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Predictions & Projections
David Dorey  

Sortable Player Projections | Game Predictions Summary | Projections by Team

WEEK 16
2011
HOU at IND (thu) * JAC at TEN OAK at KC * STL at PIT
ARI at CIN MIA at NE * PHI at DAL TB at CAR
* CLE at BAL * MIN at WAS * SD at DET * CHI at GB
* UPDATED DEN at BUF * NYG at NYJ * SF at SEA * ATL at NO (mon)

Prediction: STL 0, PIT 24

Update: Ben Roethlisberger is not expected to play and that lowers the numbers all across the board. Steelers won't have a problem winning this game so whatever happens is hard to call beyond Mendenhall should have a good game and I still like Hines Ward to score in what may be his final home game.

This could be a legendary trap game but would require that all Steelers players eat bad mexican food about an hour before kickoff. The Rams are 2-12 and on a five game losing streak with a 1-6 road mark. The Steelers just got spanked in San Francisco and are maybe not that jovial despite the season. Locked at 10-4 with the Ravens and having no tie breaker, they have to hope that there are bad burritos in Baltimore or it is a wild card ticket this year.

St. Louis Rams
Homefield: Edward Jones Dome
FieldTurf
  Opp Score   Opp Score
1 PHI 13-31 10 @CLE 13-12
2 @NYG 16-28 11 SEA 7-24
3 BAL 7-37 12 ARI 20-23
4 WAS 10-17 13 @SF 0-26
5 Bye - 14 @SEA 13-30
6 @GB 3-24 15 CIN 13-20
7 @DAL 7-34 16 @PIT -
8 NO 31-21 17 SF -
9 @ARI 13-19      
Rams Report | Statistics | Roster
ST. LOUIS at PIT Rush Catch Pass
QB Kellen Clemens - - 160
RB Steven Jackson 50 20 -
TE Lance Kendricks - 20 -
WR Brandon Lloyd - 50 -
PK Josh Brown 0 FG 0 XP -
Pregame Notes: Here's what I am thinking. It is really late (2:31 AM) and I leave the stupid games until the last. How is this not a shutout? The Rams have five games with just one score or none. Steelers are ticked off after losing 3-20 in San Francisco and this is their last home game probably for the year if they get the wildcard. And if I call it a shut out, then I do not have to figure out where to wedge a score on this God awful team. Have to think Brandon Lloyd sits at home and just whacks himself in the head with his shoe for getting traded here.

QUARTERBACK: Sam Bradford is not expected to play again this season because he is not an idiot and it is better to fake a limp than go out and get butchered by the Steelers and 49ers. A.J. Feeley tells everyone his thumb hurts. Heck yeah, let Kellen Clemens get clobbered in Pittsburgh. Everyone is happy.

If I have to explain why you would NEVER want to start Kellen Clemens here, I want to play in everyone of your leagues, at least the ones with a cash prize. The Steelers rank #1 against QB's and the Rams are #31. It's like shooting sporting clays using basketballs instead of skeet.

The Rams have a total of eight passing touchdowns. Bradford is just waiting for the new coaches next year. "Hey Kellen! Go get 'em buddy!... hehehe."

RUNNING BACKS: I like Steven Jackson. Big old predator looking dude that has languished on a team where he was the only decent player. He's like Maurice Jones-Drew only with an even worse defense. The Steelers have only allowed two rushing scores at home and no one has topped 100 yards there. I am sorry you have your championship with Jackson in Pittsburgh but I warned you back last summer in the rankings. What did you think was going to happen?

Again - great player. Figure no more than around 70 total yards and you should be buying him a Christmas present for doing that much for you. Against the Steelers, man. Jackson is a big guy but getting hit by Troy Polamalu is like standing on home plate while Albert Pujols takes batting practice. You ever been hit by a bat? Huh? Me either but I bet it really hurts. Got sucker punched by some short dude once. Man - that hurts like hell. No way you just act like it was nothing. Honest - feels LIKE A BASEBALL BAT hit you. Saw stars and everything. Black eye but that was kind of cool in High School.

Anyway, congrats on reaching your championship with Jackson. Now suck it up, Skeeter. It is PIT and they were there on the schedule since last April.

WIDE RECEIVERS: Really? You think in week 16 of one of the worst passing attacks in the world and there is anything new to report? Here let me run it down for you. Brandon Gibson - complete waste. Brandon Lloyd - hitting himself in the head with his shoe for being in St. Louis and the only person who understands the offense and that includes Sam Bradford. Danario Alexander - you picked him up after the 122 yards in week two? How long did it take to drop him? He's just a walking medical experiment to see how long before a knee just plain disintegrates and he has to drag his lower leg around. He has exactly three good plays in him every season. Austin Pettis - still thinks this is just practice and not a real game. No other way to describe how you play a whole season and never score or have more than 43 yards.

