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FANTASY FOOTBALL IN-SEASON FEATURES

Predictions & Projections
David Dorey  

Sortable Player Projections | Game Predictions Summary | Projections by Team

WEEK 17
2011
BAL at CIN * DAL at NYG * NYJ at MIA SF at STL
* BUF at NE DET at GB PIT at CLE TB at ATL
CAR at NO * IND at JAC * SD at OAK * TEN at HOU
* UPDATED CHI at MIN * KC at DEN SEA at ARI * WAS at PHI

Prediction: NYJ 20, MIA 16

Update: Reggie Bush is out of the finale due to his knee and that really hurts the Fins chances in this game.

The Jets need a lot of help to reach the playoffs so they'll go into this game as mostly playing for pride which is needed after getting whooped by the Giants in a "must win" game. The Dolphins are actually favored in this game with good efforts in recent weeks but it comes down to the Jets defense being better than the Fins offense. The previous wins and near wins by the Fins were against weak defenses, particularly secondaries.

New York Jets
Homefield: Meadowlands Stadium
FieldTurf
  Opp Score   Opp Score
1 DAL 27-24 10 NE 16-37
2 JAC 32-3 11 @DEN 13-17
3 @OAK 24-34 12 BUF 28-24
4 @BAL 17-34 13 @WAS 34-19
5 @NE 21-30 14 KC 37-10
6 MIA 24-6 15 @PHI 19-45
7 SD 27-21 16 NYG 14-29
8 Bye - 17 @MIA -
9 @BUF 27-11      
Jets Report | Statistics | Roster
NY JETS at MIA Rush Catch Pass
QB Mark Sanchez - - 190,2
RB Shonn Greene 50 20 -
RB LaDainian Tomlinson 20 20 -
TE Dustin Keller - 50 -
WR Plaxico Burress - 30,1 -
WR Jeremy Kerley - 20 -
WR Santonio Holmes - 50,1 -
PK Nick Folk 2 FG 2 XP -
Pregame Notes: The year is not ending well and each time it appeared the Jets were pulling themselves back up they would lose another important game. Now HC Rex Ryan spends part of every Monday explaining how Mark Sanchez is still the starting quarterback. The Jets are no road warriors to be sure, but this week is when using Darrell Revis counts big since the Fins only have one decent receiver.

QUARTERBACK: Mark Sanchez. passed for 201 yards and one score in the previous matchup with the Fins and also ran in one touchdown as well. It was one of only two games this year where he had no turnovers.

The Dolphins at home are better against the pass though nearly everyone has well over 200 yards and a score on them there. Four of the last five games by Sanchez had fewer than 200 yards as well so expect just another moderate showing.

RUNNING BACKS: Shonn Greene is a perfect representative for the Jets this year. At times, he has been dominating in games with as many as three touchdowns or 129 yards. In others, he's been inexplicably lethargic and unable to make anything happen. Greene has only scored in four different games and topped 100 yards in only two tilts. Greene rushed for 74 yards on 21 carries when the Dolphins visited back in week six.

LaDainian Tomlinson only total 46 yards in that game as well and that's been high side for a one-time great who is clearly slowing down to the end of his career. Tomlinson has remained below fantasy relevance all year while Greene barely merits it in most games.

The Fins are #5 against running backs and Greene could not get three yards per carry in the home version. Expect a lower effort from Greene to end his year.

WIDE RECEIVERS: For a season that seemed poised to be pass-heavy, it just never materialized despite having many big names on the roster. Plaxico Burress scored eight times this year but only turned in over 65 yards twice and never more than 79 yards. Burress was not above the bad game either with a blank in week 14 versus the Chiefs and only one catch for 16 yards versus these Dolphins in week six. Santonio Holmes also scored eight times without ever topping the 100 yard mark but he did score once in the previous meeting with the Dolphins when he caught three passes for 63 yards.

The weakness of the Dolphins lies in their secondary so whatever the Jets can accomplish will go through here. Holmes is a strong play and Burress is marginal but with upside.

