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Predictions & Projections
David Dorey  

Sortable Player Projections | Game Predictions Summary | Projections by Team

WEEK 16
2011
HOU at IND (thu) * JAC at TEN OAK at KC * STL at PIT
ARI at CIN MIA at NE * PHI at DAL TB at CAR
* CLE at BAL * MIN at WAS * SD at DET * CHI at GB
* UPDATED DEN at BUF * NYG at NYJ * SF at SEA * ATL at NO (mon)

Prediction: OAK 20, KC 17

The Raiders are 7-7 and trail the Broncos by one game with likely no chance for a wild card but have a 4-3 road record. The Chiefs are 6-8 and fresh off beating the previously undefeated Packers with interim HC Romeo Crennel in a classic trap game. This is a replay of week seven when the Chiefs came to Oakland and shutout the Raiders in the lone start by Kyle Boller and in the game that Darren McFadden was injured and last played.

The Raiders are in much better shape now and the Chiefs are bound to be a bit down after such a huge emotional win last week.

Oakland Raiders
Homefield: McAfee Coliseum
Grass
  Opp Score   Opp Score
1 @DEN 23-20 10 @SD 24-17
2 @BUF 35-38 11 @MIN 27-21
3 NYJ 34-24 12 CHI 25-20
4 NE 19-31 13 @MIA 14-34
5 @HOU 25-20 14 @GB 16-46
6 CLE 24-17 15 DET 27-28
7 KC 0-28 16 @KC -
8 Bye - 17 SD -
9 DEN 24-38      
Raiders Report | Statistics | Roster
OAKLAND at KC Rush Catch Pass
QB Carson Palmer - - 250,1
RB Michael Bush 80,1 40 -
TE Kevin Boss - 30,1 -
WR Louis Murphy - 30 -
WR Denarius Moore - 30 -
WR Darrius Heyward-Bey - 80 -
PK Sebastian Janikowski 2 FG 2 XP -
Pregame Notes: The Raiders could not hold their lead last week and allowed the Lions to steal the game at the end and that may end up to be the straw that broke their back. The season started out with promise when Darren McFadden was running lights out on everyone but then he was injured as was Jason Campbell. Once Carson Palmer got up to speed and Michael Bush warmed up, the Raiders have been just as good other than dealing with a perpetually injured set of receivers. If this season does end up with the division it would be a surprise. But at least the Raiders have the offensive pieces for next year - they just have to figure out how to keep them in the game.

QUARTERBACK : Carson Palmer has been a positive addition to the Raiders and easily their best quarterback since probably Rich Gannon but a three game losing streak is covering up any sense of progress. Palmer is also having to deal with a changing set of receivers nearly every week which is also slowing down the team but he has thrown at least one score in all but one start and and has four games at or over 300 yards.

The Chiefs just held Aaron Rodgers to 235 pass yards and one score but over half of their opponents have been able to toss multiple touchdowns. The Chiefs have improved as the season progressed though so anything more than solid yardage and one touchdown is hard to rely on in this road game.

RUNNING BACKS: Darren McFadden is expected to miss his eighth straight game but Michael Bush has been more than serviceable as a replacement. He has scored eight times this year and rushed for over 100 yards twice. In the previous meeting with the Chiefs, Bush gained 99 yards on 17 carries in a game he did not even start.

The Chiefs have been good at home against the run and allowed only three rushing touchdowns and just one game over 100 yards but this is an interdivisional game which does not always follow any script. Bush was already successful against them earlier this year and has a shot at one score and decent yardage.

WIDE RECEIVERS: Jacoby Ford is still not practicing because of his foot and will likely miss this game. Darrius Heyward-Bey comes off the best performance of his career when he caught eight passes for 155 yards and one score against the Lions. DHB turned in five receptions for 89 yards against the Chiefs earlier this year. Denarius Moore returned last week but only came up with two receptions for 13 yards and he was held to only one catch in the previous Chiefs tilt.

The Chiefs are playing better on defense and the Raiders are currently limited to Heyward-Bey as the only reasonably valuable wideout. I like the one passing score to end up with the tight end but DHB should be good for decent yardage in this game. None of the other wideouts merit any consideration.

