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FANTASY FOOTBALL IN-SEASON FEATURES

Predictions & Projections
David Dorey  

Sortable Player Projections | Game Predictions Summary | Projections by Team

WEEK 16
2011
HOU at IND (thu) * JAC at TEN OAK at KC * STL at PIT
ARI at CIN MIA at NE * PHI at DAL TB at CAR
* CLE at BAL * MIN at WAS * SD at DET * CHI at GB
* UPDATED DEN at BUF * NYG at NYJ * SF at SEA * ATL at NO (mon)

Prediction: SF 20, SEA 13

Update: Doug Baldwin was limited in practice on Wednesday and then suffered a setback and was held out on Thursday and Friday because of his ankle. I am removing him from the projections because of the risk.

The 11-3 49ers served notice to the NFL with a 20-3 punking of the Pittsburgh Steelers on Monday night and now travel to play the 7-7 Seahawks. This is a replay of the season opener when the 49ers won 33-17 and we were not yet aware of what a bad ass defense was in the making.

San Francisco 49ers
Homefield: Monster Park
Grass
  Opp Score   Opp Score
1 SEA 33-17 10 NYG 27-20
2 DAL 24-27 11 ARI 23-7
3 @CIN 13-8 12 @BAL 6-16
4 @PHI 24-23 13 STL 26-0
5 TB 48-3 14 @ARI 19-21
6 @DET 25-19 15 PIT 20-3
7 Bye - 16 @SEA -
8 CLE 20-10 17 @STL -
9 @WAS 19-11      
49ers Report | Statistics | Roster
SAN FRANCISCO at SEA Rush Catch Pass
QB Alex Smith - - 190,1
RB Frank Gore 70,1 10 -
RB Kendall Hunter 20 10 -
TE Vernon Davis - 40,1 -
WR Kyle Williams - 40 -
WR Michael Crabtree - 60 -
PK David Akers 2 FG 2 XP -
Pregame Notes: The 49ers have long clinched the division but thanks to the 11-3 Saints have to play every week to see who gets the valuable #2 seed. The 49ers end up with two road games but against interdivisional rivals they have already beaten rather easily.

QUARTERBACK: Alex Smith has certainly played better than in any of his five previous seasons but he still has only thrown for 15 touchdowns and totaled just 2565 passing yards in this season of 4000 yard QB's everywhere. But he only has five interceptions and is mostly a game manager with that terrific defense and Frank Gore to rely on. Smith passed for just 124 yards and no scores in the first meeting with the Seahawks though he did add his only rushing touchdown of the year.

This week figure on a safe one passing touchdown and moderate yardage.

RUNNING BACKS: Frank Gore was held to only 59 yards on 22 carries in the season opener but recall he had a slow start to the season in the new offense before catching fire in week four. But Gore has been slowed again for the last five games and the 49ers want to reduce his workload since they are actually going to the playoffs. Gore scored in the last two games and was up to 18 carries for 65 yards against the Steelers just last week.

The Seahawks are solid against the run this year with only seven touchdowns allowed to runners but this is a divisional game and the 49ers defense is hitting on all cylinders. That should mean good field position, less yardage and a good shot at a touchdown.

WIDE RECEIVERS: The best wideout in the first meeting with the Seahawks was Braylon Edwards who has been benched as of last week because he has just not been a factor in almost any game. His last three games had nine passes and just one catch. Michael Crabtree only managed one catch for four yards in that first game but has been very productive down the stretch and has been good for around 50 to 70 yards in almost every game. Crabtree has just two scores though and both were at home. Kyle Williams has been the biggest surprise though his yardage is moderate at best and he too has just three touchdowns and all were in home games. Add in Ted Ginn and you still have the #30 group of wideouts.

The only reliable part of the wideouts is Crabtree and his 50 to 70 yards each week. That's barely WR3 material if that.

TIGHT ENDS: Vernon Davis opened the season with 47 yards on five catches when the Seahawks visited. He has scored six times but only one came in a road game. He did lead the receivers with 72 yards on six receptions against the Steelers though his three previous games were all sub-40 yard efforts with no scores. Davis could do more but anything more than 40 yards is a risk to rely on and the Seahawks are better than most against the position. I'll credit him with the score mostly as a place holder.

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM QB RB WR TE PK DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points SF 27 17 30 8 1 5
Preventing Fantasy Points SEA 9 10 5 18 11 25


Seattle Seahawks
Homefield: Qwest Field
FieldTurf
  Opp Score   Opp Score
1 @SF 17-33 10 BAL 22-17
2 @PIT 0-24 11 @STL 24-7
3 ARI 13-10 12 WAS 17-23
4 ATL 28-30 13 PHI 31-14
5 @NYG 36-25 14 STL 30-13
6 Bye - 15 @CHI 38-14
7 @CLE 3-6 16 SF -
8 CIN 12-34 17 @ARI -
9 @DAL 13-23      
Seahawks Report | Statistics | Roster
SEATTLE vs SF Rush Catch Pass
QB Tarvaris Jackson - - 190,1
RB Marshawn Lynch 60 10 -
WR Doug Baldwin - 60,1 -
WR Golden Tate - 50 -
WR Ben Obamanu - 30 -
PK Steven Hauschka 2 FG 1 XP -

Pregame Notes: This is the final home game for the season and when it all is boiled down, the result has been that Marshawn Lynch has been a shockingly good retread runner and that there may be some promise to the wideouts but with Tarvaris Jackson it may never really be known. The Seattle defense has been good - underrated even. And the running game has caught fire but this team still need to invest in a franchise quarterback.

QUARTERBACK: Tarvaris Jackson opened the season with 197 yards and two scores in San Francisco, along with two lost fumbles and an interception. Jackson currently has 12 touchdowns on the season versus 12 interceptions and four lost fumbles. Aside from one freak game against the Falcons, Jackson struggles to pass 200 yards each week and has note scored in five different games.

Figure on the same Jackson this week only more likely to remain with one touchdown. He's thrown for two in only one of nine recent games.

RUNNING BACKS: This started out as just another committee backfield with has-been's and never-were's. Marshawn Lynch rushed for only 33 yards on 13 carries in San Francisco. He came to life a month later and now has scored in ten straight games and recorded five 100+ rushing yard efforts. Maybe it is the water in Seattle or whatever, but Lynch has suddenly "got it" in his fifth season on his second team. His second year on the Seahawks no less.

Now he faces the #1 defense against running backs. The 49ers have not allowed any running back to rush in a score. Not one. No running back has gained more than 64 yards on the 49ers. Something has to give and I'm picking Lynch's streak of touchdowns. With both Sidney Rice and Mike Williams gone, the 49ers will key heavily on Lynch.

WIDE RECEIVERS: Mike Williams lands on injured reserve with a fractured left ankle and fibula. That now leaves Ben Obamanu with his one catch per game, Doug Baldwin who has been a genuine surprise this year with 50+ yards in most recent games and Golden Tate who is being very hyped for a guy with only one game over 47 yards and just two scores on the year.

There is no fantasy play here though one touchdown pass is likely to end up here. Baldwin is the best bet but no sure thing.

TIGHT ENDS: No fantasy value.

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM QB RB WR TE PK DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points SEA 28 15 16 30 32 8
Preventing Fantasy Points SF 13 1 21 5 1 1

WEEK 16
2011
HOU at IND (thu) JAC at TEN OAK at KC STL at PIT
ARI at CIN MIA at NE PHI at DAL TB at CAR
CLE at BAL MIN at WAS SD at DET CHI at GB
  DEN at BUF NYG at NYJ SF at SEA ATL at NO (mon)

a d v e r t i s e m e n t