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As draft day nears, it is imperative that you have a strategy
in place and ready to execute. Perhaps you've created
values for your offensive and defensive players based on
their projected stats, the number of teams in your league,
draft location, and (see the IDP pre-rankings) other intangibles
that will have an impact on the production of each player. Based
on this analysis, you have likely created a realistic scenario
for what players should be available in each round's pick. If
so, great job. you're ahead of 90% of rest of the folks
in your league and should field a competitive team.
Still, there is an old saying that the folks at NASA use:
Plans are meaningless. planning is everything. What does
this mean? Well, in preparing for a space shuttle flight,
plans are nailed down by some of the most brilliant minds
in the civilized world. Flights are simulated. equipment
is checked and double-checked. Everything is rehearsed
and prepared for so that each launch goes off without a
hitch. However, in each and every space shuttle flight,
astronauts have had to react to something that was not
planned for or for mistakes made. All of the months' training,
excruciating project management and engineering were rendered
obsolete. Instead, it was the astronauts' ability to adapt,
anticipate. change direction while in the midst of intense
pressure, that allowed for successful missions to be completed.
Where am I going with this, you ask? The analogy is simple. You
may have a plan that says you will end up with a stud RB
in round one, a stud WR in round 2, and a solid LB in round
3. But in the midst of the draft, when competition is
fierce and intensity is flowing, you may find yourself
in situations you hadn't planned for. You may have landed
your stud RB in round one, but find in round two that the
stud WR and LB you thought would be there in subsequent
rounds are not. Are you prepared to think on your feet
and make a strong, calculated draft selection, even if
you find yourself in unchartered waters? Well, we at The
Huddle are here to help, and I would like to really focus
on drafting strategy for defensive players.
Now, I've made my projections for every starting offensive
and defensive player. I've tried to anticipate how intangibles,
such as health, contract year, teammates and strength of
schedule, will effect how each player produces. And I've
created a value for each player based on the number of
teams that are in my league. In utilizing these values,
everything should fall into place if I believe in the values
I've assigned. Just select the player with the highest
value left on the board, and I should be golden with a
rockin' line up, right? Not necessarily. Four factors
must be accounted for prior to draft day:
Roster Allocation and Projections
| QB |
Jeff Garcia |
| QB |
Kerry Collins |
| QB |
Jake Plummer |
| RB |
Edgerrin James |
| RB |
James Stewart |
| RB |
Mike Alstott |
| RB |
Antowain Smith |
| RB |
Garrison Hearst |
| WR |
Eric Moulds |
| WR |
Donald Driver |
| WR |
Jeremy Shockey |
| WR |
Keenan McCardell |
| WR |
Ashlie Lehlie |
| WR |
Johnnie Morton |
| DL |
Jason Taylor |
| LB |
Dexter Coakley |
| LB |
London Fletcher |
| LB |
Randall Godfrey |
| LB |
Matt Stewart |
| LB |
Napoleon Harris |
| LB |
Derrick Rodgers |
| DB |
Mike Brown |
| DB |
Darren Sharper |
Based on your roster size and the number of players you
can start in each game, determine the ideal distribution
by position you would like to see in your line up. In
my league, we have 24 rounds and start 1 QB, 1 RB, 3 WR,
1 flex RB/WR/TE, 1 K, 1 DE, 1 DB, 3 LB, and 1 flex LB/DB/DL. I
like to start 2 RBs and 4 LBs, so my ideal line up is composed
of:
2-3 QBs - would lean towards 2, but would take 3 if a
legitimate QB could be had late.
4-5 RBs - 5 is ideal. the deeper the better at RB, and pick team backups for
studs.
6-7 WRs - I typically end up with 6, and like to pick them up in the early-mid
rounds.
1 K
1-2 DLs - difference in value at DL is minimal, so I tend to stick with only
1.
2-3 DBs - getting a stud DB is imperative, and I tend to focus on strong safeties.
6-7 LBs - I load up on LBs. the RBs of IDP, with regard to value.
Once you have an ideal roster distribution determined,
you can project -- based on your draft location -- the
caliber of player you will end up with in each round. In
the 11th position, to the right you will see the projected
lineup I ended up with based on values and desired roster
allocation (I left out kickers, as I always use my last
pick in the draft anyway).
A respectable line up, if the draft goes like clockwork. but
it never does.
