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5 Year Fantasy Analysis - Kickers
by David M. Dorey
July 11, 2003

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Running Back

Wide Receiver

Tight End

Kickers

Defenses

	1998	Pts	1999	Pts	2000	Pts	2001	Pts	2002	Pts
1	G Anderson	164	M Vanderjagt	145	M Stover	135	J Wilkins	127	J Feely	138
2	S Christie	140	O Mare	144	R Longwell	131	M Vanderjagt	125	D Akers	133
3	A Del Greco	136	T Peterson	134	J Nedney	126	J Elam	124	J Carney	130
4	R Longwell	128	M Hollis	130	M Gramatica	126	K Brown	124	R Longwell	128
5	J Elam	127	J Wilkins	124	D Akers	121	M Stover	115	M Gramatica	128
6	Cunningham	127	J Elam	116	M Vanderjagt	121	D Akers	115	S Janikowski	128
7	A Vinatieri	125	M Stover	116	A Del Greco	118	J Feely	115	J Elam	120
8	M Andersen	120	J Carney	115	O Mare	117	J Carney	113	M Andersen	117
9	J Hall	120	B Conway	115	S Janikowski	112	A Vinatieri	113	A Vinatieri	117
10	Stoyanovich	115	R Longwell	113	G Anderson	111	P Edinger	112	M Hollis	115
11	J Hanson	114	J Hall	108	S Christie	109	S Janikowski	111	O Mare	114
12	M Hollis	108	S Christie	108	K Brown	107	T Peterson	108	J Nedney	111
13	Vanderjagt	104	P Stoyanovich	108	D Brien	106	J Hall	104	M Bryant	108
14	W Richey	103	A Vinatieri	107	A Vinatieri	106	R Longwell	104	J Hall	107
15	N Johnson	99	M Gramatica	106	M Hollis	105	J Cortez	101	R Lindell	107
16	O Mare	99	J Hanson	106	J Elam	103	B Conway	100	J Cortez	103
17	T Peterson	98	A Del Greco	106	T Seder	102	M Andersen	98	M Vanderjagt	103
18	J Carney	97	K Brown	105	J Hanson	101	M Gramatica	97	J Hanson	100
19	B Daluiso	95	G Anderson	103	M Andersen	98	O Mare	96	P Dawson	100
20	M Husted	92	J Kasay	99	J Hall	93	P Dawson	95	M Stover	96
21	J Kasay	92	W Richey	93	J Wilkins	89	J Nedney	94	P Edinger	95
22	D Brien	91	D Brien	92	W Richey	88	R Lindell	93	J Wilkins	94
23	J Jaeger	90	M Husted	90	B Daluiso	85	J Kasay	91	G Anderson	90
24	M Stover	87	Cunningham	89	P Edinger	84	W Richey	89	S Christie	89

Rank	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002
1	164	145	135	127	138
2	140	144	131	125	133
3	136	134	126	124	130
4	128	130	126	124	128
5	127	124	121	115	128
6	127	116	121	115	128
Top 6	822	793	760	730	785
7	125	116	118	115	120
8	120	115	117	113	117
9	120	115	112	113	117
10	115	113	111	112	115
11	114	108	109	111	114
12	108	108	107	108	111
7 - 12	702	675	674	672	694
13	104	108	106	104	108
14	103	107	106	104	107
15	99	106	105	101	107
16	99	106	103	100	103
17	98	106	102	98	103
18	97	105	101	97	100
19	95	103	98	96	100
20	92	99	93	95	96
21	92	93	89	94	95
22	91	92	88	93	94
23	90	90	85	91	90
24	87	89	84	89	89
13-24	1147	1204	1160	1162	1192
Total	2671	2672	2594	2564	2671

Ah yes, those wonderful kickers.

Kickers had been showing a downward trend in scoring at the upper levels for four years until last season had a mild increase to stop the trend. As shown to the right, in most seasons the difference between the very best kicker and the sixth overall kicker is typically about a dozen points over the course of a season.

The difference between the best kicker and the 12th, or last starting fantasy kicker is much more pronounced and ends up about one or two points per game. It makes a difference, albeit small, but having the difference makers is what a championship team is all about.

Every team wants to have a 100 point kicker and last season saw 19 different kickers reach the mark, a five year high. There is depth, of sorts, but with no more than two points per game separating the best from the 12th best indicates either you find the top guy or play mix and match each week - a big challenge for this position. As always, a kicker's opportunity relies not on what he can do, but how close the offense gets to the endzone before stalling.

In the world of short memories, the last season always weighs heaviest in the minds of people ranking their kickers. However, the top six kickers - those that made a difference for the pick - only show one kicker repeating the feat the following season. 2000 witnessed a record three remain consistently high, but it is a safe bet that 2000 was the anomaly, not a new trend.

If you remove Jason Elam and Mike Vanderjagt from the equation, there was almost no kicker repeating the

Top 6 kicker next year became:
	98	99	00	01
Top 6	1	1	3	1
7-12	2	1	0	1
13-24	3	3	3	3
Duds	0	1	0	1

next year. Those of you that grabbed Vanderjagt last year were taught that even he was not above a nosedive.

Those kickers that fell in the 7th to 12th rank the prior season were actually a little better at reaching the top six the following year than were those that had reached it the prior year. Still, most seasons see these 7th to 12th kickers more likely fall the next year than rise, though 2002 had a record three kickers (Feely, Carney and Janikowski) rise up to the highest level after a solid yet unspectacular season in 2001. What does this all mean?

6th to 12th kicker next year became:
	98	99	00	01
Top 6	1	2	1	3
7-12	1	1	1	1
13-24	3	1	1	1
Duds	1	2	3	1

Kickers are not worthless, but their value is exceedingly difficult to determine based on prior factors. The best kickers almost exclusively come from playoff-bound teams that are scoring well. Kicker success is largely the product of the offense. They have no plays to learn, no real chemistry to create and no particular development is needed. They tee it up and kick it straight and the main component of their value is how often they get to do that. When selecting a kicker, you are actually selecting an offense more than a person.

Quarterback

Running Back

Wide Receiver

Tight End

Kickers

Defenses