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Predictions & Projections
David Dorey  

Sortable Player Projections | Game Predictions Summary | Projections by Team

WEEK 16
2011
HOU at IND (thu) * JAC at TEN OAK at KC * STL at PIT
ARI at CIN MIA at NE * PHI at DAL TB at CAR
* CLE at BAL * MIN at WAS * SD at DET * CHI at GB
* UPDATED DEN at BUF * NYG at NYJ * SF at SEA * ATL at NO (mon)

Prediction: NYG 17, NYJ 23

Update: Mario Manningham is doubtful to play because of his knee and never practiced. I am removing him from the projections.

The Battle of East Rutherford is on. The 7-7 Giants come off a loss to the Redskins that means there is no margin of error since the Cowboys are 8-6 and visit next week. The Jets are 8-6 and both teams are essentially home this week. This is the first time the two have met since 2007. Both teams have been inconsistent so that almost anything could happen here.

New York Giants
Homefield: Meadowlands Stadium
FieldTurf
  Opp Score   Opp Score
1 @WAS 14-28 10 @SF 20-27
2 STL 28-16 11 PHI 10-17
3 @PHI 29-16 12 @NO 24-49
4 @ARI 31-27 13 GB 35-38
5 SEA 25-36 14 @DAL 37-34
6 BUF 27-24 15 WAS 10-23
7 Bye - 16 @NYJ -
8 MIA 20-17 17 DAL -
9 @NE 24-20 - - -
Giants Report | Statistics | Roster
NY GIANTS at NYJ Rush Catch Pass
QB Eli Manning - - 230,2
RB Brandon Jacobs 30 20,1 -
RB Ahmad Bradshaw 40 30 -
WR Victor Cruz - 60,1 -
WR Hakeem Nicks - 50 -
WR Mario Manningham - 60,1 -
PK Lawrence Tynes 1 FG 2 XP -
Pregame Notes: They are all playoff games from here on out. The Giants must win both the final games to have any control of what can translate into a division win and there will be no wild card in the making. Either take the NFC East or sit at home is the reality. But the Giants had everything to win last week and came out flat against the Redskins who mowed them over for the second time this year.

QUARTERBACK: Eli Manning was on a red hot streak for three weeks of 400 yard games and multiple touchdowns but then only managed 257 yards and no scores with three interceptions agaisnt the Redskins. This week he could be without any receviing tight end since Jake Ballard has a PCL injury which means the only weakness of the Jets secondary cannot be attacked. Both teams are inconsistent enough to make anything possible but this should end up as a lower stat game for Manning.

RUNNING BACKS: Ahmad Bradshaw finally comes off a decent game with 58 yards and a score on ten carries in the Redskins loss but he has yet to be given more than 14 touches since returning in week 13 from a foot injury that won't completely heal. Brandon Jacobs was on a nice string of three games with a touchdown but was held scoreless by the Skins with only eight runs for 33 yards.

The Jets have been weak against the run - on the road. At home, they have allowed only two rushing touchdowns and no runner has topped 88 yards. Splitting the load for the Giants means a down game for both backs. Bradshaw may get a bit more work as a receiver with Ballard probably out but it did not happen last week anyway when Ballard recorded just one catch. I like one of the touchdowns to end up with a back.

WIDE RECEIVERS: The expectation is that Hakeem Nicks is pitted against Darrell Revis though Victor Cruz has been more productive with the lesser attetntion. Nicks has been turning in 70+ yard games for the last month and had a season best 163 yards in Dallas just two weeks ago. Victor Cruz has been less productive in the last two games but was on a nine game tear of 80+ yard efforts with seven scores. Mario Manningham has quietly been effective as well though a definite #3 in this offense.

This is one of the premier secondaries in the league but Manning should see at least limited success against them if only because he has three wideouts and they have two excellent corners. It will be a chess game as to who covers which wideout but in the end there has to be at least one of wideouts with decent stats.

TIGHT ENDS: Jake Ballard has a PCL injury and is not expected to play this week. Travis Beckum is out with a chest injury so there may be no receiving tight end this week.

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM QB RB WR TE PK DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points NYG 7 10 2 14 25 15
Preventing Fantasy Points NYJ 5 14 3 26 23 32


New York Jets
Homefield: Meadowlands Stadium
FieldTurf
  Opp Score   Opp Score
1 DAL 27-24 10 NE 16-37
2 JAC 32-3 11 @DEN 13-17
3 @OAK 24-34 12 BUF 28-24
4 @BAL 17-34 13 @WAS 34-19
5 @NE 21-30 14 KC 37-10
6 MIA 24-6 15 @PHI 19-45
7 SD 27-21 16 NYG -
8 Bye - 17 @MIA -
9 @BUF 27-11      
Jets Report | Statistics | Roster
NY JETS vs NYG Rush Catch Pass
QB Mark Sanchez - - 220,2
RB Shonn Greene 80,1 20 -
TE Dustin Keller - 40 -
WR Plaxico Burress - 50,1 -
WR Jeremy Kerley - 20 -
WR Santonio Holmes - 70,1 -
PK Nick Folk 3 FG 2 XP -

Pregame Notes: Not unlike the Giants, this is a must win game for the Jets who then wrap up the year in Miami on the road. Just when the offense was looking in synch again the loss in Philly derailed the progress but the Giants will be without Osi Umenyiora which should help. This is the Jets final home game and their last chance to control their destiny.

QUARTERBACK: Mark Sanchez has been inconsistent this year - as good as four touchdowns against the Bills or none against the Ravens - but at home he has been the better scorer and has turned in more yardage. He passed for multiple scores in almost every home stand and yet remained sub-200 yards for the last month of "ground and pound". The Giants have weakness against the run to be sure, but they are among the worst defending the pass.

Figure Sanchez as a good risk for a couple of scores here but any yardage above 200 would be out of character, even with the Giants weaker secondary.

RUNNING BACKS: Joe McKnight has been diagnosed with a separated right shoulder and may not play while Shonn Greene has a torn tendon in his pinky finger but is expected to be unlimited this week. Green has rushef for at least 73 yards per game for the last month and usually has a minor role as a receiver. He's also scored four times over the last three games. LaDainian Tomlinson plays a minore role now and while he had a touchdown catch two weeks ago, his yardage has been so insigficant that he's not worthy of projecting anymore.

The Giants have already allowed 12 rushing touchdowns and seven opponents ran for around 100 yards or more. Green won't have a monster game here since he never does anywhere but should have a solid game with upside for a score.

WIDE RECEIVERS: Santonio Holmes has scored in eight games and each of the last four. His yardage is rarely that much and almost never more than around 65 yards but he has been a heavily relied on touchdown catcher in recent weeks and now faces probably the worse secondary next to the Patriots. Plaxico Burress faces his old team for the first time and that should be plenty motivating. I would consider both Holmes and Burress as fantasy starters this week with upsde to score for each.

TIGHT ENDS: Dustin Keller has been hanging out around 40 yards or so in most games with upside for more mostly when they face a divisional opponent. But he has only one score since week two and has very marginal yardage to consider for a fantasy start.

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM QB RB WR TE PK DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points NYJ 13 12 24 16 18 7
Preventing Fantasy Points NYG 28 21 31 25 24 12

WEEK 16
2011
HOU at IND (thu) JAC at TEN OAK at KC STL at PIT
ARI at CIN MIA at NE PHI at DAL TB at CAR
CLE at BAL MIN at WAS SD at DET CHI at GB
  DEN at BUF NYG at NYJ SF at SEA ATL at NO (mon)

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