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Predictions & Projections
David Dorey  

Sortable Player Projections | Game Predictions Summary | Projections by Team

WEEK 17
2011
BAL at CIN * DAL at NYG * NYJ at MIA SF at STL
* BUF at NE DET at GB PIT at CLE TB at ATL
CAR at NO * IND at JAC * SD at OAK * TEN at HOU
* UPDATED CHI at MIN * KC at DEN SEA at ARI * WAS at PHI

Prediction: SD 17, OAK 24

Update: Ryan Mathews has been either held out or limited in practices this week because of his calf and he is a game time decision. I am lowering his projections because of his risk.

The Chargers were bounced out last week with their loss to the Lions and now head into Oakland with a 2-5 road record. The Raiders are just 3-4 at home but can win the AFC West if the Broncos lose to the Chiefs and the Chargers fall to the Raiders. This is a replay of week of week 10 when the Chargers lost 17-24 at home. Both the AFC West games are late afternoon so the Raiders cannot know the outcome of the Denver game.

San Diego Chargers
Homefield: Qualcomm Stadium
Grass
  Opp Score   Opp Score
1 MIN 24-17 10 OAK 17-24
2 @NE 21-35 11 @CHI 20-31
3 KC 20-17 12 DEN 13-16
4 MIA 26-16 13 @JAC 38-14
5 @DEN 29-24 14 BUF 37-10
6 Bye - 15 BAL 34-14
7 @NYJ 21-27 16 @DET 10-38
8 @KC 20-23 17 @OAK -
9 GB 38-45      
Chargers Report | Statistics | Roster
SAN DIEGO at OAK Rush Catch Pass
QB Philip Rivers - - 300,2
RB Ryan Mathews 50 20 -
RB Mike Tolbert 20 - -
TE Antonio Gates - 50,1 -
WR Vincent Brown - 50 -
WR Malcolm Floyd - 90,1 -
WR Vincent Jackson - 60 -
WR Patrick Crayton - 20 -
PK Nick Novak 1 FG 2 XP -
Pregame Notes: That six game losing streak that started after the bye was the death knell for this team and the expectation is that Norv Turner is finally going to lose his job in San Diego. This was a year with some injuries but mostly just a string of games where they were never quite good enough and Philip RIvers was not passing as well as usual.

QUARTERBACK: Philip Rivers already has a healthy 434 yards but only 24 touchdowns but along with 21 interceptions and five lost fumbles. Rivers has cleaned up his errant play in recent weeks but has been significantly more likely to have a turnover when away from home. Rivers passed for 274 yards and two touchdowns on the Raiders in week ten but was sacked six times and lost a fumble and an interception.

Rivers should toss a couple more touchdowns here - almost every visitor has in Oakland - along with good yardage.

RUNNING BACKS: Ryan Mathews turned in a season best 137 yards on 22 runs in the last Oakland matchup though neither he nor Michael Tolbert scored. The Raiders have been soft against the run this year but are better at home where only four runners have scored on them. and just one exceeded 100 rushing yards. Expect a lesser showing from Mathews in this road matchup.

WIDE RECEIVERS: Malcolm Floyd did not play in the first meeting but has been on a nice streak of games with 95+ yards in four of his last six played. Vincent Brown had a few good games this year but mostly just hung around with one or two catches per week when everyone was healthy. Brown caught three passes for 50 yards subbing for Floyd in the other game. Vincent Jackson has been enigmatic all year old but has not had a monster game in six weeks and has been limited to mostly 50 yard efforts or so.

There is no magic to the Raiders secondary other than they usually play better against the Chargers. Any of these receivers could catch a touchdown but only one of them likely will. I'll assign it to Floyd as a placeholder.

TIGHT ENDS: Hard to accept that Antonio Gates is ending a season without a single 100 yard effort and just six touchdowns so far. His 672 yards are about half what we used to expect and his foot has been a factor for most of the year. Gates caught one score and six passes for 49 yards in week ten. That's a good expectation from this week as well.

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM QB RB WR TE PK DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points SD 10 3 12 9 9 26
Preventing Fantasy Points OAK 30 26 29 13 18 25


Oakland Raiders
Homefield: McAfee Coliseum
Grass
  Opp Score   Opp Score
1 @DEN 23-20 10 @SD 24-17
2 @BUF 35-38 11 @MIN 27-21
3 NYJ 34-24 12 CHI 25-20
4 NE 19-31 13 @MIA 14-34
5 @HOU 25-20 14 @GB 16-46
6 CLE 24-17 15 DET 27-28
7 KC 0-28 16 @KC 16-13
8 Bye - 17 SD -
9 DEN 24-38      
Raiders Report | Statistics | Roster
OAKLAND vs SD Rush Catch Pass
QB Carson Palmer - - 320,2
RB Michael Bush 90,1 20 -
TE Kevin Boss - 30 -
WR Jacoby Ford - 50 -
WR Denarius Moore - 80,1 -
WR Darrius Heyward-Bey - 70,1 -
PK Sebastian Janikowski 1 FG 3 XP -

Pregame Notes: The season stated out with great promise as Darren McFadden was finally delivering on his potential as a stud running back. After six impressive games, he was out again with another foot injury. It was even darker when Jason Campbell went down and turned the team over to Kyle Boller but then Carson Palmer showed up as a horribly over paid, over-the-hill quarterback who fit in perfectly. Palmer has supplied an element that has been missing for decades in Oakland. Now if the wideouts would ever remain healthy.

QUARTERBACK: Carson Palmer has been a great addition to the Raiders and in week ten experienced his first win as a Raider. He threw for 299 yards and two scores with one interception in San Diego. He has passed a touchdown in every start and thrown for around 300 yards in half of his games. The weaker part of the Charger is the secondary and Palmer has already tore them up once. Expect a nice game here with at least two scores and high yardage again.

RUNNING BACKS: What a great pick Michael Bush ended up to be this year. He has scored eight times while turning in between 70 to 100+ total yards in almost every start. Not bad for someone who was only expected to be the complement to Darren McFadden. Bush has rushed for over 90 yards in four of his eight starts. He gained a season best 157 yards and one score on 30 runs in the last meeting with the Chargers and added 85 yards on three receptions. Consider Bush a must start this weekend at home though the gaudy number from week ten are too much to hope for.

WIDE RECEIVERS: The Raiders may have a nice set of wideouts but since they are often injured it is hard to say. Jacoby Ford turned in a 105 yard, one score game in week nine but has been out for the last six weeks. Denarius Moore has produced three big games this year and yet more often games of almost no production. Darrius Heyward-Bey was having a breakout season until Big Al passed away and then spent three mysterious weeks mostly on the bench. This is an inconsistent group to be sure but one that has seen numerous receivers hit it big at least on occasion.

In the last meeting, Heyward-Bey was benched, Ford (1-41) was injured and Moore (5-123, 2 TD) was the big difference maker. This remains a tough group to call but at least they should be healthier this week than before.

TIGHT ENDS: No fantasy value.

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM QB RB WR TE PK DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points OAK 19 4 13 28 13 15
Preventing Fantasy Points SD 20 13 12 19 11 24

WEEK 17
2011
BAL at CIN DAL at NYG NYJ at MIA SF at STL
BUF at NE DET at GB PIT at CLE TB at ATL
CAR at NO IND at JAC SD at OAK TEN at HOU
  CHI at MIN KC at DEN SEA at ARI WAS at PHI

a d v e r t i s e m e n t