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Predictions & Projections
David Dorey  

Sortable Player Projections | Game Predictions Summary | Projections by Team

WEEK 17
2011
BAL at CIN * DAL at NYG * NYJ at MIA SF at STL
* BUF at NE DET at GB PIT at CLE TB at ATL
CAR at NO * IND at JAC * SD at OAK * TEN at HOU
* UPDATED CHI at MIN * KC at DEN SEA at ARI * WAS at PHI

Prediction: BAL 20, CIN 17

The Ravens are 11-4 and only need a win here to secure the #2 seed and a first round bye. Problem is that they are only 3-4 in road games this year and the Bengals need to win in order to lock up a wild card spot and not fall into tie-breakers with possibly a couple of other teams. The Bengals are 4-3 in home games. This is a replay of week 11 when the Ravens won 31-24 in Baltimore. This is a game that is important and could go a number of ways. The Ravens poor road record only makes this more interesting.

Baltimore Ravens
Homefield: M&T Bank Stadium
Sport Turf
  Opp Score   Opp Score
1 PIT 35-7 10 @SEA 17-22
2 @TEN 13-26 11 CIN 31-24
3 @STL 37-7 12 SF 16-6
4 NYJ 34-17 13 @CLE 24-10
5 Bye - 14 IND 24-10
6 HOU 29-14 15 @SD 14-34
7 @JAC 7-9 16 CLE 20-14
8 ARI 30-27 17 @CIN -
9 @PIT 23-20   - -
Ravens Report | Statistics | Roster
BALTIMORE at CIN Rush Catch Pass
QB Joe Flacco - - 200,1
RB Ray Rice 70,1 40 -
TE Ed Dickson - 20,1 -
WR Lee Evans - 20 -
WR Torrey Smith - 90 -
PK Billy Cundiff 2 FG 2 XP -

Pregame Notes: The Ravens have been undefeated at home - no question they are a force to reckon with when in Baltimore. But away? They do not even have a winning record but the oddity within that is they have swept their division other than this coming game regardless of venue. The Ravens should be just good enough to notch this win and that gets them a a first round bye and a home game in the second round. The problem will come in the Championship game that would likely be held in New England.

Billy Cundiff is expected to kick this week after allowing Shayne Graham to take his place last week.

QUARTERBACK: Joe Flacco passed for 270 yards and two scores in Cincinnati this year and that was his second best game of the year. Flacco has been little more than average in most matchups and currently has 3480 yards and 19 touchdowns against 12 interceptions. Not bad, certainly not much more than average. This time around should be a much more defensive game and Flacco heads to where visitors have never throw for more than than two scores.

Expect a score and average yardage from Flacco and be thrilled if he gets two touchdowns. He has been on a three game streak of two scores but against much weaker teams. Plus Anquan Boldin remains out.

RUNNING BACKS: Ray Rice has been the main focus of the offense and in Cincy ran for 104 yards and two scores with 43 more yards on five catches. Rice has been less effective in road games but when facing a divisional opponent has always scored. The Bengals served up one of the five 100+ rushing yard games for Rice already and he's a dual threat who almost always manages 100 total yards including his reception work. Rice is a must start anyway as one of the truly elite backs.

The Bengals have not allowed any visiting runner to gain more than 67 yards but Rice should challenge that mark.

WIDE RECEIVERS: Anquan Boldin remains out from his knee surgery and even in the first meeting, he only accounted for one catch that became a 35-yard touchdown. Torrey Smith went off in that game, rolling up 165 yards and a score on just six receptions. Last week without Boldin saw the Ravens mainly just run against the Browns and only Smith (2-38) had any receptions. That needs to be higher this week but only Smith will carry any fantasy potential into this game. He become a moderate play since the tight ends will likely also take up any slack. Tandon Doss will also play and yet be of no consequence yet again.

TIGHT ENDS: Ed Dickson was held to just 21 yards on two catches versus the Bengals in week 11. But he has been used more in road games this season and has scored in both of the last two games. He's a very low end start for tight end though.

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM QB RB WR TE PK DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points BAL 24 5 28 11 7 6
Preventing Fantasy Points CIN 8 11 17 8 5 6


Cincinnati Bengals
Homefield: Paul Brown Stadium
FieldTurf
  Opp Score   Opp Score
1 @CLE 27-17 10 PIT 17-24
2 @DEN 22-24 11 @BAL 24-31
3 SF 8-13 12 CLE 23-20
4 BUF 23-20 13 @PIT 7-35
5 @JAC 30-20 14 HOU 19-20
6 IND 27-17 15 @STL 20-13
7 Bye - 16 ARI 23-16
8 @SEA 34-12 17 BAL -
9 @TEN 24-17      
Bengals Report | Statistics | Roster
CINCINNATI vs BAL Rush Catch Pass
QB Andy Dalton - - 240,1
RB Cedric Benson 40,1 - -
TE Jermaine Gresham - 50 -
WR A.J. Green - 80,1 -
WR Jerome Simpson - 40 -
PK Mike Nugent 1 FG 2 XP -

Pregame Notes: The Bengals could lose this game and still be in the mix for a wild card but a win makes it all much easier and let's the Bengals determine their own fate. The problem on this side is that the team has not been as good in the second half of the season and mostly because the rookie Andy Dalton slowed down from an excellent start to the year. This would be a great statement game for the Bengals and it is at home.

QUARTERBACK: Andy Dalton set his personal best in passing yardage when he threw for 373 yards and one score in Baltimore in week 11. But that game also represented a peak for Dalton who left a string of multiple score games to only post five touchdowns over the last five matchups. He has also been held to fewer than 190 pass yards in each of the last four games. Dalton has been already been a wild success as a rookie with 3166 yards and 20 touchdowns but has slowed down with a tougher schedule.

The Ravens have never allowed more than one passing score to any opponent this year. Unlikely that Dalton breaks that string.

RUNNING BACKS: Cedric Benson has been playing on a one year contract and is almost certain to be sent packing next year. He only rushed for 41 yards on 15 carries in the last meeting with the Ravens but had a freakish two touchdowns. Benson only has a total of six scores over 15 games. There is no change here - as always he is a low-end fantasy start who should end up with moderate rushing yardage at best and almost no receptions.

WIDE RECEIVERS: A.J. Green has already broken the 1000 yard mark as a rookie (63-1031) and scored seven times though he did not play in the previous matchup with the Ravens. Andre Caldwell gained his season best 63 yards and a score on three catches in that game while Jerome Simpson caught two passes for 38 yards. Simpson was the highlight reel last week with his full somersault in the air over a defender and then landing on both feet in the endzone.

A passing score is most likely to end up here and that would favor Green as the fastest and most targeted. This is not a great matchup for him but

TIGHT ENDS: Jermaine Gresham rarely has a big game but has been good enough for 30 or 40 yards in most matchups and caught three passes for 48 yards on the Ravens earlier this season. He scored six times but is more reliable for just the moderate yardage every week.

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM QB RB WR TE PK DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points CIN 22 28 15 18 8 11
Preventing Fantasy Points BAL 2 3 7 2 4 20

WEEK 17
2011
BAL at CIN DAL at NYG NYJ at MIA SF at STL
BUF at NE DET at GB PIT at CLE TB at ATL
CAR at NO IND at JAC SD at OAK TEN at HOU
  CHI at MIN KC at DEN SEA at ARI WAS at PHI

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