Still, this level of analysis does offer a valuable insight into the nature of fantasy defenses. Over the past five seasons, defenses have scored less though most of that is attributable to the top two or three teams from the earlier years not being matched in recent years. After the top three or four defenses, each season has been fairly similar overall.

After those top six defenses, there is less than a five percent difference from year to year in the next best 18 defenses. The trend line for each season almost mirrors each other after the top six defenses. Simply said, defenses wait until the later rounds in most drafts because the reality is that getting the #5 defense or the #12 defense usually ends up about one point per game difference. Makes a good case for changing standard performance for defenses to make bigger point awards or include negative points.

But how well can the past season predict the future one for defenses? It is an entire squad of players, much more likely to maintain their level from season to season than an individual player. Or so it would seem.

The reality is actually rather different than theory. The theory that defenses repeat their performances is as reasonable as the childhood theory that bed sheets make good parachutes. However, in application both tend to leave you smarting for the experience.

Remember that the last five years has seen only the very top defenses yield any competitive advantage. And yet relying on a historical view that uses just the last season has resulted in some disappointing draft picks. The best six defenses of the prior year have only repeated as a top six defense the next year twice in the past four years! Not one of the top three defenses has repeated as a top three the next year! And I hate using exclamation points!

Selecting a Top six defense from the prior season has resulted in only about a third of them even making it back to being a Top 12 defense (AKA starting fantasy defense). The only consistency in a defense from one year to the next is that the best ones are almost locks not to repeat. Their biggest advantage is looking like you scored some coup in your draft when you take the hot defense from the prior season.

This would indicate that the group of TB, PHI, GB, NO, CAR and OAK are very likely to fall this season in fantasy points and the trend says they all will fall.

Taking a defense that was ranked 7th to 12th best the prior season has been actually better than a previous Top 6 defense for getting a top spot, but normally only one of the six actually rises, the majority of them will fall. Do you feel lucky, punk? Well? Do you? Out of ATL, BAL, PIT, NE, DET and SD, which one can rise up higher into the Top 6?

The bottom line to defenses as shown by the past five years is that not only is there no such thing as a "lock" the next year, but that your chances actually improve by not taking a top defense the previous season. Under the scoring used, there is not a lot of difference between defensive scoring for a season anyway, and predicting who will be on top the next season is made even harder by the absence of past history as a key. In short, normal scoring for defenses that only uses sacks, safeties, turnovers and touchdowns results in wildly fluctuating performances from season to season.

Let me repeat again the most important fact - overall, defenses do not tend to separate themselves enough to make them worthy of an early pick (using standard defensive scoring). Scoring taken at a season level is very smoothly descending in a gentle curve. Having the best defense each season versus the worst starting defense (ranked 12th) has not meant more than one or two extra points a week. Compare that to the ten to fifteen point difference between first and twelfth ranked runningbacks for example.

This suggests one main theory for defenses that can be considered reasonable. Don't squander a high pick on a defense when there are still sleeper receivers, tight ends or runningbacks to take. Try to get two "middle of the pack" defenses instead of grabbing an early "hot team" and then waiting until the end to back them up. Chances are very good that your second defenses will be needed for more than a bye week filler and two middle of the road defenses can be mixed and matched against the most attractive weekly opponent.