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Predictions & Projections
David Dorey  

Sortable Player Projections | Game Predictions Summary | Projections by Team

WEEK 16
2011
HOU at IND (thu) * JAC at TEN OAK at KC * STL at PIT
ARI at CIN MIA at NE * PHI at DAL TB at CAR
* CLE at BAL * MIN at WAS * SD at DET * CHI at GB
* UPDATED DEN at BUF * NYG at NYJ * SF at SEA * ATL at NO (mon)

Prediction: PHI 31, DAL 27

Update: Felix Jones has not practiced this week and while he has not been ruled out, it is unlikely he will play and the Cowboys called up Chauncey Washington from the practice squad already to help out Sammy Morris. I am removing Jones from the projections because he is too risky to rely on.

The Eagles take their 6-8 record and his the road after decimating the Jets last week and they are 4-3 in road games. The Cowboys are 8-6 and 5-2 at home. This is a replay of week eight when the Eagles obliterated the Cowboys 34-7 in Philly. This game should be much closer and probably goes down to the wire.

Philadelphia Eagles
Homefield: Lincoln Financial Field
Turf
  Opp Score   Opp Score
1 @STL 31-13 10 ARI 17-21
2 @ATL 31-35 11 @NYG 17-10
3 NYG 16-29 12 NE 20-38
4 SF 23-24 13 @SEA 14-31
5 @BUF 24-31 14 @MIA 26-10
6 @WAS 20-13 15 NYJ 45-19
7 Bye - 16 @DAL -
8 DAL 34-7 17 WAS -
9 CHI 24-30      
Eagles Report | Statistics | Roster
PHILADELPHIA at DAL Rush Catch Pass
QB Michael Vick 50 - 280,2
RB LeSean McCoy 110,2 30 -
TE Brent Celek - 50,1 -
WR DeSean Jackson - 60 -
WR Jason Avant - 30 -
WR Jeremy Maclin - 80,1 -
PK Alex Henery 1 FG 4 XP -
Pregame Notes: The Eagles may end up too little , too late but Michael Vick needs to end on a high note after signing a pricey contract and then missing critical games because of injury and simply not displaying the same form that he had last year. LeSean McCoy is on a mission regardless of the standings and has been both an Eagles and a fantasy treasure this year. This week may be as close to the playoffs that the Eagles get. CB Asante Samuel insists he'll be ready for this game after nursing a hamstring.

QUARTERBACK: After waiting 14 weeks, Michael Vick finally ran in a touchdown for the first time this season. He was good for ten just last year including in every one of the final five games. Vick's ribs are said to be fine after two games back and he posted a solid 274 yards and one score over the Jets. Vick passed for 279 yards and two touchdowns in the previous meeting with the Cowboys.

The Cowboys have not allowed more than two passing touchdowns to any opponent this year though the yardage has almost always been very healthy. Look for more of a repeat of the previous game from Vick.

RUNNING BACKS: The Eagles MVP is not hard to decide - LeSean McCoy has already scored 20 touchdowns with only one game that had no score. He's been a supremely consistent and productive player regardless of what the rest of the offense has been doing. McCoy rushed for 185 yards and two scores on the Cowboys in week eight. The Cowboys rush defense has not improved as the season progresses and has allowed three of the last four visitors to feature a runner with 100+ yards. McCoy already has four games with six games with multiple touchdowns.

No reason to avoid McCoy - he's money in the bank this year. The fact that Vick is looking better only makes it harder to key on McCoy.

WIDE RECEIVERS: DeSean Jackson has a bruised elbow that limited him last week to only 28 yards on two catches while dancing with Darrell Revis as well. Jackson was held to just 31 yards on three catches in the previous meeting though last year he was a big time Cowboy killer. Jeremy Maclin is still getting over his hamstring strain but was good for three catches for 57 yards and did not cause any setback. He should be even better this week and was good for 54 yards and a touchdown on three catches in the first meeting. The health of the receivers will be key to the game but barring any unforeseen setbacks they should be good to go.

The Cowboys secondary is nothing special even in a home game. Both wideouts are worth a fantasy start but may not have big games.