You'd think eventually someone here would catch a deep pass. Even one that caromed off two defenders first and then the safety slipped. You would be wrong, amigo. It is a gridiron wasteland here and I spend every week trying to get some lipstick on this pig.

#2 secondary os just waiting to greet Brandon Lloyd and ask him why he has a big heel mark on his forehead.

TIGHT ENDS: Not a single freaking touchdown all year. One lost fumble by Lance "Code Red" Kendricks. I even learned how to spell and pronounce Hoomanawanui for NOTHING.

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM QB RB WR TE PK DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points STL 31 28 26 29 31 21
Preventing Fantasy Points PIT 1 6 2 10 3 14

 

Pittsburgh Steelers
Homefield: Heinz Field
Grass
  Opp Score   Opp Score
1 @BAL 7-35 10 @CIN 24-17
2 SEA 24-0 11 Bye -
3 @IND 23-20 12 @KC 13-9
4 @HOU 10-17 13 CIN 35-7
5 TEN 38-17 14 CLE 14-3
6 JAC 17-13 15 @SF 3-20
7 @ARI 32-20 16 STL -
8 NE 25-17 17 @CLE -
9 BAL 20-23      
Steelers Report | Statistics | Roster
PITTSBURGH vs STL Rush Catch Pass
QB Ben Roethlisberger - - 200,2
QB Charlie Batch - - 180,1
RB Rashard Mendenhall 90,1 - -
TE Heath Miller - 20 -
WR Antonio Brown - 40 -
WR Hines Ward - 30,1 -
WR Mike Wallace - 50 -
PK Shaun Suisham 1 FG 3 XP -

Pregame Notes: The Steelers get the Christmas present of hosting the Rams this week and this is probably the final home game. I'd like to think that the Steelers would go postal on the Rams and roll up the score like the Patriots but that rarely happens and it is not going to require a lot to win this game. There is no guarantee that Big Ben even makes it to the end. The final two games are going to be wins for the Steelers and 12-4 means post season play. But a wild card means no resting and road games all the way.

I like a defensive score here. Maybe four or five.

QUARTERBACK: Ben Roethlisberger has scored in all but one game and has been more productive in home games this year. But the Rams are not going to put up much fight here and there is a chance that even Rashard Mendenhall could look like a true primary back this week. Expect moderate yardage and maybe a couple of scores that will secure the win but there is no reason for him to throw more than 20 to 25 passes.

RUNNING BACKS: Rashard Mendenhall bruised his ribs in San Francisco and that could impact him in this dream matchup but I will assume he can play with no real limitation. it's not like the Rams are going to be bashing into him like the 49ers anyway. You'd think this would be a lock for big yards and a score but Mendenhall only managed 76 yards on 18 runs when the Browns visited two weeks ago. Mendenhall only has one game over 76 rushing yards which should make old-timer Steeler fans use their Terrible Towels to wipe the tears from their eyes.

Mendy is a strong play this week but not nearly as good as the matchup indicates. Isaac Redman will be involved as well. Parting shot - polled the listeners to our radio show Cowbell Thursday Night on SiruisXM and Mendenhall was the most often named player that people refused to ever draft again. I miss Bettis. Did you know he likes to bowl? Seems like a cool dude.

WIDE RECEIVERS: So the Rams show up with the #27 secondary. The Steelers could rack up a ton of yardage and scores here but they won't. But you have to like two things in this game. First - have to love Mike Wallace at home against a secondary that has allowed ten scores to wideout in just seven road games. Wallace has not had more than 55 yards in a month and this should cure that. Again - maybe not a monster game but should post good stats and score. Antonio Brown had 151 yards and a score in the last home game (CLE) so he's not needing a feeding. Second - Hines Ward turns 36 next February. How long is he going to play? He only has 37 catches for 325 yards on the year. This is a final home game for the year and maybe for his career if he opts to retire. That means a score almost seems mandatory if only because they can.

Anytime a weak team shows up like this, almost anything can happen because the offense can do almost anything it wants. Have to like Wallace and Ward scoring this week but it depends on what the Steelers want to do.

TIGHT ENDS: Heath Miller comes off a strong effort of five catches for 82 yards in San Francisco and that reverses the last four weeks where he never gained more than 31 yards. Miller comes into play against the better defenses, definitely not the Rams.

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM QB RB WR TE PK DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points PIT 12 22 3 19 21 27
Preventing Fantasy Points STL 8 28 27 1 17 31

WEEK 16
2011
HOU at IND (thu) JAC at TEN OAK at KC STL at PIT
ARI at CIN MIA at NE PHI at DAL TB at CAR
CLE at BAL MIN at WAS SD at DET CHI at GB
  DEN at BUF NYG at NYJ SF at SEA ATL at NO (mon)

a d v e r t i s e m e n t