TIGHT ENDS: Kevin Boss has been a bigger part of the game plan for the last couple of games and brought in over 40 yards per game and scored once. The Chiefs biggest weakness has been against the tight ends and not even elite players that have burned them this year. Boss has not been good for more than around five catches in any game but has a nice shot at his third touchdown on the year. He was held to only one catch for 11 yards in the previous meeting but that was with McFadden getting injured and Kyle Boller starting the game.

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM QB RB WR TE PK DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points OAK 18 4 13 26 14 14
Preventing Fantasy Points KC 17 27 8 28 14 13


Kansas City Chiefs
Homefield: Arrowhead Stadium
Grass
  Opp Score   Opp Score
1 BUF 7-41 10 DEN 10-17
2 @DET 3-48 11 @NE 3-34
3 @SD 17-20 12 PIT 9-13
4 MIN 22-17 13 @CHI 10-3
5 @IND 28-24 14 @NYJ 10-37
6 Bye - 15 GB 19-14
7 @OAK 28-0 16 OAK -
8 SD 23-20 17 @DEN -
9 MIA 3-31      
Chiefs Report | Statistics | Roster
KANSAS CITY vs OAK Rush Catch Pass
QB Kyle Orton - - 240,2
RB Dexter McCluster 30 10 -
RB Jackie Battle 50 - -
RB Thomas Jones 30 - -
TE Leonard Pope - 30 -
WR Jonathan Baldwin - 20 -
WR Steve Breaston - 80,1 -
WR Dwayne Bowe - 70,1 -
PK Ryan Succop 1 FG 2 XP -

Pregame Notes: The remarkable part about the Chiefs beating the Packers is not so much that they were able to pull off a trap game, but that they scored 19 points. The six previous games never produced more than 10 points while the Crennel-inspired defense has been rarely good enough against all but the weakest of teams. The Chiefs are favored and it is the final home game but that inability to produce much offense is where the 2012 season is going to have to improve.

QUARTERBACK: Interim HC Romeo Crennel said that Kyle Orton could be the starting quarterback next year if he wins these final two games. That is a fascinating statement given that Crennel has not been given the HC job yet much less personnel decision making authority. And Orton has only played one game with no touchdowns and that alone has already shelved Matt Cassel apparently.

Orton threw for 299 yards on the Packers but so have a lot of other quarterbacks and he never scored. And it was clearly a trap game. Orton goes against the Raiders this week with another weak secondary and should end up with at least one or two touchdowns and moderate yardage. Cassel only threw for 161 yards and no scores on the Raiders back in week seven.

RUNNING BACKS: While Dexter McCluster has a role every week, he rarely has more than a dozen touches and won't break 50 total yards or score. Jackie Battle gained 76 yards on 16 runs in the previous meeting but that was when the Raiders were imploding because of injury. The Chiefs have only scored three times on the ground all year and none of the running backs have really offered anything more than minimal fantasy value. It would be almost worthwhile with just one back taking all the action but divided into three ruins all fantasy value.

WIDE RECEIVERS: In the first meeting with the Raiders, the lead receivers were Dwayne Bowe (6-76) and Steve Breaston (5-64). In the one start by Kyle "the anointed one" Orton against a weak Packers secondary, Bowe ended with 4-49 and Breaston had a mirror 4-50. This game won't be as easy assuming there is more injuries and Kyle Boller stays on the sideline. But that should result in more use of the wide receivers. I like Bowe for a score in this game but no wideout has topped 100 yards on the visiting Raiders this year. Better stats perhaps but likely not a big game. Bowe and Breaston are lower end fantasy starts for this week.

TIGHT ENDS: One of the reasons the Chiefs beat the Packers was that Leonard Pope turned in 72 yards on two catches which was impressive considering that he had never gained more than 32 yards in any matchup and only totaled 150 yards through the first 14 weeks of the season. No fantasy value beyond the one fluke catch last week.

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM QB RB WR TE PK DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points KC 29 24 21 32 24 23
Preventing Fantasy Points OAK 30 26 28 17 18 27

WEEK 16
2011
HOU at IND (thu) JAC at TEN OAK at KC STL at PIT
ARI at CIN MIA at NE PHI at DAL TB at CAR
CLE at BAL MIN at WAS SD at DET CHI at GB
  DEN at BUF NYG at NYJ SF at SEA ATL at NO (mon)

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