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Predictions & Projections
David Dorey  

Sortable Player Projections | Game Predictions Summary | Projections by Team

WEEK 16
2011
HOU at IND (thu) * JAC at TEN OAK at KC * STL at PIT
ARI at CIN MIA at NE * PHI at DAL TB at CAR
* CLE at BAL * MIN at WAS * SD at DET * CHI at GB
* UPDATED DEN at BUF * NYG at NYJ * SF at SEA * ATL at NO (mon)

Prediction: JAC 13, TEN 23

Update: Chris Johnson is listed as questionable because of his ankle but is still expected to play. Marcedes Lewis is still hampered by his hamstring but is expected to play.

The Jaguars fall to 4-10 after being demolished by the Falcons and now head to Tennessee with a 1-6 road record (thank you, Colts!). The Titans are 7-7 and still alive in the wild card hunt if you use a calculator and ignore reality. This is a replay of the season opener that the Jaguars amazingly won 16-14 in the only game that Blaine Gabbert did not play.

Jacksonville Jaguars
Homefield: J'ville Municipal Stadium
Grass
  Opp Score   Opp Score
1 TEN 16-14 10 @IND 17-3
2 @NYJ 3-32 11 @CLE 10-14
3 @CAR 10-16 12 HOU 13-20
4 NO 10-23 13 SD 14-38
5 CIN 20-30 14 TB 41-14
6 @PIT 13-17 15 @ATL 14-41
7 BAL 9-7 16 @TEN -
8 @HOU 14-24 17 IND -
9 Bye -      
Jaguars Report | Statistics | Roster
JACKSONVILLE at TEN Rush Catch Pass
QB Blaine Gabbert - - 150
RB Maurice Jones-Drew 90,1 20 -
TE Marcedes Lewis - 40 -
WR Jarrett Dillard - 40 -
WR Chastin West - 30 -
PK Josh Scobee 2 FG 1 XP -
Pregame Notes: The Jaguars are winding down the season with Maurice Jones-Drew and the #32 quarterback and wide receivers in the league. Imagine if Jones-Drew had been injured. A final home game against the Colts gives some hope for a win but as a road team, the complete lack of a passing game is more than even Jones-Drew can compensate.

QUARTERBACK: The biggest fear about Blaine Gabbert is that he will get shell-shocked after a disastrous rookie season. He has only passed for 11 touchdowns against ten interceptions and 36 sacks. He has never thrown for over 225 yards in any game and fell short of 150 yards on eight different occasions. He's been a nonfactor the entire season despite the success of so many other rookie quarterbacks.

Anything beyond marginal yardage and one touchdown would be a huge success.

RUNNING BACKS: Considering the lack of offense around him, Maurice Jones-Drew should be a MVP candidate. Despite every defense being dedicated almost solely to stopping him, MJD has topped 100 total yards in each of the last nine games and has a total of ten touchdowns this year. He rushed for 1334 yards on 294 carries for an average of 4.5 yards per carry - astounding all things considered. Jones-Drew rushed for 97 yards and one score in the season opener against the Titans.

The Titans rushing defense has been their weakness this year and Jones-Drew remains a must start.

WIDE RECEIVERS: No reason to give this any more thought than needed - no fantasy value and no real NFL value either. The lack of success of Gabbert certainly translates to the wideouts but that doesn't necessarily mean the fault lies with Gabbert. This unit has been unproductive all year and has no reliability.

TIGHT ENDS: Marcedes Lewis has been yet another disappointment for the Jaguars. He's topped 40 yards in only four games and still has not scored this season. Lewis turned in two catches for 28 yards in the season opener against the TItans.

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM QB RB WR TE PK DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points JAC 32 14 32 28 28 18
Preventing Fantasy Points TEN 11 22 9 24 16 7


Tennessee Titans
Homefield: LP Field
Grass
  Opp Score   Opp Score
1 @JAC 14-16 10 @CAR 30-3
2 BAL 26-13 11 @ATL 17-23
3 DEN 17-14 12 TB 23-17
4 @CLE 31-13 13 @BUF 23-17
5 @PIT 17-38 14 NO 17-22
6 Bye - 15 @IND 13-27
7 HOU 7-41 16 JAC -
8 IND 27-10 17 @HOU -
9 CIN 17-24      
Titans Report | Statistics | Roster
TENNESSEE vs JAC Rush Catch Pass
QB Matt Hasselbeck - - 240,1
RB Chris Johnson 60 30 -
TE Jared Cook - 40 -
WR Lavelle Hawkins - 20 -
WR Nate Washington - 50,1 -
WR Damian Williams - 70 -
PK Rob Bironas 3 FG 2 XP -

Pregame Notes: A win this week means a .500 record at the worst and for a first year coach that's not bad. Losing to the Colts is no resume builder but at least this final home game should be a win and then heading into Houston will be the final loss. No real progress has been made with this team but at least all the schemes are installed now and next season can look for improvements.

I like a defensive score.

QUARTERBACK: Matt Hasselbeck will likely start this game as long as his sore calf permits him and he passed for 263 yards and two scores in the season opener against these Jaguars. Jake Locker has a good chance of stepping in though and that makes the Titans quarterback a hands off situation this week. I'll project for only Hasselbeck but realize the risk is there as it has been for the last couple of weeks.

RUNNING BACKS: Chris Johnson only gained 55 yards on 15 carries in Indianapolis last week though he had a season high eight catches for 54 yards. Johnson is playing with an ankle sprain though HC Mike Munchak insists that it is not significant and that Johnson should be available for this week. If he was not, Jamie Harper would fill in since Javon Ringer has been placed on injured reserve.

The Jaguars have been weak on the road against the run and allowed five rushing touchdowns and three 100 yard games. With Johnson you can never really know what is going to happen this year. I will assume he is not limited from his ankle sprain and can play better against a softer defense.

WIDE RECEIVERS: The season opener had scores and yardage because Kenny Britt turned in 136 yards and two touchdowns but since he has left it has been up to both Damian Williams and Nate Washington who both have turned in good stretches of games and yet never both have a big effort in the same matchup. Washington has been the hot on lately with a score in each of the last two games and no fewer than 62 yards. Williams was hot in midseason but has since cooled down and only scored once in the last five weeks.

The Jags are better against wideouts but still usually allow one score to the position every week.

TIGHT ENDS: The intention is to use Jared Cook more and he comes off a season best nine catches for 103 yards in Indy. But he was blanked in each of the previous two games and has only done well against against the Colts. He's too risky for a fantasy start even with the opportunity there.

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM QB RB WR TE PK DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points TEN 16 29 12 18 17 20
Preventing Fantasy Points JAC 7 15 7 20 5 16

WEEK 16
2011
HOU at IND (thu) JAC at TEN OAK at KC STL at PIT
ARI at CIN MIA at NE PHI at DAL TB at CAR
CLE at BAL MIN at WAS SD at DET CHI at GB
  DEN at BUF NYG at NYJ SF at SEA ATL at NO (mon)

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