ended their seven game winning streak when the Panthers pulled the upset last week in a dominating fashion. Still the Texans have clinched the AFC South and remain in the running for the #2 seed in the AFC. The Colts come off their first win of the year when they upset the visiting Titans but are obviously 0-7 on the road. This is the Thursday night game.

This is a replay of week one when the Texans won 34-7 in Houston.

Houston Texans
Homefield: Reliant Stadium
Grass
  Opp Score   Opp Score
1 IND 34-7 10 @TB 37-9
2 @MIA 23-13 11 Bye -
3 @NO 33-40 12 @JAC 20-13
4 PIT 17-10 13 ATL 17-10
5 OAK 20-25 14 @CIN 20-19
6 @BAL 14-29 15 CAR 13-28
7 @TEN 41-7 16 @IND -
8 JAC 24-14 17 TEN -
9 CLE 30-12      
Texans Report | Statistics | Roster
HOUSTON at IND Rush Catch Pass
QB Taylor Yates - - 190,1
RB Arian Foster 100,1 30 -
RB Ben Tate 40,1 - -
TE Joel Dreesen - 20,1 -
WR Kevin Walter - 50 -
WR Jacoby Jones - 60 -
PK Neil Rackers 1 FG 3 XP -
Pregame Notes: The Texans fell into a trap game last week but still remain alive - they just missed their chance to take a clear lead on one of the top two seeds. The Colts have publicized that they are not dead yet so a trap game here would be a surprise. Winding down with a home game against the Titans should held ensure the Texans remain in contention.

QUARTERBACK: Taylor Yates did not play in the season opener against the Colts but was impressive enough until last week when he was held to only 212 yards and no scores against the Panthers. Yates best effort so far has been in his only road game when he went to Cincinnati and passed for 300 yards and two scores. The Colts have allowed every opposing quarterback to score this year and more importantly the Colts rush defense has been suspect in every game.

Expect a decent game by Yates but not enough to warrant much fantasy attention. The running effort should be enough here.

RUNNING BACKS: Ben Tate opened the season with 116 yards and one score against the Colts while Arian Foster was unable to play. Aside from the Cincy game, Foster has been golden in each of the last nine games and should have at least a good game here if not a monster showing. Winning here and against the Titans means a week off potentially and home field advantages. The Texans have reasons to play this one more focused than last week. No taking the Colts lightly when they are coming off a win.

Tate was limited with a hamstring strain in practice early week but was not expected to be a problem for Thursday. Check inactives to be sure if you are opting to use Tate in the hope that any spillover from Foster will get Tate a score.

WIDE RECEIVERS: Andre' Johnson is likely to miss this game as well and there has been no fantasy value from this group without him. That is partially a function of the best rushing effort in the league and the decreased need to pass the ball. Yates may have some success throwing the ball but no fantasy play is here this week.

TIGHT ENDS: Owen Daniels was held out of practice early week because of his knee so make sure he starts on Thursday if you really need him. Any passing score is most likely to end up with a tight end but Joel Dreesen has been the goal line guy lately. I will remove Daniels from the projections because of his risk and likely marginal production in the best case.

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM QB RB WR TE PK DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points HOU 19 2 31 4 8 10
Preventing Fantasy Points IND 24 29 26 23 27 19


Indianapolis Colts
Homefield: Lucas Oil Stadium
FieldTurf
  Opp Score   Opp Score
1 @HOU 7-34 10 JAC 3-17
2 CLE 19-27 11 Bye -
3 PIT 20-23 12 CAR 19-27
4 @TB 17-24 13 @NE 24-31
5 KC 24-28 14 @BAL 10-24
6 @CIN 17-27 15 TEN 27-13
7 @NO 7-62 16 HOU -
8 @TEN 10-27 17 @JAC -
9 ATL 7-31      
Colts Report | Statistics | Roster
INDIANAPOLIS vs HOU Rush Catch Pass
QB Dan Orlovsky - - 160,1
RB Joseph Addai 20 - -
RB Donald Brown 40 - -
TE Jacob Tamme - 20 -
WR Reggie Wayne - 60,1 -
WR Austin Collie - 20 -
WR Pierre Garcon - 40 -
PK Adam Vinatieri 1 FG 1 XP -

Pregame Notes: At least the Colts have socked away a win and with that avoid the ignominy of being one of the rare winless teams. It was a solid effort last week that looked rather unlike the first 14 games of the season. The Colts also announced that Peyton Manning would not play in 2011 which was really in the nick of time since there are only two games left and he had no chance this week.

QUARTERBACK: Dan Orlovsky finally gets to be the winning pitcher after only throwing for 82 yards and one score on the Titans who were nice enough to implode for the Colts. That makes two of his three starts with fewer than 140 yards and when he faced a decent defense in the Ravens, Orlovsky was held to only 136 yards and one score. The Texans only gave up 197 yards and one score to Kerry Collins in the season opener.

No reason to start Orlovsky against a top 5 defense.

RUNNING BACKS: Delone Carter injured his forearm last week and may not be available this week though he has been of no real consequence. Joseph Addai continues to play with his apparently unhealable hamstring strain and now there is speculation that Donald Brown is and will be king of the backfield despite his career poor showing until the last month. Brown was expected to be gone next season and was kept for 2010 only as depth.

Brown will be the primary back though even against the Panthers he only had 16 carries versus 11 for Addai. Houston sports the #2 defense against running backs so let Brown sit on the sideline this week.

WIDE RECEIVERS: It has been a long time ago, but Reggie Wayne had his best game of the year in the season opener when he caught seven passes for 106 yards and one touchdown on the Texans. Pierre Garcon was limited to just 39 yards on three receptions in that game and Austin Collie was held to no catches. Wayne remains the only reasonable fantasy play this week or any week for these wideouts. If a touchdown pass is thrown, Wayne has the best chance to be the recipient.

TIGHT ENDS: Dallas Clark was out again last week because of a neck stinger and did not practice on Monday. Jacob Tamme has replaced him with a single catch in each of the last two games. Clark accounted for 39 yards on four receptions in the season opener in Houston. I will assume Tamme has the start again this week.

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM QB RB WR TE PK DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points IND 30 31 23 24 30 31
Preventing Fantasy Points HOU 4 2 6 4 8 5

WEEK 16
2011
HOU at IND (thu) JAC at TEN OAK at KC STL at PIT
ARI at CIN MIA at NE PHI at DAL TB at CAR
CLE at BAL MIN at WAS SD at DET CHI at GB
  DEN at BUF NYG at NYJ SF at SEA ATL at NO (mon)

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