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Predictions & Projections
David Dorey  

Sortable Player Projections | Game Predictions Summary | Projections by Team

WEEK 16
2011
HOU at IND (thu) * JAC at TEN OAK at KC * STL at PIT
ARI at CIN MIA at NE * PHI at DAL TB at CAR
* CLE at BAL * MIN at WAS * SD at DET * CHI at GB
* UPDATED DEN at BUF * NYG at NYJ * SF at SEA * ATL at NO (mon)

Prediction: MIN 17, WAS 27

Update: Roy Helu is listed as questionable but is still expected to play.

The 2-12 Vikings hit the road where they are 1-6 and go to face the 5-9 Redskins and their mighty 2-5 home record. This is a coin flip game and yet the Vikings are on a five game losing streak with no real defense.

Minnesota Vikings
Homefield: Metrodome
FieldTurf
  Opp Score   Opp Score
1 @SD 17-24 10 @GB 7-45
2 TB 20-24 11 OAK 21-27
3 DET 23-26 12 @ATL 14-24
4 @KC 17-22 13 DEN 32-35
5 ARI 34-10 14 @DET 28-34
6 @CHI 10-39 15 NO 20-42
7 GB 27-33 16 @WAS -
8 @CAR 24-21 17 CHI -
9 Bye -      
Vikings Report | Statistics | Roster
MINNESOTA at WAS Rush Catch Pass
QB Christian Ponder - - 180,1
RB Adrian Peterson 90,1 - -
TE Vishante Shiancoe - 30,1 -
WR Devin Aromashodu - 30 -
WR Greg Camarillo - 20 -
WR Percy Harvin 10 40 -
PK Ryan Longwell 1 FG 2 XP -
Pregame Notes: The Colts win gives some small hope that the Vikings could get back into the race for the #1 pick in the draft in April. But since they already have a quarterback, there is no sense in it and there are so many team needs starting with and running through the entire defense, that the Vikes would be better served ending the year on a high note. This road game will be tough as they always are but with some luck the Bears might end up beatable in the season finale.

QUARTERBACK: While Christian Ponder makes his share of mistakes with 12 interceptions, he's been at least promising for the future with multiple scores in in five of eight starts and one game over 300 yards. Ponder has been challenged to throw for more than 200 yards in any road game though and was limited to only one touchdown in all but one away venue.

The Redskins are about average against the pass with most opposing quarterbacks passing for at least one score or more. Ponder is not among the top passers yet so expect another sub-200 game like almost all the other road games.

RUNNING BACKS: Adrian Peterson missed three games with a high ankle sprain but returned against the Saints and posted 60 yards on ten carries while Toby Gerhart scored twice as a receiver. Peterson should take a bigger load this week and the Redskins have been generally good at home against running backs. Gerhart is not an attractive start with Peterson back and better.

It all depends on how his ankle holds up but Peterson is a must start with a shot at a decent game this week. Most elite backs end up around 100 yards with one score on the Redskins.

WIDE RECEIVERS: After four straight weeks of scoring a touchdown and posting nice fantasy points, Percy Harvin was shut down by the Saints. He only gained eight yards on three catches and lost one yard on his only carry. The problem is that Harvin is the only wideout that ever has any notable production. Greg Camarillo is a fill-in with one catch in most tilts and Devin Aromashodu usually stays below 40 yards in every game and has just one score on the season. The Redskins are very good against wideouts and the Vikings are really down to only one. That makes Harvin a risky start this week because he has become the entirety of passing success.

TIGHT ENDS: The Redskins are very weak against the tight ends but the Vikings are starting to de emphasize Vishante Shiancoe and take a longer look at rookie Kyle Rudolph. I like the score coming here but it could go to either tight end. I will project for Shiancoe but it is truly a coin flip.

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM QB RB WR TE PK DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points MIN 17 11 18 20 23 24
Preventing Fantasy Points WAS 10 17 4 31 28 20


Washington Redskins
Homefield: FedEx Field
Grass
  Opp Score   Opp Score
1 NYG 28-14 10 @MIA 9-20
2 ARI 22-21 11 DAL 24-27
3 @DAL 16-18 12 @SEA 23-17
4 @STL 17-10 13 NYJ 19-34
5 Bye - 14 NE 27-34
6 PHI 13-20 15 @NYG 23-10
7 @CAR 20-33 16 MIN -
8 @BUF 0-23 17 @PHI -
9 SF 11-19      
Redskins Report | Statistics | Roster
WASHINGTON vs MIN Rush Catch Pass
QB Rex Grossman - - 310,2
RB Evan Royster 40 10 -
RB Roy Helu 60,1 20 -
WR Santana Moss - 100,1 -
WR Anthony Armstrong - 20 -
WR Donte Stallworth - 60 -
WR Jabbar Gaffney - 90,1 -
PK Graham Gano 2 FG 3 XP -

Pregame Notes: The enigmatic Redskins have lost six of their last eight games and yet the two wins were on the road against the Seahawks and Giants. The Skins could choke here and no one be that surprised. And yet they care capable of playing very well if only on the rare occasion. This is the final home game for the year and that should play into the victory against arguably the weakest defense they have faced in the last two months.

QUARTERBACK: Not surprisingly, Rex Grossman has been all over the map in production and losing both right ends have not been any help. But he has posted two touchdowns in five games and all went against softer secondaries like the Vikings are saddled with. No reason why he should not post at least two scores and healthy yardage as all do against them. Consider Grossman as a decent start this week with some upside for a big game. The Vikings are bottom ranked against the position - that has to be the key to winning this game.

RUNNING BACKS: Roy Helu was held to only 53 yards on 23 carries in New York and he is feeling the effects of toe, ankle and knee injuries that may be a factor this week as well. Helu was on a three game stretch of 100+ rushing yard games. Evan Royster stepped in with ten carries for 36 yards last week and could figure in even more if Helu's injuries continue to bother him. I will project for Helu being only slightly limited and update as warranted.

I like a touchdown scored here but that could go to either Helu or Royster.

WIDE RECEIVERS: With Fred Davis gone, the Skins have gone to using more wide receivers since there are no more receiving tight ends on the roster. Santana Moss has scored in each of the last two games and now faces the visiting #30 defense against wide outs. Jabbar Gaffney has also been a big contributor lately with 70+ yards in four of the last five games. For a comparison, consider just two weeks ago against the Patriots, Gaffney scored once on six catches for 92 yards and Moss turned in three receptions for 81 yards and a score as well. This is a must start week for both Moss and Gaffney, even more so with Helu potentially banged up.

TIGHT ENDS: No fantasy value.

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM QB RB WR TE PK DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points WAS 21 27 19 13 16 26
Preventing Fantasy Points MIN 32 20 30 27 32 30

WEEK 16
2011
HOU at IND (thu) JAC at TEN OAK at KC STL at PIT
ARI at CIN MIA at NE PHI at DAL TB at CAR
CLE at BAL MIN at WAS SD at DET CHI at GB
  DEN at BUF NYG at NYJ SF at SEA ATL at NO (mon)

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