Tiering
| Tier One |
Pos |
Team |
Bye |
Pts/Gm |
Value |
| Jason Taylor |
DE |
MIA |
4 |
16.56 |
4.1 |
| Julius Peppers |
DE |
CAR |
3 |
14.92 |
2.5 |
| Simeon Rice |
DE |
TB |
4 |
14.38 |
1.9 |
| Hugh Douglas |
DE |
JAC |
7 |
13.50 |
1.1 |
| Tier Two |
Pos |
Team |
Bye |
Pts/Gm |
Value |
| Eric Hicks |
DE |
KC |
9 |
13.31 |
0.9 |
| Andre Carter |
DE |
SF |
10 |
13.31 |
0.9 |
| Greg Ellis |
DE |
DAL |
3 |
13.27 |
0.8 |
| Mike Rucker |
DE |
CAR |
3 |
13.13 |
0.7 |
| Warren Sapp |
DT |
TB |
4 |
12.94 |
0.5 |
| Patrick Kerney |
DE |
ATL |
8 |
12.88 |
0.4 |
| John Abraham |
DE |
NYJ |
5 |
12.63 |
0.2 |
| Tier Three |
Pos |
Team |
Bye |
Pts/Gm |
Value |
| Trevor Pryce |
DE |
DEN |
10 |
12.44 |
0.0 |
| John Henderson |
DT |
JAC |
7 |
11.75 |
-0.7 |
| Vonnie Holliday |
DE |
KC |
9 |
11.53 |
-0.9 |
| Leonard Little |
DE |
STL |
5 |
11.50 |
-0.9 |
| Jevon Kearse |
DE |
TEN |
9 |
11.50 |
-0.9 |
| Daryl Gardner |
DT |
DEN |
10 |
11.20 |
-1.2 |
| Michael Strahan |
DE |
NYG |
4 |
11.13 |
-1.3 |
| Phillip Daniels |
DE |
CHI |
3 |
11.08 |
-1.4 |
| Dwight Freeney |
DE |
IND |
7 |
11.00 |
-1.4 |
| Adewale Ogunleye |
DE |
MIA |
4 |
10.94 |
-1.5 |
| La'Roi Glover |
DT |
DAL |
3 |
10.69 |
-1.8 |
| Bertrand Berry |
DE |
DEN |
10 |
10.69 |
-1.8 |
| John Browning |
DT |
KC |
9 |
10.69 |
-1.8 |
You cannot draft by value alone. the odds of meeting your
roster allocation goals would be too great. Take it one
step further. Based on the values assigned, create tiers
of players at every position. I typically have 4-5 tiers
based on value at the position, and what this does is give
you a smaller field to analyze when you know you need to
fill a roster spot. As you progress through your draft
and players are chosen by the opposition, simply remove
them from their respective tier. When your selection comes
up and you know you need to fill a position, you will be
prepared to select the best player tiered at that position. This
is one of the easiest ways to prepare for the draft - do
it, because your best competitors will. To the right is
an example of how I've tiered my Defensive Linemen.
Because there are 12 teams in the league, I am fairly
certain there will be no more than 24 DLs drafted, as teams
will typically only start one and may keep one on the bench. I
will typically draft DLs fairly late in the draft, so I
will diligently track who's been selected prior to when
I am comfortable picking my player. Once I reach my threshold,
and I see that all of the tier one and tier of the tier
two DLs have been selected, it is simply a matter of selecting
the highest value player in tier two. In late rounds,
if you want to draft a backup, select your next highest
value player while paying attention to the bye week.
Drafting within the Position
In my overall ranking based on value, 6 of the top 20
players are linebackers. Does this mean that I ought to
draft 3 linebackers during the first 4-5 rounds? Absolutely
not. Rather, I am fairly confident that I will be drafting
two RBs with my first two picks. Why? Because the drop
off in talent and value after the first 12-15 RBs is mind-bogglingly
huge. While LBs definitely rate high in my overall rankings,
I am fairly confident that even if I don't land Urlacher
or Lewis, I will be able to land 4-5 very good LBs and
do not have to sacrifice a top 5 round pick to do so. Of
the top 48 LBs, only 8.4 points per game separate Brian
Urlacher and Raynoch Thompson. Of the top 24 RBs (half
the number of LBs), a considerable 10.6 points per game
separate the field. So, while it is definitely important
to secure a solid core of LBs (DBs and DLs, as well), you
can be intelligent about when over the course of the draft
to select your players.
Understanding the Competition
I play in a fairly sophisticated and competitive league
when it comes to IDP. Having used IDP for several years
now, the owners understand that it is just as important
to field a competent defensive roster as on offense. That
is why LBs typically start flying off the board in the
2nd or 3rd round. As a result, I
anticipate making my defensive moves shortly thereafter,
perhaps selecting my first linebacker in the 4th or
5th round. Your league may be different, and
it certainly pays great dividends finding out the caliber
of competition you will be facing on draft day before hand. If
you are fairly confident that over half of the other owners
either haven't prepared or aren't experienced in IDP, you
can be fairly certain that an excellent defensive roster
can be had in later rounds. Understanding this allows
you to establish a superior offensive, while not having
to sacrifice anything on defense. To recap, find out who
your fellow owners are and determine their level of IDP
expertise. it could make draft day that much more fun!
The bottom line is that you cannot be over-prepared for
draft day, especially if your league utilizes IDP. By
taking all of the precautionary measures: assign values
to each offensive and defensive player; plan your roster
allocation and projected caliber of player; sort each position
into tiers based on how many players you believe will be
drafted; understand the dynamics within each position - a
high value doesn't necessarily dictate a high round pick;
and, lastly, understanding the level of competition before
draft day can result in stronger fantasy personnel on both
sides of the ball.
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