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FANTASY FOOTBALL IN-SEASON FEATURES

Predictions & Projections
David Dorey  

Sortable Player Projections | Game Predictions Summary | Projections by Team

WEEK 16
2011
HOU at IND (thu) * JAC at TEN OAK at KC * STL at PIT
ARI at CIN MIA at NE * PHI at DAL TB at CAR
* CLE at BAL * MIN at WAS * SD at DET * CHI at GB
* UPDATED DEN at BUF * NYG at NYJ * SF at SEA * ATL at NO (mon)

Prediction: TB 13, CAR 34

The Buccaneers are 4-10 and still going strong on their eight game losing streak. The Panthers are just 5-9 but 3-1 in the most recent games. The Panthers are excited because they are favored by 7.5 points in a game. This is a replay of week 13 when the Panthers won 38-19.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Homefield: Raymond James Stadium
Grass
  Opp Score   Opp Score
1 DET 20-27 10 HOU 9-37
2 @MIN 24-20 11 @GB 26-35
3 ATL 16-13 12 @TEN 17-23
4 IND 24-17 13 CAR 19-38
5 @SF 3-48 14 @JAC 14-41
6 NO 26-20 15 DAL 15-31
7 CHI 18-24 16 @CAR -
8 Bye - 17 @ATL -
9 @NO 16-27      
Buccaneers Report | Statistics | Roster
TAMPA BAY at CAR Rush Catch Pass
QB Josh Freeman - - 200,1
RB LeGarrette Blount 50 - -
TE Kellen Winslow Jr. - 40 -
WR Preston Parker - 30 -
WR Mike Williams - 70 -
WR Dezmon Briscoe - 30,1 -
PK Conner Barth 2 FG 1 XP -

Pregame Notes: It just gets worse for the beleaguered Bucs with CB Aqib Talib landing on injured reserve. The Bucs have allowed over 30 points in five of their last six games while breaking 20 points only once. The Bucs have managed to score in double digits almost every week but the defense is so bad by now that games are not even remotely competitive.

QUARTERBACK: The disappointing season trudges on for Josh Freeman who was held to only 148 yards and one score against the Cowboys on Saturday. Freeman has only passed for 13 touchdowns this season against 18 interceptions. Freeman was injured the week that the Panthers came to Tampa Bay and Josh Johnson threw for 229 yards and one score in that game.

That's seems upper end even against the Panthers.

RUNNING BACKS : LeGarrette Blount has been average at best this year with only five touchdowns and three efforts that topped 100 rushing yards. But he is almost never used as a receiver and his matchup with the Panthers in week 13 only saw him gain 19 yards on 11 runs in the blowout loss. Blount has been inconsistent this year and yet on occasion runs well.

The Panthers have been very weak on the run but mostly in away games and the Bucs only managed 19 yards from Blount that week. At 5-9 on the year, the Bucs are not likely to show much mercy. Figure on marginal improvement from Blount but the season is dragging him and the running game down. What would have seemed like a dream matchup a month or two ago now is just another game for Blount.

WIDE RECEIVERS: The season winds down and Mike Williams has been the only receiver with any fantasy value thanks to a three game streak of 80+ yard games but he only managed 35 yards in Jacksonville and then was blanked against the Cowboys for the first time this year. Williams had a season best 93 yards on five catches in the previous meeting with the Panthers. No other wideout here is remotely worthy of any fantasy start. Arrelious Benn may return from his concussion but was only worth 47 yards in the first meeting.

TIGHT ENDS: Kellen Winslow Jr has been even less productive than usual and rarely has more than 40 yards in any game. and has only two touchdowns on the season. Winslow was held to only 41 yards on four catches in the last meeting with the Panthers but that is about his average.

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM QB RB WR TE PK DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points TB 15 30 20 21 19 22
Preventing Fantasy Points CAR 20 31 12 16 29 17


Carolina Panthers
Homefield: Bank of America Stadium
Grass
  Opp Score   Opp Score
1 @ARI 21-28 10 TEN 3-30
2 GB 23-30 11 @DET 35-49
3 JAC 16-10 12 @IND 27-19
4 @CHI 29-34 13 @TB 38-19
5 NO 27-30 14 ATL 23-31
6 @ATL 17-31 15 @HOU 28-13
7 WAS 33-20 16 TB -
8 MIN 21-24 17 @NO -
9 Bye -      
Panthers Report | Statistics | Roster
CAROLINA vs TB Rush Catch Pass
QB Cam Newton 50,2 - 210,1
RB DeAngelo Williams 50,1 - -
RB Jonathan Stewart 40 20 -
TE Greg Olsen - 20 -
TE Jeremy Shockey - 20 -
WR Brandon LaFell - 50 -
WR Steve Smith - 50,1 -
WR Legedu Naanee - 40 -
PK Olindo Mare 2 FG 4 XP -

Pregame Notes: The Panthers are still trying to decide on who the kicker will be between Olindo Mare and Adi Kunalic so be aware the risk there. This is the final home game for the Panthers and winning three of the last four has made the season feel much more like progress was made. A win here sends the season ticket holders away with a good feeling and looking forward to next year. Ending the season in New Orleans probably not so good of a feeling.

QUARTERBACK: Cam Newton already had his monster game in the last meeting with the Buccaneers when he passed for 204 yards and one score and also added three rushing touchdowns on his 14 runs for 54 yards. Newton has not ran in a score for two games now and the Bucs bring in the last chance to bury the rushing touchdown record for Newton.

RUNNING BACKS: DeAngelo Williams only gained 28 yards on 11 runs in Tampa Bay but then scored in the next two games and had at last 61 rushing yards or more. That's almost worthy of a fantasy start. Jonathan Stewart ran 14 times for 80 yards and a touchdown in that game but then has been held to fewer than 45 yards in these last two games.

One of the backs have a great chance to score this week but it will always be risky to rely on just one when both will share the workload. I'll credit the touchdown to Williams just to put it somewhere.

WIDE RECEIVERS: Steve Smith was held to only 32 yards on two catches in the last meeting with the Bucs but the need to throw was minimal and not likely to be any greater this week. Legedu Naanee ended up with the touchdown on his two catches for 38 yards for his only score on the season. Brandon LaFell enjoyed one of his best games in week 13 when he ended with 64 yards on three receptions.

Consider Smith a marginal start this week. They won't need him but it is a final home game and he's as likely as any to score.

TIGHT ENDS: Both tight ends were held to just one catch for around 20 yards in the previous meeting with the Bucs and there will be even less reason to want to throw this week. No reliable fantasy value here.

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM QB RB WR TE PK DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points CAR 3 23 17 3 20 28
Preventing Fantasy Points TB 26 32 19 21 25 26

WEEK 16
2011
HOU at IND (thu) JAC at TEN OAK at KC STL at PIT
ARI at CIN MIA at NE PHI at DAL TB at CAR
CLE at BAL MIN at WAS SD at DET CHI at GB
  DEN at BUF NYG at NYJ SF at SEA ATL at NO (mon)

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