TIGHT ENDS: Dustin Keller has only scored in one game since the second week of the season but he has remained a significant part of the passing effort and comes off two straight weeks with more than 70 yards. Keller accounted for 51 yards on two receptions in the first meeting with the Fins and that should be a good starting point for this game as well.

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM QB RB WR TE PK DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points NYJ 12 14 24 16 23 8
Preventing Fantasy Points MIA 24 5 24 15 16 17


Miami Dolphins
Homefield: Dolphins Stadium
Grass
  Opp Score   Opp Score
1 NE 24-38 10 WAS 20-9
2 HOU 13-23 11 BUF 35-8
3 @CLE 16-17 12 @DAL 19-20
4 @SD 16-26 13 OAK 34-14
5 Bye - 14 PHI 10-26
6 @NYJ 6-24 15 @BUF 30-23
7 DEN 15-18 16 @NE 24-27
8 @NYG 17-20 17 NYJ -
9 @KC 31-3      
Dolphins Report | Statistics | Roster
MIAMI vs NYJ Rush Catch Pass
QB Matt Moore - - 210
RB Reggie Bush 100,1 20 -
RB Daniel Thomas 30 - -
WR Brandon Marshall - 60 -
WR Brian Hartline - 40 -
WR Davone Bess - 40 -
PK Dan Carpenter 3 FG 1 XP -

Pregame Notes: The Dolphins get to hunt for a new head coach in the offseason and this final home game is the last audition for whatever is coming up next year. The passing effort never really materialized unless facing a very weak defense and even then only Brandon Marshall has mattered. But Reggie Bush has been a genuine surprise and helped the team finish top ten for running back stats. The problem this week as in the first game - tough to throw on the Jets when you only have one good guy.

QUARTERBACK: Matt Moore has been very productive these last two weeks when he totaled five touchdowns but against the Patriots and Bills was no shock. Against the Jets he only threw for 204 yards and no scores with two interceptions. He was also sacked three times but doing well this week would be a huge push to hanging around next season, if only to tutor a hot new rookie quarterback.

RUNNING BACKS: Daniel Thomas started the season with two big games and then nothing the rest of the way. He still has not scored this year and ran for 47 yards on 15 carries in the previous Jets matchup. He's been a non-factor as a rookie when it was hoped he could be the main runner.

Reggie Bush went from a relative first round flop in New Orleans to a surprise this year when he's suddenly providing primary back stats every week including four straight games over 100 yards. He has scored six times and been progressively getting better as the year wears on. For a supposed role player, he has recently been taking over 20 carries per game.

The Jets biggest weakness by far is against the run and the quickness of Bush helps even more. He gained 71 yards on ten carries in the first meeting when Thomas was being used more and is a lock to improve on those stats. He is a good start this week with a strong shot at a touchdown.

WIDE RECEIVERS : Brandon Marshall started the year a bit slowly but has been on a nice pace since midseason. and scored in four of the last five games. With 1177 yards and six touchdowns, he is back to producing more as he did in Denver. But the problem is that he is received nearly no support from the other wideouts. Brian Hartline scored in the season opener and not since. Unless he is facing a weak secondary, he generally turns in sub-40 yard games. Davone Bess is marginally better with three touchdowns but both players have produced more like a tight end than a wide receiver. It is either Marshall or nothing, pretty much.

Marshall caught six passes for 109 yards in the last meeting with the Jets. There should be little chance of a repeat with a healthy Darrell Revis ready this week.

TIGHT ENDS: Anthony Fasano is still dealing with a concussion and may not be cleared to play. I am removing him from the projections and he only caught one pass in the previous meeting with the Jets anyway.

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM QB RB WR TE PK DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points MIA 21 8 22 23 11 29
Preventing Fantasy Points NYJ 5 15 3 20 24 32

WEEK 17
2011
BAL at CIN DAL at NYG NYJ at MIA SF at STL
BUF at NE DET at GB PIT at CLE TB at ATL
CAR at NO IND at JAC SD at OAK TEN at HOU
  CHI at MIN KC at DEN SEA at ARI WAS at PHI

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