TIGHT ENDS: Brent Celek was little used in most of the year but has been much more productive as the season wears on and Vick is back playing. He comes off a career best 156 yards and one score against the Jets and should play at least a minor role in this game if not become a primary receiver depending on the Cowboys coverage and the health of the starting wideouts. He's worth a fantasy start this week with upside for a score.

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM QB RB WR TE PK DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points PHI 8 6 11 15 15 6
Preventing Fantasy Points DAL 14 7 14 22 12 10


Dallas Cowboys
Homefield: Cowboys Stadium
RealGrass
  Opp Score   Opp Score
1 @NYJ 24-27 10 BUF 44-7
2 @SF 27-24 11 @WAS 27-24
3 WAS 18-16 12 MIA 20-19
4 DET 30-34 13 @ARI 13-19
5 Bye - 14 NYG 34-37
6 @NE 16-20 15 @TB 31-15
7 STL 34-7 16 PHI -
8 @PHI 7-34 17 @NYG -
9 SEA 23-13      
Cowboys Report | Statistics | Roster
DALLAS vs PHI Rush Catch Pass
QB Tony Romo - - 310,3
RB Felix Jones 70 30 -
RB Sammy Morris 50 20 -
TE Jason Witten - 50,1 -
WR Laurent Robinson - 100,1 -
WR Dez Bryant - 40,1 -
WR Miles Austin - 50 -
PK Dan Bailey 2 FG 3 XP -

Pregame Notes: The Cowboys still lead the division but the final two games go against the Giants and Eagles who both beat them already. This game should go down to the wire and yet the Cowboys December history of pulling out games is not exactly glowing. The Cowboys have just had a problem matching up with the Eagles even when they were getting beaten by far lesser teams. And the Eagles appear to be better this go around.

QUARTERBACK: Tony Romo had one of his worst games of the year when he was limited to just 203 yards and one touchdown in Philly during week eight. Romo has been less effective when away from home and totaled three games with only one touchdown on the road. At home, he's been much more productive with almost three scores and consistently higher yardage. This is the final home game for Romo and the chance to make up for the week eight fiasco.

The rushing game is likely to be depressed if Felix Jones is not healthy and that means abundant passing. Romo at home has been good and he has a full complement of receivers this time.

RUNNING BACKS: Life without DeMarco Murray has been okay for the last two weeks with Felix Jones rushing for over 100 yards against the Giants and Buccaneers but he still has just one rushing touchdown and that was in the season opener. In week eight, Jones did not play and Murray rushed for 74 yards on eight carries in the blowout loss.

Jones was held out of practice to rest a sore hamstring but I will assume that he can play and update as warranted.

The Eagles are weaker against the run and Jones is at home but he has only one touchdown on the season. Sammy Morris played well enough last week against the ulta-weak Bucs defense but is no second coming of DeMarco Murray.

WIDE RECEIVERS: The Cowboys receivers are all healthy again but all three played in the first meeting with the Eagles. Miles Austin only accounted for 27 yards on three catches while Dez Bryant was held to just 29 yards on three receptions. Laurent Robinson once again played against single coverage and led the team with five catches for 103 yards and one touchdown. Robinson has caught at least one touchdown in seven of the last eight games. Bryant has scored in each of the last three weeks though his yardage had remained around 70 or 80 yards at the highest.

Asante Samuel is supposed to be back from a hamstring strain and Nnamdi Asomugha should match on Dez Bryant again. That just leaves Robinson bad to the same coverage he enjoyed in the last meeting. The Eagles secondary is not as formidable as most believe anyway.

TIGHT ENDS: Jason Witten has not scored in the last four weeks and had seen four of his worst games come in the last six. Witten only produced four catches for 28 yards in Philly this year and has been a bigger factor the easier the matchup is. The rushing is unlikely to be as good this time around and at home Witten should be better than the first go around.

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM QB RB WR TE PK DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points DAL 6 21 5 5 2 16
Preventing Fantasy Points PHI 15 23 18 11 2 24

WEEK 16
2011
HOU at IND (thu) JAC at TEN OAK at KC STL at PIT
ARI at CIN MIA at NE PHI at DAL TB at CAR
CLE at BAL MIN at WAS SD at DET CHI at GB
  DEN at BUF NYG at NYJ SF at SEA ATL at NO (mon)

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