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camps are only a few weeks away in the NFL, and already
there have been major shake-ups on the defensive rosters.
High-profile rookies are expected to contribute quickly
(Suggs, Newman, etc.)… which will pan out to become
IDP contributors? Elite free agents have been picked up
by teams with varying degrees of complexity and chemistry… do
they still hold the same value as last year?
IDP has fast become more and more prevalent in fantasy
leagues across the country, and we at The Huddle look
forward to answering the critical questions and providing
you with current and accurate analysis that will allow
you to flourish and dominate in your league. This analysis
will consist of:
Pre-Draft Rankings
From now until the start of the season, I will offer
weekly, value-based rankings of defensive linemen, linebackers
and defensive backs. The methodology is one I’ve
used for several years, and is composed of:
1) Past-Performance - In assigning projections, I look
at how the player performed both during the entire previous
year, and in the last 4 games of the year. If a starting
player is a rookie, or a veteran involved in a trade
or free-agent move, I also look at his predecessor’s
production, and how these numbers might be affected by
a superior or inferior player. Lastly, if there is a
change in coaching or scheme, I anticipate how the IDP’s
performance will be effected.
The scoring system I will use is the following:
Solo Tackle = 2 points
Assisted Tackle = 1 point
Fumble Recovery = 2 points
Safety = 2 points
Sack = 6 points
Touchdown = 6 points
Interception = 10 points
2) Intangibles - Once I have projected points per game,
I then evaluate IDP’s for additional criteria that
will have a bearing on performance. If a player is playing
in the last year of his contract, odds are he will perform
at his highest level. If a player participated in all
eligible, regular season games last year, he has proven
himself to be dependable and tough, and is rewarded accordingly.
I also believe that if an IDP is surrounded by best-in-class
talent at the other positions, he will be better allowed
to perform at his best. For example, if a DB has one
or two defensive linemen that are in the top tier of
projected rankings, it safe to assume that there will
be a fair share of QB hurries and better chances for
interceptions. Lastly, I take into account strength of
schedule. Against an “easy” schedule, your
DL and DB corps should prosper, as the opposing team
will likely fall behind and resort to passing situations.
Therefore, the opportunities for sacks, INTs and tackles
down field increase. Against a “hard” schedule,
LB corps should prosper, as the better opponent will
tend to protect its lead by running the ball to chew
up time. The more run plays, the more opportunities to
accumulate tackles in between the gaps and in the flats.
Once projections are established, I assign rankings
and values based on the number of league owners and number
of starters per position. Typically, there are between
8-12 teams in a league – I use 12 teams in my analysis.
Then, I account for 1 DL, either 3 or 4 LBs, and either1
or 2 DBs. Rankings provide you order. Values give you
an equal playing field by which to evaluate individual
defensive and offensive players alike.
Who To Start/Who To Sit
Once the NFL season begins and you’ve drafted
your teams, I will analyze each game and the offense/defense
match-ups and provide a list of IDP’s to start
or sit. I look at how a particular IDP has played against
an opposing team in the recent past, as well as how he’s
played against similar offensive match-ups against other
teams. I will also take into account how similar IDP’s
performed in week’s past against the current week’s
offensive opposition. While I will be performing this
in-depth analysis week in, week out, I will always stress
the importance of starting your studs (Ray Lewis, Warren
Sapp, Rodney Harrison, etc.). If you are fortunate to
draft someone of this caliber at his position, do not
hesitate or waste time digging into numbers… ALWAYS
START YOUR STUD!
Team Defenses
Last year, there was a call from members to provide
a ranking of team defenses, as not everyone has evolved
into the incorporation of IDP into their leagues. In
breaking down team defenses down to the individual player
level, it is therefore that much easier to determine
which team D’s will prosper, week-to-week. So,
look for a top 10 team defenses attached to my weekly
contributions.
There you have it… I hope you all are as excited
about this year’s fantasy football season – and
the new look of The Huddle – as I am! As always,
I welcome your questions, comments and suggestions throughout
the year – email me, and I will respond as quickly
as possible!
Thanks, good luck, and happy drafting!
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